Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM always runs warm. Not sure it is worth much to even look at the temps on it. there is no point to using it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Pretty impressive that the GEFS is coming in 1+ inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM basically stalls the low over Richmond for 24 straight hours. It would be an incredible storm out here if the temps are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 who cares?...It is garbage and has no place in a weather discussion 4DVAr! it was as good as the Euro last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Given the soundings, I'd peg the first ~0.3" as rain and the last ~0.4" as snow at DCA. Just rough estimates though. I think it may even be a bit more % snow than that.....problem is really just rates....though light snow is fun to watch...and a model run 4 days out doesnt make it any less fun...i figure the 35-36 at the surface becomes 33-34 if we get 1/8-1/4 viz snow and then it sticks no matter what....so I guess I am saying what everyone else is.....we need heavy rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't care what the temps are...I want massive heavy precip. If rain...so be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't care what the temps are...I want massive heavy precip. If rain...so be it i agree....but it wont be rain for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 My bad. I must have got it confused with another event in Feb. 82. When I saw the one you are talking about was on a Sunday that confirmed I was wrong. The one I was thinking of was during the middle of the week. Sorry I was so fast to correct you. No biggie-- when I moved down here I studied up on climo. Even before I had the KU book I could name and quote amounts of snow in New Castle Delaware for about every event since 1978-- It's almost sick. Looked like a fun event down here. LYH also had a big snow event Feb 16th 1987 12 inches-- the third of the season BEFORE the Feb 22, 87 event-- that was mostly rain here, ending as an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 4DVAr! it was as good as the Euro last week. ha...I know people have their rationalizations, but we all know the GGEM is an awful model...just terrible....and we know the 18zGFS is unreliable and goofy for our backyard despite what DTK and others might say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM and NAVGEM have actually done fairly well since the upgrades they got a few weeks ago FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM and NAVGEM have actually done fairly well since the upgrades they got a few weeks ago FWIW that is a 3 week sample size...and if true we are elevating that model to varsity status based om a 3 week sample? THE GGEM SUCKS....It has absolutely no role in a winter storm discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ha...I know people have their rationalizations, but we all know the GGEM is an awful model...just terrible....and we know the 18zGFS is unreliable and goofy for our backyard despite what DTK and others might say im willing to see how it performs over the next few months but i've never really cared what it said in the past. the best is people on CWG FB saying the UKMET is a great model. there's been a massive failure in showing models to the public and explaining how they work. it needs to be rectified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think if I were depending upon this holding position or even trending south to get snow I'd be nervous right now. Looking at GFS trends, srefs, NAM, gfs ens members, I think there's mounting reason to think this may still come further north, at least early. I dont remember a low in the OV like some solutions are showing until recent runs. Maybe it doesn't matter. Maybe it's only the low position along the coast that matters, but it seems low pressure back in the OV would mean warmer temps, at least for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS/EURO combo seems pretty nice for our area... as many have said we need good rates to get accums and it does appear that N and W of I-95 is the area to be for now... biggest EURO run of our lives coming up Will be interesting to see if the EC shifts north slightly in response to what the GFS did... plus I would expect the QPF to be cut down just a tad, I think EC is too QPF happy with this system as it is nearly double the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 im willing to see how it performs over the next few months but i've never really cared what it said in the past. the best is people on CWG FB saying the UKMET is a great model. there's been a massive failure in showing models to the public and explaining how they work. it needs to be rectified. Not sure I agree with this. Most of the general public doesn't even know what a snowfall "gradient" is. The will see one model that has snow and that's all they will see. It would be counterproductive IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not sure I agree with this. Most of the general public doesn't even know what a snowfall "gradient" is. The will see one model that has snow and that's all they will see. It would be counterproductive IMO. im talking the public who follows something like CWG on facebook etc. you see a ton of comments about the GFS sucking etc. these are not your random people who watch the weather on the news.. they are at least informed enough to know what they are looking at in general. the discussion has been poisoned by people with agendas framing it wrong... i think it would be a huge step back to only use one model. the euro has lots of big wins but also fails pretty often at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 im willing to see how it performs over the next few months but i've never really cared what it said in the past. the best is people on CWG FB saying the UKMET is a great model. there's been a massive failure in showing models to the public and explaining how they work. it needs to be rectified. It is a decent model, but nobody has good graphics or output for it so it is of little use to anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 im talking the public who follows something like CWG on facebook etc. you see a ton of comments about the GFS sucking etc. these are not your random people who watch the weather on the news.. they are at least informed enough to know what they are looking at in general. the discussion has been poisoned by people with agendas framing it wrong... i think it would be a huge step back to only use one model. the euro has lots of big wins but also fails pretty often at range. ahhh, ok. Was starting to wonder about you there for a minute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ha...I know people have their rationalizations, but we all know the GGEM is an awful model...just terrible....and we know the 18zGFS is unreliable and goofy for our backyard despite what DTK and others might say On that point, I've always felt that visually for some reason, the off runs do not seem to have as much info as the 0z and 12 z runs. Because it looks as if the main runs make adjustments. I know, it doesn't make much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 7 of the GFS ensembles members still have decent precip in the area at 120 (as in .1+ QPF), which leads me to believe the OP is still to far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On that point, I've always felt that visually for some reason, the off runs do not seem to have as much info as the 0z and 12 z runs. Because it looks as if the main runs make adjustments. I know, it doesn't make much sense. It makes sense because the 0z and 12z runs are the runs with the new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ahhh, ok. Was starting to wonder about you there for a minute! there are waaaaaay more people who talk about the models these days than even 2 or 3 years ago. most don't really understand the bias aspect and how to use them all together from what i've gathered. there has been a proliferation of "only use the euro" of late.. from mets.. which imo is bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 7 of the GFS ensembles members still have decent precip in the area at 120 (as in .1+ QPF), which leads me to believe the OP is still to far SE I think so as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 there are waaaaaay more people who talk about the models these days than even 2 or 3 years ago. most don't really understand the bias aspect and how to use them all together from what i've gathered. there has been a proliferation of "only use the euro" of late.. from mets.. which imo is bizarre. Yeah. I have to wonder if these "mets" were asleep during synoptic and modeling/forecasting class ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It makes sense because the 0z and 12z runs are the runs with the new data. That's not true. DTK has stated till he's blue in the face that the 6 & 18z have the most up to date ships, surface, and plane obs @ init. Those runs should never be thrown out but the 0-12z given the most weight. There has been many times that the 6 & 18z sniffed a shift first and the main runs followed suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What MIGHT be skewing the GEFS QPF mean is at 108, 6 of the ensembles show an area of 1" QPF over top of us or very close to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not sure I agree with this. Most of the general public doesn't even know what a snowfall "gradient" is. The will see one model that has snow and that's all they will see. It would be counterproductive IMO. Yeah, people hear what they want and remember as such. I'm sure someone will remember last nights ECMWF as a local mets forecast. Always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That's not true. DTK has stated till he's blue in the face that the 6 & 18z have the most up to date ships, surface, and plane obs @ init. Those runs should never be thrown out but the 0-12z given the most weight. There has been many times that the 6 & 18z sniffed a shift first and the main runs followed suit. That is probably true but I don't think those change the models as much as the new upper air data does and that only comes out every 00z and 12z. I have seen many changes in the 6z and 18z runs, but I was telling him that is probably why he thinks he sees more noticeable changes on the 00z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What MIGHT be skewing the GEFS QPF mean is at 108, 6 of the ensembles show an area of 1" QPF over top of us or very close to us But there also are no complete whiffs anymore and there are quite a few like the ones you mention that hammer us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 there are only 14 more GFS runs before the precip starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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