March Med/Long Range Disco

[ACFD FIREMAN]

I think its just as likely that the shift could be 50-75 miles south though. The models are struggling with the strength of the block.

Agree. But when the euro of all models has qpf totals of nearly 3" within 75 miles its a big big deal. We are all so jaded we are looking at the negatives. And maybe rightfully so.....

[Deck Pic]

Agree. But when the euro of all models has qpf totals of nearly 3" within 75 miles its a big big deal. We are all so jaded we are looking at the negatives. And maybe rightfully so.....

 

Im encouraged

[yoda]

Im encouraged

 

At least this time for right now its the EURO with the big QPF values nearby instead of the GFS

[Ian]

I know you like to see the negative in everything but really......50-75 mile shift over 4 days is plausible if not likely.

 

i'm honestly really tired of this stuff. you guys don't do it to wes when he brings the other side to the conversation. i'm not wes.. not even close.. but this **** is old.

 

my interpretation of the euro was exactly as the euro looked. i noted the changes over recent runs. i didn't say it won't shift north, i didn't say we're done for. i didn't really say anything other than what i saw on the model... and it's easily verifiable as true. it is interesting how different people can read a model differently though for sure.

 

i'll work on getting my snow goggles fixed before returning. don't tell anyone i bumped cwg SPI by two tonight.. gotta keep that deb thing going.

[blazeKing]

It's pretty easy seeing the negative around here when we've had 2" the last 2 years.  Especially since we have about 100" of day 5 euro snow.  1-2" qpf could verify over DC but probably not.  I think we all knew after the 18z gfs that the euro was going to cave on those qpf numbers for dc, it's only happened like 20 times this year and last.  The model showing the least snow here has won out almost every time.  Doesn't mean it will happen this time.  We've seen the south solution, we've seen the north solution, now we're coming to the middle with slight adjustments probably to go.  I just hope those adjustments are north.

[yoda]

03z SREFs mean way out there FWIW  has the h5 energy somewhere around the S MN/IA/S WI/N IL area at 87 hrs

[nw baltimore wx]

I stand by what I said. Best predicted/obvious storm in DC in last 10 years was the Feb. 5 2010 blizzard. And NO ONE would have bet  more than a few dollars on the Sunday before that Friday (Super Bowl Sunday) that the DGEX was correct.. And no other storm in last 20 years comes close to being as accurately predicted 5 days away. Maybe  Blzzard of 1996, but that is budding against that 20 year window.

 

I'll take this bet.  I want snow as much as the next person but this isn't 2010, which also means it's not the same pattern.  I totally agree that in 2010 when the models said my area would get a second "blizzard" five days from the first, I scoffed. I never, ever thought we'd get a second storm, but I was wrong, so maybe you're right.  Frankly, I hope so.

 

But, in the event that you're wrong, what do you want to bet?  And what odds?  And where do we measure the said snowfall?  I think DCA is out.  They suck.  BWI's measurement of snow?  IAD?  Tell me what you think is a fair over/under based on the model runs, or your own forecast and we can banter.

[WxMan1]

I'm guessing the 00Z EC will be an outlier compared to its ensemble mean in terms of the low going from Elizabeth City NC to southeast of Cape Hatteras.  Very rarely do we see a SE shift like that over that longitude benchmark.  Oh, and the EC snow output is weird to...basically all areas east of I-95 north of EZF gets the shaft. Meanwhile RIC 4-5".  

 

I think when all is said and done we're going to conclude that both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF were not lining up well with their ensemble means.  GFS was a notable S-SE outlier with the surface low track compared to the GEFS mean.  I think the 00Z EC ensemble mean will in turn not support that funky operational EC track from 120-132 hours.

[yoda]

120 - 997 L 50 to 100 miles ENE of HSE (ECMWF enemble mean)

[stormtracker]

GFS about to go boom?. Came north,

[stormtracker]

GFS trolled us. Hard. OMG

[Inudaw]

... That cut off for Northern Va... O-o;

[stormtracker]

... That cut off for Northern Va... O-o;

Just brutal

[yoda]

It came north at least... so we can take that away but wow

[stormtracker]

It's starting to look like the phase plan is out. We need the bowling ball to exit via VA coast

[wxmeddler]

I'm convinced that its that tiny shortwave in the southern stream over NM in 60 hrs that is the key to this whole thing. It more or less clears the way for the bowling ball to make it's dive.

[Inudaw]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=06ℑ=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_147_precip_ptot.gif

... Are the roads closed just south of DC?   O-o

[stormtracker]

Brutal

[yoda]

... That cut off for Northern Va... O-o;

Looks like .2 to .25 in DCA... then about every 20 miles south you gain 0.25 QPF. EZF would be near 1". N of DCA is flurries

[SLPressure]

So, is the block  off of the NE coast keeping this from moving north instead of the current out to sea?

[VAsnowlvr82]

It may not come north but I mean four days out you gotta like the location right?

[North Balti Zen]

Speaking as someone in the close but no cigar zone, i am not comfortable saying "north trend". I would sure like to see some actual hits in the 12z suite.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

[Ji]

Ensemble looks good

[BristowWx]

Ensemble looks good

Morning Ji...I was waiting for that bit of news...6z GFS not great but comparing to 0z op better for certain

[mitchnick]

plenty of time

history shows being the bulls eye at this time range is very rarely good

for those of us in the DCA/BWI area, the bulls eye being south of us is not a bad thing at all; it doesn't guarantee us a hit but most of our decent storms were progged to our south at this range

this might be one of those rare exceptions, but I'm willing to take that bet

[needbiggerboat]

6z gfs looks like all rain

[CAPE]

6z gfs looks like all rain

Surface is torchy...but it is the 6z GFS- and we are 5 days out. Why worry about minor details like temps in the 40s.

[WxUSAF]

Mean total precip trends in the GEFS the last 4 runs for BWI:

 

0z: 0.2"

6z: 0.46"

12z: 0.71"

18z: 0.94"

 

That's a pretty damn good trend for us.  Verbatim, many of the members are rain, but I don't care much about the GEFS members boundary layer temps.  Give me a big low off OC with 850s below zero and I'll take my chances. 

Update for last 2 runs:

 

0z: 1.12"

6z: 1.12"

 

Maybe the Op will be right, but it's certainly the outlier here although at 6z it looks like it has 1 or 2 members in the very-dry for BWI company. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

What a night huh?

It sure seems you can't take too many solutions off the table at this point. I'm intruiged by the Euro ens. I only have crude maps but it looks like it would be better for us. The gfs members at 6z look more amped, but it still would seem there's going to be a nasty cutoff very close by, especially for me. The slowing is another issue. What we end up with could still be totally different. The blocking in the atl isn't going to hold forever. I think the ull ends up coming through further north. What that does to us at the surface I'll leave for better posters to decide.

I think it's tomorrow night at the earliest before we really have a decent idea.

[CAPE]

So, is the block  off of the NE coast keeping this from moving north instead of the current out to sea?

There is a 500 low off the NE coast. The block is north of that. There is a zone of confluence on the southern and western side of that low. The strength and position of that at day 4-5 is going to impact how much latitude this storm can gain. This is one element the models are struggling with currently, and thus the vastly different op solutions from run to run the last few days. Right now they SEEM to have converged on a more southern track, but I doubt that will hold....4+ days out.