Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If the euro didn't do the jog se last night then it would have been a big precip hit. 12z gfs and 0z euro are pretty close overall. Considering the latest gfs runs, I would think the euro comes out with an e-ne track without a jog se. It's a shame this wasn't happening 3-4 weeks ago. Being on the edge wouldn't matter. But here were are facing another challenging and heartbreaking chance at snow. At least we have a lot of practice. I think the banding aspect as that h5 low crosses NC is WAY up in the air. They tend to end up further north and west.. March 09 was supposed to crush Greensboro and Got me--460 between Roanoke and LYH was jackpot. Feb 19th last year-- CHO got some sweet action that was under forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z GFS snow maps seem to like NW VA... DCA gets some good snow - as in breaks the 2" barrier (aka Raleigh, waiting for Earl Barker) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Feb 27-28 1982. 12 inches in LYH. Capped off a nice winter down here-- 35 inches or so total. Pretty sure that's not the strom he's talking about. I think that one got BWI pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If the euro didn't do the jog se last night then it would have been a big precip hit. 12z gfs and 0z euro are pretty close overall. Considering the latest gfs runs, I would think the euro comes out with an e-ne track without a jog se. It's a shame this wasn't happening 3-4 weeks ago. Being on the edge wouldn't matter. But here were are facing another challenging and heartbreaking chance at snow. At least we have a lot of practice. True on the Euro. Probably would have been less than 12z but not as dramatic without that weird SE hop. I want to get banded hard. Nothing else will do. A mo earlier would be great.. The edge is always a problem in modeling tho so I'd rather have some buffer there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Pretty sure that's not the strom he's talking about. I think that one got BWI pretty good. Here are BWI's obs for that day--27th was bone dry too. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/1982/2/28/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NAhttp://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/1982/2/28/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Here is LYH http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLYH/1982/2/27/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA I recall this event- I lived in Delaware at the time. Early thoughts in DElaware were that we'd get snow and it was suppressed. My parents went skiing that weekend and bought me a sled while I stayed at my grandparents. It didn't snow and I was bummed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z GEFS again wetter than the OP -- likely nearly 1.5x that of the OP in the DC area... dunno if thats because a few members are skewing it or if the OP is too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS looks pretty solid. Still focused NW of 95 for best snow but probably best run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 wild looking precip on the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Here are BWI's obs for that day--27th was bone dry too. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/1982/2/28/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NAhttp://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/1982/2/28/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Here is LYH http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLYH/1982/2/27/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA I recall this event- I lived in Delaware at the time. Early thoughts in DElaware were that we'd get snow and it was suppressed. My parents went skiing that weekend and bought me a sled while I stayed at my grandparents. It didn't snow and I was bummed. My bad. I must have got it confused with another event in Feb. 82. When I saw the one you are talking about was on a Sunday that confirmed I was wrong. The one I was thinking of was during the middle of the week. Sorry I was so fast to correct you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM is juicy. But how much of that is rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 wild looking precip on the ggem 3.7.13 ggem.jpg Looks like a snow to rain to heavy wet snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM always runs warm. Not sure it is worth much to even look at the temps on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Solid 12Z suite so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Pretty impressive that the GEFS is coming in 1+ inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM basically stalls the low over Richmond for 24 straight hours. It would be an incredible storm out here if the temps are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 who cares?...It is garbage and has no place in a weather discussion 4DVAr! it was as good as the Euro last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't care what the temps are...I want massive heavy precip. If rain...so be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 My bad. I must have got it confused with another event in Feb. 82. When I saw the one you are talking about was on a Sunday that confirmed I was wrong. The one I was thinking of was during the middle of the week. Sorry I was so fast to correct you. No biggie-- when I moved down here I studied up on climo. Even before I had the KU book I could name and quote amounts of snow in New Castle Delaware for about every event since 1978-- It's almost sick. Looked like a fun event down here. LYH also had a big snow event Feb 16th 1987 12 inches-- the third of the season BEFORE the Feb 22, 87 event-- that was mostly rain here, ending as an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM and NAVGEM have actually done fairly well since the upgrades they got a few weeks ago FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ha...I know people have their rationalizations, but we all know the GGEM is an awful model...just terrible....and we know the 18zGFS is unreliable and goofy for our backyard despite what DTK and others might say im willing to see how it performs over the next few months but i've never really cared what it said in the past. the best is people on CWG FB saying the UKMET is a great model. there's been a massive failure in showing models to the public and explaining how they work. it needs to be rectified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think if I were depending upon this holding position or even trending south to get snow I'd be nervous right now. Looking at GFS trends, srefs, NAM, gfs ens members, I think there's mounting reason to think this may still come further north, at least early. I dont remember a low in the OV like some solutions are showing until recent runs. Maybe it doesn't matter. Maybe it's only the low position along the coast that matters, but it seems low pressure back in the OV would mean warmer temps, at least for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS/EURO combo seems pretty nice for our area... as many have said we need good rates to get accums and it does appear that N and W of I-95 is the area to be for now... biggest EURO run of our lives coming up Will be interesting to see if the EC shifts north slightly in response to what the GFS did... plus I would expect the QPF to be cut down just a tad, I think EC is too QPF happy with this system as it is nearly double the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 im willing to see how it performs over the next few months but i've never really cared what it said in the past. the best is people on CWG FB saying the UKMET is a great model. there's been a massive failure in showing models to the public and explaining how they work. it needs to be rectified. Not sure I agree with this. Most of the general public doesn't even know what a snowfall "gradient" is. The will see one model that has snow and that's all they will see. It would be counterproductive IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not sure I agree with this. Most of the general public doesn't even know what a snowfall "gradient" is. The will see one model that has snow and that's all they will see. It would be counterproductive IMO. im talking the public who follows something like CWG on facebook etc. you see a ton of comments about the GFS sucking etc. these are not your random people who watch the weather on the news.. they are at least informed enough to know what they are looking at in general. the discussion has been poisoned by people with agendas framing it wrong... i think it would be a huge step back to only use one model. the euro has lots of big wins but also fails pretty often at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 im talking the public who follows something like CWG on facebook etc. you see a ton of comments about the GFS sucking etc. these are not your random people who watch the weather on the news.. they are at least informed enough to know what they are looking at in general. the discussion has been poisoned by people with agendas framing it wrong... i think it would be a huge step back to only use one model. the euro has lots of big wins but also fails pretty often at range. ahhh, ok. Was starting to wonder about you there for a minute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ha...I know people have their rationalizations, but we all know the GGEM is an awful model...just terrible....and we know the 18zGFS is unreliable and goofy for our backyard despite what DTK and others might say On that point, I've always felt that visually for some reason, the off runs do not seem to have as much info as the 0z and 12 z runs. Because it looks as if the main runs make adjustments. I know, it doesn't make much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 7 of the GFS ensembles members still have decent precip in the area at 120 (as in .1+ QPF), which leads me to believe the OP is still to far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On that point, I've always felt that visually for some reason, the off runs do not seem to have as much info as the 0z and 12 z runs. Because it looks as if the main runs make adjustments. I know, it doesn't make much sense. It makes sense because the 0z and 12z runs are the runs with the new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ahhh, ok. Was starting to wonder about you there for a minute! there are waaaaaay more people who talk about the models these days than even 2 or 3 years ago. most don't really understand the bias aspect and how to use them all together from what i've gathered. there has been a proliferation of "only use the euro" of late.. from mets.. which imo is bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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