Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Good graphic. Even with an additional nwrd shift, this still is an even that is likely to better for the north and west crowd than DCA and mby. agreed. My expectations are quite low. Unless we get blasted I'd not expect a lot of a accum in the city even with an all day snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Hey Wes, I like how the 540 line is so far south. I'm wondering if snow will accumulate only on grass in the cities with some light general accumulation at night. The famous 1958 storm had slop near sea level in DC and Balto. with historic amounts at elevation. Good graphic. Even with an additional nwrd shift, this still is an even that is likely to better for the north and west crowd than DCA and mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Given the soundings, I'd peg the first ~0.3" as rain and the last ~0.4" as snow at DCA. Just rough estimates though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Given the soundings, I'd peg the first ~0.3" as rain and the last ~0.4" as snow at DCA. Just rough estimates though. Groovey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 lol GGEM takes the low just south of Richmond and we go to rain after starting as snow. Out to hr 110 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS coming around it seems in the end, if I had my choice, I'd pick CHO as the place to be, but that's just gut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS coming around it seems in the end, if I had my choice, I'd pick CHO as the place to be, but that's just gut yeah .. the qpf max hasn't moved all that much even with the northern edge expanding. one thing i think we want is to get off the edge. the edge is a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 yeah .. the qpf max hasn't moved all that much even with the northern edge expanding. one thing i think we want is to get off the edge. the edge is a problem. it was either MAR 82' or 83' when central VA had a big event and BWI missed out I think I recall DCA even seeing snow but we just had virga the only details I can recall was being really pi$$ed this event is reminding me of that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS coming around it seems in the end, if I had my choice, I'd pick CHO as the place to be, but that's just gut My concern is the GFS is MUCH warmer down my way -- ECMWF is a mix or snow end to end. GFS has a TON of rain. Agree on CHO being bullzeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 yeah .. the qpf max hasn't moved all that much even with the northern edge expanding. one thing i think we want is to get off the edge. the edge is a problem. If the euro didn't do the jog se last night then it would have been a big precip hit. 12z gfs and 0z euro are pretty close overall. Considering the latest gfs runs, I would think the euro comes out with an e-ne track without a jog se. It's a shame this wasn't happening 3-4 weeks ago. Being on the edge wouldn't matter. But here were are facing another challenging and heartbreaking chance at snow. At least we have a lot of practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 it was either MAR 82' or 83' when central VA had a big event and BWI missed out I think I recall DCA even seeing snow but we just had virga the only details I can recall was being really pi$$ed this event is reminding me of that storm Feb 27-28 1982. 12 inches in LYH. Capped off a nice winter down here-- 35 inches or so total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 My concern is the GFS is MUCH warmer down my way -- ECMWF is a mix or snow end to end. GFS has a TON of rain. Agree on CHO being bullzeye. Agree on temps comment.. the QPF maps are misleading because there are hours of rain on the GFS before it changes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NAVGEM has a ton of precip down by Williamsburg, no idea on ptype. Nearly an inch up by the DC metro, probably a sloppy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 lol GGEM takes the low just south of Richmond and we go to rain after starting as snow. Out to hr 110 Very wet run also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If the euro didn't do the jog se last night then it would have been a big precip hit. 12z gfs and 0z euro are pretty close overall. Considering the latest gfs runs, I would think the euro comes out with an e-ne track without a jog se. It's a shame this wasn't happening 3-4 weeks ago. Being on the edge wouldn't matter. But here were are facing another challenging and heartbreaking chance at snow. At least we have a lot of practice. I think the banding aspect as that h5 low crosses NC is WAY up in the air. They tend to end up further north and west.. March 09 was supposed to crush Greensboro and Got me--460 between Roanoke and LYH was jackpot. Feb 19th last year-- CHO got some sweet action that was under forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z GFS snow maps seem to like NW VA... DCA gets some good snow - as in breaks the 2" barrier (aka Raleigh, waiting for Earl Barker) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Feb 27-28 1982. 12 inches in LYH. Capped off a nice winter down here-- 35 inches or so total. Pretty sure that's not the strom he's talking about. I think that one got BWI pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If the euro didn't do the jog se last night then it would have been a big precip hit. 12z gfs and 0z euro are pretty close overall. Considering the latest gfs runs, I would think the euro comes out with an e-ne track without a jog se. It's a shame this wasn't happening 3-4 weeks ago. Being on the edge wouldn't matter. But here were are facing another challenging and heartbreaking chance at snow. At least we have a lot of practice. True on the Euro. Probably would have been less than 12z but not as dramatic without that weird SE hop. I want to get banded hard. Nothing else will do. A mo earlier would be great.. The edge is always a problem in modeling tho so I'd rather have some buffer there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Pretty sure that's not the strom he's talking about. I think that one got BWI pretty good. Here are BWI's obs for that day--27th was bone dry too. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/1982/2/28/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NAhttp://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/1982/2/28/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Here is LYH http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLYH/1982/2/27/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA I recall this event- I lived in Delaware at the time. Early thoughts in DElaware were that we'd get snow and it was suppressed. My parents went skiing that weekend and bought me a sled while I stayed at my grandparents. It didn't snow and I was bummed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z GEFS again wetter than the OP -- likely nearly 1.5x that of the OP in the DC area... dunno if thats because a few members are skewing it or if the OP is too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS looks pretty solid. Still focused NW of 95 for best snow but probably best run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 wild looking precip on the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Here are BWI's obs for that day--27th was bone dry too. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/1982/2/28/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NAhttp://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/1982/2/28/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Here is LYH http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLYH/1982/2/27/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA I recall this event- I lived in Delaware at the time. Early thoughts in DElaware were that we'd get snow and it was suppressed. My parents went skiing that weekend and bought me a sled while I stayed at my grandparents. It didn't snow and I was bummed. My bad. I must have got it confused with another event in Feb. 82. When I saw the one you are talking about was on a Sunday that confirmed I was wrong. The one I was thinking of was during the middle of the week. Sorry I was so fast to correct you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS - 1.25" for DC....mean and OP very similar to each other at surface and upper levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM is juicy. But how much of that is rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 wild looking precip on the ggem 3.7.13 ggem.jpg Looks like a snow to rain to heavy wet snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM always runs warm. Not sure it is worth much to even look at the temps on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 wild looking precip on the ggem 3.7.13 ggem.jpg GGEM is juicy. But how much of that is rain? Looks like a snow to rain to heavy wet snow event who cares?...It is garbage and has no place in a weather discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Solid 12Z suite so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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