usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Given the sharp cutoff potential I do wonder if the means are starting to play tricks on the northern edge. Ian, if you look at the forecast 500h low positions on the ensembles you can get a feel for some members being really big qpf makers for us and that is much of the reason our QPF is high on the mean. There still is enough uncertainty about where that feature will end up, http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_6z/f108.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Given the sharp cutoff potential I do wonder if the means are starting to play tricks on the northern edge. Ian, if you look at the forecast 500h low positions on the ensembles you can get a feel for some members being really big qpf makers for us and that is much of the reason our QPF is high on the mean. There still is enough uncertainty about where that feature will end up, http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_6z/f108.html if this doesn't work out, I'm going to the cwg page and starting a mob against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is not going to take a huge jump north at the end because of the block, like hm said, but I do still think the final 72 hours these type things bleed north a bit. Last night all the guidance trended south. That has to stop now. I feel fine if the bullseye now is Richmond but we are in trouble if today guidance starts to show a Carolina hit again. Didn't 1 of the big storms in 2010 jump to the north pretty significantly in the last few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 if this doesn't work out, I'm going to the cwg page and starting a mob against you. Well you'd just be joining it. There are quite a few who think we are hypsters for even mentioning potential. Heck even with a good track, this could be rain for you and me bu without a good track we have no hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Didn't 1 of the big storms in 2010 jump to the north pretty significantly in the last few days? I might be wrong but I dont think so....those were pretty well modeled well in advance.....I think there was a hiccup run though where it showed us not getting much just to go back to a monster the next run though. But yeah, I think generally, as I think either Zwyts or Mitchnick said, these typically 'bleed' north...not a big shift, but it wouldnt take a huge shift to get us into 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NAM says, fwiw, that bowling ball heads for VA, which ain't a bad thing for DCA/BWI imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NAM says, fwiw, that bowling ball heads for VA, which ain't a bad thing for DCA/BWI imho Yeah, that's my thought. Maybe Wes can chime in. Is that the h5 look we want? But usually when nam is the lone wolf, well. You know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I might be wrong but I dont think so....those were pretty well modeled well in advance.....I think there was a hiccup run though where it showed us not getting much just to go back to a monster the next run though. But yeah, I think generally, as I think either Zwyts or Mitchnick said, these typically 'bleed' north...not a big shift, but it wouldnt take a huge shift to get us into 1" QPF. 36 hours out on the December HECS it showed me getting very little precip. It had held that for a full day before but then suddenly switched to purples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NAM says, fwiw, that bowling ball heads for VA, which ain't a bad thing for DCA/BWI imho I Don't think so. The trough that extends westward across New england is a problem and would force the low southeast towards NC. That trough to our northeast is locked in by the block to its north. That combo is our problem and it needs to weaken to allow the approaching upper low to track farther n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NAM says, fwiw, that bowling ball heads for VA, which ain't a bad thing for DCA/BWI imho I Don't think so. The trough that extends westward across New england is a problem and would force the low southeast towards NC. That trough to our northeast is locked in by the block to its north. That combo is our problem and it needs to weaken to allow the approaching upper low to track farther n. Ugh. Still plenty of time to change tho. No worries, 0z nam will have reds over us with sfc temp of 18 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I might be wrong but I dont think so....those were pretty well modeled well in advance.....I think there was a hiccup run though where it showed us not getting much just to go back to a monster the next run though. But yeah, I think generally, as I think either Zwyts or Mitchnick said, these typically 'bleed' north...not a big shift, but it wouldnt take a huge shift to get us into 1" QPF. January 30, 2010 had a pretty massive jump north in the last day or so. Went from next to nothing, to a nice 4-8" storm for DC and Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ugh. Still plenty of time to change tho. No worries, 0z nam will have reds over us with sfc temp of 18 degrees. Plus I could be wrong, predicting models is a perilous task Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I Don't think so. The trough that extends westward across New england is a problem and would force the low southeast towards NC. That trough to our northeast is locked in by the block to its north. That combo is our problem and it needs to weaken to allow the approaching upper low to track farther n. well, if you play the loop, the trough is retreating/weakening which is what I believed would help our bowling ball hook more to the left as it hits SW VA I know, extrapolating the NAM, but as I said, it does show the trough retreating/weakening w/o the need to extrapolate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This system is about the worst type the nam can try and guess at in its useless range. I'm gonna stay quiet on this because it's clear the field of solutions is still wide open and not close to being nailed down. I will say that now that phasing appears very unlikely we have plenty of temp and track challenges for a big hit. Also, it can stay or go even further south just as easily as come north. Ive seen enough runs stop it in it's tracks to know the block could be a real beast when it matters. Since so much has to go right and the latest trends have added little and taken away some.....my expectations are set accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Plus I could be wrong, predicting models is a perilous task again, fwiw, the NAM shows decent precip breaking out over us at 84 hrs too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 again, fwiw, the NAM shows decent precip breaking out over us at 84 hrs too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif It also has the upper low farther n than the 06Z 90 hr GFS so in that sense you are correct. I'm not sure it means much either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 January 30, 2010 had a pretty massive jump north in the last day or so. Went from next to nothing, to a nice 4-8" storm for DC and Baltimore. I believe he was referring to the 2 monster Feb storms...If I recall correctly, those were modeled pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I believe he was referring to the 2 monster Feb storms...If I recall correctly, those were modeled pretty well. I should have been more specific. I meant to say the 2009-2010 winter. I can't recall which one trended more north than we may have expected. Could have been the one in DEc but my memory tells me that it was not only a mild surprise because of the trend but also because we had already been hit hard that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 First time I have seen the h5 energy open... 12z GFS at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS is doing its thing at 57 hours. Big bowling ball setting up in the midwest. Northern stream is more potent. Holy smokestacks, it's ramping up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like its going to be close at 84... ULL block shows up but I think its far enough east to have it come north just a lil more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 At hour 84 compared to last run of the gfs you could see a slight shift ne with the closed low over ny state. And it looks like it's enough to allow a further n solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Decent qpf but temps are gonna be an issue. Mtns southwest VA are gonna get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like a better defined northern stream and some interaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Triple closed contour h5 low in NE TN/W NC at 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 at 102 there are 2 qpf maxes. 1.) in southern VA and 2.) in NOVA/DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS definitely better up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 h5 energy is coming off somewhere between HSE and Norfolk at 102, still triple contoured closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like a good run.....I goota go do a quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 .75-1" in NOVA/DC.. Line basically runs the Potomac. Sharp cutoff to the north. 1-2.5" from EZF to VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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