March Med/Long Range Disco

[Ian]

I haven't looked overly carefully at the ensembles that much for this.  Offhand, would you say they've been fairly consistent in today's runs, despite the OP going from encouraging (06Z) to really great (12Z) to a whiff (18Z and now 00Z)?

 

they've gotten better every run precipwise. they show a more normal snow distribution though--heavily focused in the hills north and west of 95.

[Deck Pic]

0z consensus is south. Uk Cmc and gfs all went south

 

nope

 

and where it had 0.75" at 18z it now has 4"......

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Probably tho we're getting close to the range where the ops start doing better. I don't think the GFS is right per se. I do worry that without a big bomb phase we're going to run into precip issues around here.

Yeah, that's been in the back of my mind too.  The ultimate kick in the groin scenario to close out this winter would be:  big snows in the NC/SC mountains, storm swings out too far offshore for us and we get p*ssed on with light rain and 40 degrees, then the storm re-curves and gives Boston 2 feet of snow as it bombs out.  Ugh, that almost seems realistic as I type it!

[Deck Pic]

I haven't looked overly carefully at the ensembles that much for this.  Offhand, would you say they've been fairly consistent in today's runs, despite the OP going from encouraging (06Z) to really great (12Z) to a whiff (18Z and now 00Z)?

 

the VA/NC border got 0.75" at 18z....it now gets 4".....the 2 runs arent even in the same hemisphere

[PhineasC]

In zwyts I trust.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

Would be cool if it is better now. I'm pretty simple. I usually just do the euro/GFS and ens blend at range. The rest often confuses things IMO. GGEM seemed to lead way last night. Wonder if the euro will deamp further.

Im simple too and was intrigued by last nights ggem leading the subsequent gfs/euro. I think we see some snow out of this but wonder if todays 12z euro was the most amped/phased solution we see from here on out.

[Ian]

nope

 

and where it had 0.75" at 18z it now has 4"......

 

almost all of it rain on the front end. the gfs is a weird solution but im not sure it's really better than 18z. there's a lot of precip and it moves slow as the low gets stacked mainly.

[Deck Pic]

In zwyts I trust.

 

there is nothing to trust...the GFS was way improved at 0z from 18z....and the GEFS were improved and the GFS is still a southerly outlier....the GFS imo looked as bad as it could at the surface given the upper levels and it dumped 4" of precip across the NC/VA border...I could give a rats ass what the GGEM shows....it is an awful model...it is of no use...

[Ian]

Im simple too and was intrigued by last nights ggem leading the subsequent gfs/euro. I think we see some snow out of this but wonder if todays 12z euro was the most amped/phased solution we see from here on out.

 

euro de-amped a good bit at 12z compared to 0z. if it does so again there may be some issues. if it holds/gets better i'd be a little more confident up this way at least that we're not going to whiff. i'd sorta like southern va/sw va at this pt -- have seen a number of runs hit those areas with among the shifts and it lies sort of in the middle for now. elevation is probably going to be pretty critical.. im just not buying that this drops a foot on the coastal plain, at least widespread.

[nw baltimore wx]

In zwyts I trust.

 

95% of people that post need to take a step back and realize all that is not right for a snowstorm.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

the VA/NC border got 0.75" at 18z....it now gets 4".....the 2 runs arent even in the same hemisphere

It is definitely wetter in that region, but still a veritable whiff for folks up this way in DC/MD/NOVA and the low still scoots off the NC coast. 

[Deck Pic]

almost all of it rain on the front end. the gfs is a weird solution but im not sure it's really better than 18z. there's a lot of precip and it moves slow as the low gets stacked mainly.

 

yeah....but it was way wetter even given a weak sfc low that didnt amplify.....to me it was better than 18z in every way, but I guess it doesnt really matter since there will be a new run in 6 hours

 

to me the takeaway is that it is a southerly outlier at the surface, but matches the mean at the upper levels, which suggests to me that is should have amplified more...which makes sense because it looked goofy to me at the surface

[real]

95% of people that post need to take a step back and realize all that is not right for a snowstorm.

 

Please tell me when "all has been right" for a snowstorm 5 days before.. Even for a storm like Feb 5 2010, no one would say on the Sunday before that Friday, "all is right" for a snowstorm. Stronger signals, perhaps. But don't sit here and act like you know better than anyone else whether it will, or won't, snow in DC 4 or 5 days from now.

[Ian]

yeah....but it was way wetter even given a weak sfc low that didnt amplify.....to me it was better than 18z in every way, but I guess it doesnt really matter since there will be a new run in 6 hours

 

to me the takeaway is that it is a southerly outlier at the surface, but matches the mean at the upper levels, which suggests to me that is should have amplified more...which makes sense because it looked goofy to me at the surface

possible, usually you don't see a fully stacked sys by that pt but the low sorta does what you'd want to see just offshore over nc. i agree it's the southern outlier for now for sure.

[Deck Pic]

95% of people that post need to take a step back and realize all that is not right for a snowstorm.

 

I think most of us are beyond trying to define and shape expectations for other people....if after the last 700 days if people are still unaware of the all the adverse factors we face even in an ideal solution...climo, air mass, elevation, rates...then I dont know how they walk around without their head falling off

[Huffwx]

there is nothing to trust...the GFS was way improved at 0z from 18z....and the GEFS were improved and the GFS is still a southerly outlier....the GFS imo looked as bad as it could at the surface given the upper levels and it dumped 4" of precip across the NC/VA border...I could give a rats ass what the GGEM shows....it is an awful model...it is of no use...

 

 

If the GFS panned out, or something close-- I think that precip field would be 100 miles more north. 

[ACFD FIREMAN]

I think most of us are beyond trying to define and shape expectations for other people....if after the last 700 days if people are still unaware of the all the adverse factors we face even in an ideal solution...climo, air mass, elevation, rates...then I dont know how they walk around without their head falling off

Haha. Truth. I hope that most of the regulars here can just enjoy the chase of the models. Its just fun for me and hopefully it snows a little bit

[nw baltimore wx]

Please tell me when "all has been right" for a snowstorm 5 days before.. Even for a storm like Feb 5 2010, no one would say on the Sunday before that Friday, "all is right" for a snowstorm. Stronger signals, perhaps. But don't sit here and act like you know better than anyone else whether it will, or won't, snow in DC 4 or 5 days from now.

 

Are you kidding me?!?  In a winter like 09 - 10 when the whole western world had the winter pegged, including the Farmer's Almanac?!?  In 09 - 10, the models looked like Beethoveen with 5 good ears.  Nothing like this year, or any year before.

 

It's March!!!  Best bet???  It ain't going to snow!!  I'll take that bet every time and be a winner 97% of the time.

 

Is this the time?  Man, I hope so. But if you want to give me odds, regardless of what the Euro or GFS says, I'll listen.

[real]

Are you kidding me?!?  In a winter like 09 - 10 when the whole western world had the winter pegged, including the Farmer's Almanac?!?  In 09 - 10, the models looked like Beethoveen with 5 good ears.  Nothing like this year, or any year before.

 

It's March!!!  Best bet???  It ain't going to snow!!  I'll take that bet every time and be a winner 97% of the time.

 

Is this the time?  Man, I hope so. But if you want to give me odds, regardless of what the Euro or GFS says, I'll listen.

 

You can say all you want. You are a fool if you think, even in the best year/pattern in last 100 years, whether you can predict 5 days out whether a snowstorm will, or will not, occur 5 days from now in Wasington DC.

[nw baltimore wx]

You can say all you want. You are a fool if you think, even in the best year/pattern in last 100 years, whether you can predict 5 days out whether a snowstorm will, or will not, occur 5 days from now in Wasington DC.

 

Ok.  That's why I have 56" of modeled snow and 6" of real snow. 

 

Change your name.  It ain't real.

[Amped]

Remember what models looked like 4.5 days from February 9th? Clearly I wouldn't write it off unless you already wrote off winter in mid January like me.

[Ian]

Ok.  That's why I have 56" of modeled snow and 6" of real snow. 

 

Change your name.  It ain't real.

 

late friday night you is particularly funny

[real]

I stand by what I said. Best predicted/obvious storm in DC in last 10 years was the Feb. 5 2010 blizzard. And NO ONE would have bet  more than a few dollars on the Sunday before that Friday (Super Bowl Sunday) that the DGEX was correct.. And no other storm in last 20 years comes close to being as accurately predicted 5 days away. Maybe  Blzzard of 1996, but that is budding against that 20 year window.

[clskinsfan]

You can say all you want. You are a fool if you think, even in the best year/pattern in last 100 years, whether you can predict 5 days out whether a snowstorm will, or will not, occur 5 days from now in Wasington DC.

 

I understand your point. But there have been plenty of major storms that were obvious 5 days out. 12Z guidance was gorgeous and surprisingly consistent on almost all of the models. 0Z has been not so good at this point for DC and N/W.

[Ian]

I stand by what I said. Best predicted/obvious storm in DC in last 10 years was the Feb. 5 2010 blizzard. And NO ONE would have bet  more than a few dollars on the Sunday before that Friday (Super Bowl Sunday) that the DGEX was correct.. And no other storm in last 20 years comes close to being as accurately predicted 5 days away. Maybe  Blzzard of 1996, but that is budding against that 20 year window.

 

Eh.. that storm was predicted well in advance. I think by now it was more or less a lock ... people were just skeptical of the totals.

[clskinsfan]

I stand by what I said. Best predicted/obvious storm in DC in last 10 years was the Feb. 5 2010 blizzard. And NO ONE would have bet  more than a few dollars on the Sunday before that Friday (Super Bowl Sunday) that the DGEX was correct.. And no other storm in last 20 years comes close to being as accurately predicted 5 days away. Maybe  Blzzard of 1996, but that is budding against that 20 year window.

 

The Superstorm was unanimous 7 days out. But that goes back even further.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

You can say all you want. You are a fool if you think, even in the best year/pattern in last 100 years, whether you can predict 5 days out whether a snowstorm will, or will not, occur 5 days from now in Wasington DC.

Certain patterns and set-ups, yes, you can in fact been pretty confident a snowstorm would occur in DC.  Now, nobody would say "for certain" 5 days out, perhaps.  But offhand I'd say several days prior to the March 1993 superstorm, PD-II, and yes, Feb. 5-6, 2010 there was a pretty clear indication of what was coming and very high confidence in that likelihood.  Heck, Sterling issued watches 48 hours in advance of Feb. 5 (I don't think I've ever seen that before, but I wasn't here in 1993 or 1996).  Are those situations rare (at least here)?  Sure.  But they do happen.

[cast4]

Are you kidding me?!? In a winter like 09 - 10 when the whole western world had the winter pegged, including the Farmer's Almanac?!? In 09 - 10, the models looked like Beethoveen with 5 good ears. Nothing like this year, or any year before.

It's March!!! Best bet??? It ain't going to snow!! I'll take that bet every time and be a winner 97% of the time.

Is this the time? Man, I hope so. But if you want to give me odds, regardless of what the Euro or GFS says, I'll listen.

you do realize models don't control the weather, right?

[real]

Eh.. that storm was predicted well in advance. I think by now it was more or less a lock ... people were just skeptical of the totals.

One  correction. I was confused about dates. Five days before was not Super Bowl Sunday. Five days before Feb. 5 2010 was  Sunday, Jan 30, 2010. The day of the snowstorm that gave Richmond like a foot, which also  snuck north at last minute to give DC 6 inches. Do You really think on that day, Sunday, it was clear and a "lock" that Feb 5 would happen as it did? Clearly, signals were there. But few would have bet much.

[Huffwx]

Eh.. that storm was predicted well in advance. I think by now it was more or less a lock ... people were just skeptical of the totals.

 

 

Yeah, there were a few runs that pushed the bigger totals down my way, but the pattern looked more north. I got about what I expected...8 inches with some sleet. If the backlash had materialized as modeled, I thought 12 was possible. ROA had 10 and CHO 12.