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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Awesome run but high bust potential...I've been here long enough to know about the dreaded Miller B dry slot as the low transfers and seeing a massive blizzard just to the northeast while nothing here.

Low actully gets going down in NE NC/SE VA... and then stalls just to our NE... so we would be good precipwise.

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I don't think so with the block and some confluence to our north.. but who knows this winter. Also, I would think half of the qpf for us is rain?

West of DC is a good place to be. But no arctic air for anyone

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00Z EC ensemble mean was perfectly oriented between the 00Z operational EC and 00Z GFS, which is exactly where we want that low to be location-wise (albeit of course the means are going to wash out the mslp a bit). The operational EC going up the western side of the DelMarVa by 144 was clearly an outlier (left) solution when compared to the mean, so it's still way too early to worry about torching up in the DC area. I'm liking what I see at this stage of the game. As is often the case, the EC mean leads the way in this portion of the medium range -- now it's a matter of getting more EC members, including the operational run, better clustered for the next Wed-Fri timeframe..

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