mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well at least it's better than 12z you mean 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 You mean 18z? Yes. My bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If we had a northern stream... this would have been a great run... but its good look for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well at least it's better than 12z Hold on... didnt the 12z show a snow storm for DC/ Balt? Am I missing something? Never mind... you meant the 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Enjoy my awesome paint skills...Try to illustrate my point better. The old EURO runs had this piece then lost it. GFS had it for 6/12z runs, GGEM had it today too.... It doesn't mean it still can't come north, but now it just relies on latitude and not phasing. 12z GFS from today: 00z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Better for sure. Even with out a phase it is north of 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Hold on... didnt the 12z show a snow storm for DC/ Balt? Am I missing something? He meant 18z... see above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 call me a weenie, but I'd still rather it not be a hit at this range and south is good for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 This sure looks volatile. By about 90 hours there were big changes at 500. Gonna be wild riding this one. I'll never make it for the Euro. One thing I know for certain about this year....these ns vorts have always ended up further north at game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 He meant 18z... see above let's debate it for a few more pages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Highzenberg, we've had a GL low all winter it'll be back I'll bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z was better, there was a slight phase at least. This is just a straight line off the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This run absolutely crushes me in Roanoke. Not buying it but fun to look at for now. Hoping we are all happy this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z was better, there was a slight phase at least. This is just a straight line off the SC coast. Its sub 1000 directly off of Hatteras. Not a hit for us. But its def. north of 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 2 options for a hit, the bowling ball comes in north, or a phase to pull it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Enjoy my awesome paint skills...Try to illustrate my point better. The old EURO runs had this piece then lost it. It doesn't mean it still can't come north, but now it just relies on latitude and not phasing. 12z GFS from today: north piece.gif 00z GFS: nonorth.gif Yeah, that pretty much describes it in a visual nutshell. I believe the 06Z GFS also had the northern trough that showed signs of phasing, though it wasn't quite as good for us like 12Z was (obviously). Now, that's just completely gone. Or, rather, it looks shunted east rather than digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 2 options for a hit, the bowling ball comes in north, or a phase to pull it north. OR it is weaker or slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 OR it is weaker or slower. If so, it's more likely to get caught in some sort of flow and come north? Is that what you're saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 2 options for a hit, the bowling ball comes in north, or a phase to pull it north. 18z toss it. oh wait gefs will fix this. might want to start to root for the bowling ball north.. at least we know storms can trend north ... phasing is much tougher around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 "Always"... Yep, now, this doesn't mean DC/Philly can't get a snowstorm out of this. I liked the 00z NAM @ 84 hours because the ULL had latitude. What the old runs of the GFS were doing was kicking the initial shortwave farther south, this didn't allow for as much WAA to occur before the phase. I'm interested in the GGEM to see what it shows. It has had the most northern latitude with this ULL for the longest amount of runs. What makes me absolutely sick to my stomach is we had some model runs show the potential this storm had with a phase...now that its slowly going off the table it makes me want to puke lol. Why do they tease us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If the nrn stream s/w is truly gone all of a sudden, we probably want the NAM to be right in its placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Better or worse than 18z is not really proper classification. It is a different evolution with a different set-up at h5. When the model takes a different n/s solution and moves the track in either direction, you can't really say better or worse. It's different* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 call me a weenie, but I'd still rather it not be a hit at this range and south is good for now I don't know. Maybe not a "hit" at this point, but I would have preferred to see the 00Z at least get back in the ballpark from what the 18Z run had, and show some semblance of the phase idea again rather than rolling a gutter ball off the SC coast. It's disconcerting to see that scenario kind of disappear, though of course that could change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 72 hr UKIE h5 (00z GFS was in NE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 "Always"... Yep, now, this doesn't mean DC/Philly can't get a snowstorm out of this. I liked the 00z NAM @ 84 hours because the ULL had latitude. What the old runs of the GFS were doing was kicking the initial shortwave farther south, this didn't allow for as much WAA to occur before the phase. I'm interested in the GGEM to see what it shows. It has had the most northern latitude with this ULL for the longest amount of runs. What makes me absolutely sick to my stomach is we had some model runs show the potential this storm had with a phase...now that its slowly going off the table it makes me want to puke lol. Why do they tease us? I hear ya. The agreement in the 12Z model cycle...essentially all major global models...was so encouraging. Caused some excitement we haven't seen in these parts in some time. And now it seems the GFS is trending back to what it had the other day. I'm not sure if a bowling ball farther north is better or a nice phase is, or if either would result in about the same thing (considering temperature profiles, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If the nrn stream s/w is truly gone all of a sudden, we probably want the NAM to be right in its placement. Yep. I think another concern is that since there is no cold reinforcement from the northern branch it'll probably be a rain to snow type scenario where you need high VVs to get snow to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ukie & GFS look pretty much the sam except the Ukie is a bit farther North with the closed ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Bob Ryan loves the GFS https://twitter.com/BobRyanABC7/status/307708556277334017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ukie & GFS look pretty much the sam except the Ukie is a bit farther North with the closed ULL. GFS is in NE... UKIE is in N SD.... UKIE would be better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well lets not freak out over the GFS. Hopefully the GGEM stays about the same and the EURO too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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