snowdude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM hour 120. Um gross! Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 0z consensus is south. Uk Cmc and gfs all went south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 0z consensus is south. Uk Cmc and gfs all went south As I said, we're in the transition of h5 solutions. You're more likely to get a N trend with a bowling ball path than a phaser however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM clocks VA, goes south because it doesnt show phase anymore Woops didn't see the r/s line...ugh...this is looking terrible becuase no phase nemore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 0z consensus is south. Uk Cmc and gfs all went south looks like the 18z GFS might have sniffed this one out. i might have to pbp the bad news of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS mean way way north again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ukie 1020 line south of DC-usually snow profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Fat lady is the dressing room warming up. it's 4 days away dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The gfs evolved the exact opposite way I expected. I think the most important thing to note is the ull has slowed down... So much so that it now completely misses the phase. Also, the N Atl low has trended stronger and now looks like a quasi 50/50. Based on this which is probably due to new data, the euro will likely come in as a whiff tonight. We can still however cash in in a few ways. Either the ULL slows down more so the next n/s shortwave catches it, the whole evolution of the n/s is faster (which would fit with the seasonal trend), the quasi 50/50 trends stronger (which allows the ull to turn the corner by building ridging) or the ull trends north. Either way, without a phase (in the last two scenarios) we are looking at a sloppier storm with snow to rain to snow being the most likely outcome. Still a good snow, but not the monster the 12z runs today were advertising. I think this storm should make many more hopeful because there are several ways we end up with a respectable solution, rather than the usual one. Sent from my ADR6425LVW using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 you got stats on that? Nope. Other than a graph that was posted the other day in the NYC forum showing it was lockstep w/ the euro since its upgrade 2/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS mean way way north again I only see it out to 48 on Raleigh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS mean way way north again I'm not even close to discouraged yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS mean way way north again quite wet.. favors elevation nw still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS wetter....1" + for all DC metro...OP outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Nope. Other than a graph that was posted the other day in the NYC forum showing it was lockstep w/ the euro since its upgrade 2/13. interesting. that's a really tiny sample though.. would want to see it over a long period before thinking i need to add another model i look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS wetter....1" + for all DC metro...OP outlier have seen the ens mean be out to lunch plenty of times though. seems people run toward the snowy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 interesting. that's a really tiny sample though.. would want to see it over a long period before thinking i need to add another model i look at. I agree. I was just kinda messing w phin. But i just found the graph and it is neck and neck with the euro. Regardless at this point i prefer the gfs/euro combo. Plus the ens. Ukie is the tiebreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 have seen the ens mean be out to lunch plenty of times though. seems people run toward the snowy model. I am sprinting for the snowiest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 have seen the ens mean be out to lunch plenty of times though. seems people run toward the snowy model. I think it is still useful at this range...looking at spaghetti plots the OP is a huge outlier at the surface...slower and way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I agree. I was just kinda messing w phin. But i just found the graph and it is neck and neck with the euro. Regardless at this point i prefer the gfs/euro combo. Plus the ens. Ukie is the tiebreaker. The UKMET is great in the lab but on the streets in a knife fight with the Euro it always gets stabbed in the kidney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I agree. I was just kinda messing w phin. But i just found the graph and it is neck and neck with the euro. Regardless at this point i prefer the gfs/euro combo. Plus the ens. Ukie is the tiebreaker. Would be cool if it is better now. I'm pretty simple. I usually just do the euro/GFS and ens blend at range. The rest often confuses things IMO. GGEM seemed to lead way last night. Wonder if the euro will deamp further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 have seen the ens mean be out to lunch plenty of times though. seems people run toward the snowy model. Maybe so, at times. But if the reverse were true, with the OP showing a great solution but the ENS mean highly suppressed with nothing, most everyone would probably be really concerned that the OP was an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Even if Euro goes less impressive for us - it's not like it couldn't sway back. Obviously trends are important but we still have time to go here folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 in the context that we all know it is an uphill battle, I like the trends so far at 0z....GFS is better than 18z and still an outlier compared to the ens members which are better than they were at 18z I never thought the GFS sfc depiction matched the upper levels very well....I expected it to look much better...euro has better resolution...I'd trust it better with the surface at this range all other things being equal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think it is still useful at this range...looking at spaghetti plots the OP is a huge outlier at the surface...slower and way south Probably tho we're getting close to the range where the ops start doing better. I don't think the GFS is right per se. I do worry that without a big bomb phase we're going to run into precip issues around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Maybe so, at times. But if the reverse were true, with the OP showing a great solution but the ENS mean highly suppressed with nothing, most everyone would probably be really concerned that the OP was an outlier. I dunno. There's usually heavy rationalization about why the snowiest model is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Even if Euro goes less impressive for us - it's not like it couldn't sway back. Obviously trends are important but we still have time to go here folks. this is really more for fun than anything else...there will be no locked solution yet...I wouldnt be surprised by an open wave off SC or an I-95 snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think it is still useful at this range...looking at spaghetti plots the OP is a huge outlier at the surface...slower and way south I haven't looked overly carefully at the ensembles that much for this. Offhand, would you say they've been fairly consistent in today's runs, despite the OP going from encouraging (06Z) to really great (12Z) to a whiff (18Z and now 00Z)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I dunno. There's usually heavy rationalization about why the snowiest model is the best. It's ingrained in our nature! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 FWIW, the NAVGEM (also 4DVAR, formerly NOGAPS) also sends the H5 max south, but throws it off Norfolk. Precip does get thrown back into the DC area. .5-1". H5 at 72 hrs is up in North Dakota, No Phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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