March Med/Long Range Disco

[stormtracker]

It's starting to look like the phase plan is out. We need the bowling ball to exit via VA coast

[wxmeddler]

I'm convinced that its that tiny shortwave in the southern stream over NM in 60 hrs that is the key to this whole thing. It more or less clears the way for the bowling ball to make it's dive.

[Inudaw]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=06ℑ=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_147_precip_ptot.gif

... Are the roads closed just south of DC?   O-o

[stormtracker]

Brutal

[yoda]

... That cut off for Northern Va... O-o;

Looks like .2 to .25 in DCA... then about every 20 miles south you gain 0.25 QPF. EZF would be near 1". N of DCA is flurries

[SLPressure]

So, is the block  off of the NE coast keeping this from moving north instead of the current out to sea?

[VAsnowlvr82]

It may not come north but I mean four days out you gotta like the location right?

[North Balti Zen]

Speaking as someone in the close but no cigar zone, i am not comfortable saying "north trend". I would sure like to see some actual hits in the 12z suite.

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[Ji]

Ensemble looks good

[BristowWx]

Ensemble looks good

Morning Ji...I was waiting for that bit of news...6z GFS not great but comparing to 0z op better for certain

[mitchnick]

plenty of time

history shows being the bulls eye at this time range is very rarely good

for those of us in the DCA/BWI area, the bulls eye being south of us is not a bad thing at all; it doesn't guarantee us a hit but most of our decent storms were progged to our south at this range

this might be one of those rare exceptions, but I'm willing to take that bet

[needbiggerboat]

6z gfs looks like all rain

[CAPE]

6z gfs looks like all rain

Surface is torchy...but it is the 6z GFS- and we are 5 days out. Why worry about minor details like temps in the 40s.

[WxUSAF]

Mean total precip trends in the GEFS the last 4 runs for BWI:

 

0z: 0.2"

6z: 0.46"

12z: 0.71"

18z: 0.94"

 

That's a pretty damn good trend for us.  Verbatim, many of the members are rain, but I don't care much about the GEFS members boundary layer temps.  Give me a big low off OC with 850s below zero and I'll take my chances. 

Update for last 2 runs:

 

0z: 1.12"

6z: 1.12"

 

Maybe the Op will be right, but it's certainly the outlier here although at 6z it looks like it has 1 or 2 members in the very-dry for BWI company. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

What a night huh?

It sure seems you can't take too many solutions off the table at this point. I'm intruiged by the Euro ens. I only have crude maps but it looks like it would be better for us. The gfs members at 6z look more amped, but it still would seem there's going to be a nasty cutoff very close by, especially for me. The slowing is another issue. What we end up with could still be totally different. The blocking in the atl isn't going to hold forever. I think the ull ends up coming through further north. What that does to us at the surface I'll leave for better posters to decide.

I think it's tomorrow night at the earliest before we really have a decent idea.

[CAPE]

So, is the block  off of the NE coast keeping this from moving north instead of the current out to sea?

There is a 500 low off the NE coast. The block is north of that. There is a zone of confluence on the southern and western side of that low. The strength and position of that at day 4-5 is going to impact how much latitude this storm can gain. This is one element the models are struggling with currently, and thus the vastly different op solutions from run to run the last few days. Right now they SEEM to have converged on a more southern track, but I doubt that will hold....4+ days out.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I also wonder if a much more north, much warmer system is possible. Someone else can comment on the OV low starting to show on the NAM and srefs. Is it possible for the blocking off shore to slide so far south combined with a slower vort that the low manages to find the slot between them?

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

The storm is still in

a data poor zone so hopefully we have some more clarity by 0z tonight.

Nice disco by the NWS from State College:

Due to these diffs...there is still too much uncertainty this far

out to attempt to pin down specific impacts. The storm is still

over the northern Pacific Ocean...where models do not initialize the

atmosphere as well...thus likely contributing to a fair amount of

run to run model inconsistencies. There are a growing number of

operations models and gefs members that phase the low as it

approaches the coast...which would allow the storm to take a more

northward turn near the middle-Atlantic coast and slow down

[CAPE]

I also wonder if a much more north, much warmer system is possible. Someone else can comment on the OV low starting to show on the NAM and srefs. Is it possible for the blocking off shore to slide so far south combined with a slower vort that the low manages to find the slot between them?

 

I have not seen the NAM(and wouldn't even look at this time frame), but look at the 500 setup from this morning's GFS. I cant see how a low can do anything but track under that block and south of that 500 low.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=06ℑ=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_066_500_vort_ht.gif

[EastCoast NPZ]

The storm is still ina data poor zone so hopefully we have some more clarity by 0z tonight.  Nice disco by the NWS from State College:Due to these diffs...there is still too much uncertainty this far out to attempt to pin down specific impacts. The storm is still over the northern Pacific Ocean...where models do not initialize the atmosphere as well...thus likely contributing to a fair amount of run to run model inconsistencies. There are a growing number of operations models and gefs members that phase the low as it approaches the coast...which would allow the storm to take a more northward turn near the middle-Atlantic coast and slow down

what operational models are phasing the low near the coast?  sure ain't the GFS, and no longer looks like the euro does either.

[CoastalWx]

Do any Mets post on this board anymore?

Zwyts and Ian are mets.

[North Balti Zen]

what operational models are phasing the low near the coast?  sure ain't the GFS, and no longer looks like the euro does either.

 

That is an old discussion pasted from back after the model suite that was showing a phase, not after the latest runs where the northern stream disappeared altogether making the notions of phase ludicrous.

[CoastalWx]

Nevermind the model temps, if that CCB can get

Into the DC area and especially just west with a little elevation....it's a crusher. The most important thing to worry about is storm location and temps secondary. You'll need it to rip pretty good in order to get accumulations.

[usedtobe]

Nothing has changed from yesterday.  still lots of solutions on the table. One of the reasons the GFS is so warm at the surface is the lack of any heavy precipitation.  Increase the upward motion and the temps would be cooler.  This is one of those time when you want the upper low to come north a tad to put us in the deformation zone. 

[CoastalWx]

Nothing has changed from yesterday. still lots of solutions on the table. One of the reasons the GFS is so warm at the surface is the lack of any heavy precipitation. Increase the upward motion and the temps would be cooler. This is one of those time when you want the upper low to come north a tad to put us in the deformation zone.

Yep exactly. That's why I would focus on where this tracks and not model temps because track location will effect precip rates and therefore temps. Good luck down there.

[psuhoffman]

No word on ec ensemble precip?

[mitchnick]

I like this

I know it's at the end of the new SREFs, but still

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=09ℑ=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif

 

EDIT: and it's headed right for VA if you loop the hours

[DCAlexandria]

Do any Mets post on this board anymore?

Zwyts and Ian are mets.

Huh? Ian isn't. Nor Zwyts I think. I think you are mixing up the pro forecaster and met tags. Julianne Barbereri that use to do the NFL weather is technically a pro forecaster.

Wes is a met.

[Kmlwx]

Huh? Ian isn't. Nor Zwyts I think. I think you are mixing up the pro forecaster and met tags. Julianne Barbereri that use to do the NFL weather is technically a pro forecaster. Wes is a met.

 

Right over the head eh?

That cutoff being shown on the models is pretty serious lol. 

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Ensemble looks good

Does the Ensemble mean really look THAT much better? The surface low track is nearly identical to the OP, its just clearly there are members that are more wet. Personally, from Ensembles..I look at just the track of the low, not really QPF amounts