yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 72 hr UKIE h5 (00z GFS was in NE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 "Always"... Yep, now, this doesn't mean DC/Philly can't get a snowstorm out of this. I liked the 00z NAM @ 84 hours because the ULL had latitude. What the old runs of the GFS were doing was kicking the initial shortwave farther south, this didn't allow for as much WAA to occur before the phase. I'm interested in the GGEM to see what it shows. It has had the most northern latitude with this ULL for the longest amount of runs. What makes me absolutely sick to my stomach is we had some model runs show the potential this storm had with a phase...now that its slowly going off the table it makes me want to puke lol. Why do they tease us? I hear ya. The agreement in the 12Z model cycle...essentially all major global models...was so encouraging. Caused some excitement we haven't seen in these parts in some time. And now it seems the GFS is trending back to what it had the other day. I'm not sure if a bowling ball farther north is better or a nice phase is, or if either would result in about the same thing (considering temperature profiles, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If the nrn stream s/w is truly gone all of a sudden, we probably want the NAM to be right in its placement. Yep. I think another concern is that since there is no cold reinforcement from the northern branch it'll probably be a rain to snow type scenario where you need high VVs to get snow to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ukie & GFS look pretty much the sam except the Ukie is a bit farther North with the closed ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Bob Ryan loves the GFS https://twitter.com/BobRyanABC7/status/307708556277334017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ukie & GFS look pretty much the sam except the Ukie is a bit farther North with the closed ULL. GFS is in NE... UKIE is in N SD.... UKIE would be better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well lets not freak out over the GFS. Hopefully the GGEM stays about the same and the EURO too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Actually both the closed lows are in SD -- very close to each other on UK and GFS 0z runs. GFS is in NE... UKIE is in N SD.... UKIE would be better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Bob Ryan loves the GFS https://twitter.com/BobRyanABC7/status/307708556277334017 Didn't I read on here earlier that he essentially discounted any real possibility that this storm would affect us? Which seems rather brash this far out...I mean, it's tricky but I sure wouldn't wave it off right now. You've got to at least acknowledge it's a real and potential threat, surely that's possible to do without worrying about "hyping". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I feel like the GFS just spit out a lot of QPF with the bowling ball sol'n over NC. When most think of phasing they think a massive storm. If we were to hypothetically get hit by a or b, would the amount of snow be that much different providing cold air was actually there. Usually with a phase we have more cold, but in a situation where that was not an issue, with a bowling ball that strong I have a feeling the solutions wouldn't vary too much in magnitude. Otoh, could it be ever bigger if a n/s phased with a 3 closed contour s/s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ukie & GFS look pretty much the sam except the Ukie is a bit farther North with the closed ULL. Ukie has pretty much been a whiff all along, hasn't it? So not a big change from what it has been showing? Unless it's farther north than its previous cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I feel like the GFS just spit out a lot of QPF with the bowling ball sol'n over NC. When most think of phasing they think a massive storm. If we were to hypothetically get hit by a or b, would the amount of snow be that much different providing cold air was actually there. Usually with a phase we have more cold, but in a situation where that was not an issue, with a bowling ball that strong I have a feeling the solutions wouldn't vary too much in magnitude. Otoh, could it be ever bigger if a n/s phased with a 3 closed contour s/s. Need the amped up solution to get the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 that is one sick gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro will stay the course. GFS just doing it's typical nonsense. We aren't in the heartbreak screw-zone where all models abandon us yet. The GFS has never kept a major storm for 10 days straight. I think this is some kind of algorithmic rule in the programming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I am OK with RIC and CHO celebrating at this range. When they get rain and sleet (respectively) I will smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I know Zwyts doesn't care, but GGEM at 96 has a 1004 L in NE TN and h5 energy in E MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I know Zwyts doesn't care, but GGEM at 96 has a 1004 L in NE TN and h5 energy in E MO The Canadian is total garbage. What a waste of Canuck taxpayer dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The Canadian is total garbage. What a waste of Canuck taxpayer dollars. Its bombing at 120 just NE of HSE... h5 and h7 are nearly co-located on top of the 993 low... then moves NE and deepens to 973 at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Its bombing at 120 just NE of HSE... h5 and h7 are nearly co-located on top of the 993 low... then moves NE and deepens to 973 at 144 Its a bomb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The Canadian is total garbage. What a waste of Canuck taxpayer dollars. I know you've been chilling out in the Oakland cabin making gnomes and birdhouses, but the GGem was recently upgraded and is verifying much better. The northern hosers might be onto something broseph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 that is one sick gradient 3.17.13.jpg I know it wouldn't be...but if that was all snow....oh, mama...we would be shut down for a month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 No thats last nights 0z. Crap. I saw March 1st on the clock and wasn't thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I know you've been chilling out in the Oakland cabin making gnomes and birdhouses, but the GGem was recently upgraded and is verifying much better. The northern hosers might be onto something broseph. Until they can produce a readable map, does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I know you've been chilling out in the Oakland cabin making gnomes and birdhouses, but the GGem was recently upgraded and is verifying much better. The northern hosers might be onto something broseph. Any proof? I'm not being snarky at all. In fact I hope you're right. I haven't seen anything to say its been verifying better vs before the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I know you've been chilling out in the Oakland cabin making gnomes and birdhouses, but the GGem was recently upgraded and is verifying much better. The northern hosers might be onto something broseph. I'm all in on the Canadian if everyone else is. I pretend to be a sophisticated weenie like Ian or zwyts but really I just hug the models that give me snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I know you've been chilling out in the Oakland cabin making gnomes and birdhouses, but the GGem was recently upgraded and is verifying much better. The northern hosers might be onto something broseph. you got stats on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Even in the best of realistic scenarios, isn't this snow to rain to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I know it wouldn't be...but if that was all snow....oh, mama...we would be shut down for a month! It's march. It'd be gone in a week.... or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm all in on the Canadian if everyone else is. I pretend to be a sophisticated weenie like Ian or zwyts but really I just hug the models that give me snow. I don't know if anyone knows this, but the canadian isn't that good for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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