AvantHiatus Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 h5 energy is coming off somewhere between HSE and Norfolk at 102, still triple contoured closed All hell would break lose if this closed low opened up at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Nice slp placement @ 102. CCB likely in our general area regardless of what the model shows. What a damn nailbiter. Game of inches @ h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 A non-mentionable pro forcaster has dc in the heavy snow crosshairs on his Saturday map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 still a mainly west of dc snow accum verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like the same idea on the 12z GFS with regards to the h5 level as the past few GFS runs on h5... once it gets to E NC it slows down and slowly moves E... luckily for us it has been moving slightly north some to get us into the heavier QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Nice slp placement @ 102. CCB likely in our general area regardless of what the model shows. What a damn nailbiter. Game of inches @ h5. It seems this run is trying to show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks good. Splitting hairs over the placement of the heaviest bands at 100 hours is silliness. We are in good shape on this run, although it will need to come down like gangbusters to be snow given the temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 make it easy on peoples eyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 still a mainly west of dc snow accum verbatim. Mountains do well. Only area of the coastal plain w/ accum is in southern VA under the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Decent qpf but temps are gonna be an issue. Mtns southwest VA are gonna get smoked. Give us gobs of qpf and let it be what helps temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Mountains do well. Only area of the coastal plain w/ accum is in southern VA under the low. Which the SV maps have as 8-12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 still a mainly west of dc snow accum verbatim. Yea, pretty much. It's nice to see the 850 low track in more traditional fashion instead of those weird s jogs. Almost due e off obx is better than some weird se movement. I took a real close look @ h5 leading in. It's close to letting the lp turn the corner a little more. That would be the ideal best case. It could be more wrapped and have a better chance @ drawing in what little cold air there is available and put us right in the heavy qpf max. I'm not weenieing out. It's a stretch but not off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yea, pretty much. It's nice to see the 850 low track in more traditional fashion instead of those weird s jogs. Almost due e off obx is better than some weird se movement. I took a real close look @ h5 leading in. It's close to letting the lp turn the corner a little more. That would be the ideal best case. It could be more wrapped and have a better chance @ drawing in what little cold air there is available and put us right in the heavy qpf max. I'm not weenieing out. It's a stretch but not off the table. Wouldn't history dictate a more ne movement at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is a good run. I said earlier I'm fine with a central va bullseye at 100 hours. This will bleed north a bit the final 72 hours. We needed the south trend to stop and this run edged north a bit. If we just need a 100 mile drift the last 48 hours were in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Wouldn't history dictate a more ne movement at some point? No, not really. The talk of 09-10 is flawed. It's not an apples to apples. 09-10 was phased with a dominant stj. SW's approached much differently. It's really a bad comparison imo. Also, 09-10 didn't have big time moving parts to the N like we do now. Inches mean miles. What we just saw on the gfs was the se edge of the block to the NE in NY state move out of the way just a little further and soon. If you looked at just that little movement it would seem like nothing. But it meant a lot. There is no reason to believe it can't easily go the other way at this point. We have a long ways to go. Edit: and I totally agree with what psu just said. It was clearly a move in the right direction and adds some relief to the suppressed s trend continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Might do ok IMBY but looks like chilly rain for a good part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm glad to see the GFS lost that ridiculous piece/wave over the Great Lakes that was trying to phase into this thing. The GFS yesterday was a clear outlier; and, a setup like that would have caused headaches and probably an even more out to sea track than it was portraying. Initially, a piece from California phases in and increases the moisture associated with the main system. But, if the Northwest Atlantic Blocking doesn't get out of the way, there is no way this can trend north. Like I said yesterday, these systems usually come on the heels of the blocking...not when the blocking has reached its furthest west point and then drifts south. I don't see how this can radically shift north over the next few days unless the models are waaaay off with the block. Edit: and by shift north, I mean to like the NYC-BOS corridor. A shift north into the DC-PHL corridor is still very much doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 still a mainly west of dc snow accum verbatim. True but its too early to worry about that. a slight northward nudge to the upper low and we'd probably do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm glad to see the GFS lost that ridiculous piece/wave over the Great Lakes that was trying to phase into this thing. The GFS yesterday was a clear outlier; and, a setup like that would have caused headaches and probably an even more out to sea track than it was portraying. Initially, a piece from California phases in and increases the moisture associated with the main system. But, if the Northwest Atlantic Blocking doesn't get out of the way, there is no way this can trend north. Like I said yesterday, these systems usually come on the heels of the blocking...not when the blocking has reached its furthest west point and then drifts south. I don't see how this can radically shift north over the next few days unless the models are waaaay off with the block. Edit: and by shift north, I mean to like the NYC-BOS corridor. A shift north into the DC-PHL corridor is still very much doable. I don't think anyone here cares if this misses Boston, but we appreciate the analysis nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 the annotations are for the cwg people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So this looks like a 18-20 hour event, regardless of precip type. I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I guess I gotta wait for soundings to see how much is rain and snow. Shouldn't worry much about that now I guess but hopefully heavy precip can keep it mainly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't think anyone here cares if this misses Boston, but we appreciate the analysis nonetheless. True but I am trying to ease those concerns. I know I read some posts yesterday about how these "usually shift north" as we get closer. I'm suggesting that this may not be the case this time around as the anticyclone drops west and then south into Quebec. This puts your area in a great spot to be for a slight adjustment north but nothing too crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12Z is much faster with storms arrival than 0Z. Like 12 hours faster. It is also a little north of 0Z. A good run for us for sure. Temps are def an issue on this run. Even out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 make it easy on peoples eyes: gfsqpf1.JPG Eye candy, but not all snow for my area. Starts as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 True but I am trying to ease those concerns. I know I read some posts yesterday about how these "usually shift north" as we get closer. I'm suggesting that this may not be the case this time around as the anticyclone drops west and then south into Quebec. This puts your area in a great spot to be for a slight adjustment north but nothing too crazy... Yeah, agreed. Having the bullseye 75 miles south is not a bad spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That secondary max of precip north of the main band could get us some decent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is a good run. I said earlier I'm fine with a central va bullseye at 100 hours. This will bleed north a bit the final 72 hours. We needed the south trend to stop and this run edged north a bit. If we just need a 100 mile drift the last 48 hours were in good shape. I am very encouraged by this run. If we were 24 out I would be on the edge of my seat, but with such a long long way to go were fine. The key for everyone especially us like you said is the south trend stopped on the GFS. Seemed like this run of the GFS showed an enormous amount of precip on the ENE side of the low which I thought was a little weird. Now we will see what the other data says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 gfs_compare.jpg the annotations are for the cwg people. Good graphic. Even with an additional nwrd shift, this still is an even that is likely to better for the north and west crowd than DCA and mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 While the GFS saw big adjustments over the last few runs with the Great Lakes and a gradual shift north with the actual storm, it hasn't budged with the NW Atlantic Low from what I can tell. If anything, today's 6z and 12z runs are exerting more influence from it than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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