lsukev Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What about it?Don't have the capability to post graphics, but it's nice. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/Slow moving bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is definitely the sort of storm where the DGEX loves to go nuts. Any 50 inch runs yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 we certainly shouldnt have access to the ECMWF control which shows another wallop for DC area at 12z Yesterdays control looked like today's op. Just pointing it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Don't have the capability to post graphics, but it's nice. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/ Slow moving bomb I-81 smash.. I-95 naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I do want to say though... here's some evidence of how the Euro has kicked butt on this storm so far: From SW/Central/SE VA Winter 2012-13 Thread #703 VABILLUPS1 Posted 25 February 2013 - 03:19 PM 12z Euro day 10 is SE Virginia weather porn. Huge snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 FWIW - 21z SREFs mean has the h5 energy in IA with nice slight ridge over the west centered over UT/E ID/W MT at 87 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 FWIW - 21z SREFs mean has the h5 energy in IA with nice slight ridge over the west centered over UT/E ID/W MT at 87 hrs I don't suppose those are very useful at this range, but they are east with both features, the central vortex and the ne ull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I do want to say though... here's some evidence of how the Euro has kicked butt on this storm so far: From SW/Central/SE VA Winter 2012-13 Thread How the heck can something kick butt if the storm hasn't even happened yet? Just because it's been showing that kind of a scenario doesn't make it right!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If it does turn out right (which I am thinking right now that it likely will) then it will have kicked major butt on the storm. How the heck can something kick butt if the storm hasn't even happened yet? Just because it's been showing that kind of a scenario doesn't make it right!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 How the heck can something kick butt if the storm hasn't even happened yet? Just because it's been showing that kind of a scenario doesn't make it right!!! Kenny, you've been around the boards longer than me I think. The snowiest solution is always right until proven otherwise. Right now the euro control is the frontrunner. Extrapolated nam is up next and the gfs shortly after will only be tossed if it doesnt show what we want. Weenies have no rules or boundries. It's like permanently being 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 If it does turn out right (which I am thinking right now that it likely will) then it will have kicked major butt on the storm. Do you have any reasoning? I'm not trying to be rude or anything - but a gut feeling doesn't mean much when it comes to the atmosphere. I still think there are multiple solutions on the table and it could easily be a whiff for us. This is where we get into trouble as a forum - we start trying to congratulate models before it's even within 3-days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 If it does turn out right (which I am thinking right now that it likely will) then it will have kicked major butt on the storm. With a storm seemingly so sensitive to a whole range of factors, declaring a model likely to be right at 5 days is going to be met with strong criticism, as it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Do you have any reasoning? I'm not trying to be rude or anything - but a gut feeling doesn't mean much when it comes to the atmosphere. I still think there are multiple solutions on the table and it could easily be a whiff for us. This is where we get into trouble as a forum - we start trying to congratulate models before it's even within 3-days. LOL, I think we said pretty much the same thing at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is random but I was talking to my parents about the potential storm and my dad always gives me a hard time about the weather and says things like, "just look out the window." etc etc. But this time, and remember he doesn't know much about the weather, he randomly says, "what's the EURO say? I'd go with that scenario." My jaw dropped and I was like, "Whaattt?" How the heck do you know about the EURO. He said they talk about the models all the time on tv. Guess I don't watch much tv anymore. haha. So lock it in, my dad says the EURO wins. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Based on everything I've seen today, a miss is still more likely with a hit gaining points every 6 hours. The setup is tricky and fraught with peril. All jokes aside, all weenies need to accept that fact. More can go wrong that right and will remain that way until gametime if there even is a gametime. This isn't a ss vort with a block. Nothing will come "easy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Does it matter where the h5 energy enters the US? 00z NAM tonight likes NW ND and is slightly slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Does it matter where the h5 energy enters the US? 00z NAM tonight likes NW ND Much like the sref ens, and yes it does matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NAM not digging as much as 18z. Think thats good because 12z GGEM didn't dig that much either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Theres three different scenarios. The ULL has more latitude and just bowls its way east under the block like EURO, the shortwave heads a bit farther south, but gets phased by a piece of the northern branch like the 12z GFS, or the vort heads south but misses the phase like 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 First time I've seen a 1025 lp (at hour 84) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The differences between the position of the closed 500 low on the 18z GFS versus the 00z NAM is quite large. The NAM is in SE ND at 6z Wednesday while the GFS is in central Nebraska. Edit: Also, comparing the 12z GFS to the 00z NAM, it's even more of a disparity with the 12z GFS being in Northeast Kansas. What I am taking away from that is the trend is slower, which I would think "should" translate into letting the ULL over the Maine area to move/washout. I believe Bernie Rayno was hinting that slower was better in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The differences between the position of the closed 500 low on the 18z GFS versus the 00z NAM is quite large. The NAM is in SE ND at 6z Wednesday while the GFS is in central Nebraska. Edit: Also, comparing the 12z GFS to the 00z NAM, it's even more of a disparity with the 12z GFS being in Northeast Kansas. What I am taking away from that is the trend is slower, which I would think "should" translate into letting the ULL over the Maine area to move/washout. I believe Bernie Rayno was hinting that slower was better in this case. but too slow is bad I recall at least one, and pretty sure there were two, systems this year that slower was better but then it slowed too much and a GL low showed up on the scene a tough 100 hrs to come on this one I just hope it makes up its mind early on so I don't waste my time with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Don't know if its useful to compare runs from different models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Don't know if its useful to compare runs from different models. lol I know 90% of what we do is not useful and don't know about the other 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 but too slow is bad I recall at least one, and pretty sure there were two, systems this year that slower was better but then it slowed too much and a GL low showed up on the scene a tough 100 hrs to come on this one I just hope it makes up its mind early on so I don't waste my time with it The NAM is slowing things down. Most people in the know here don't place any stock in the NAM at that range, but it does raise an interesting question. Does slower make an earlier phase more likely? I'm sure slower is probably better wrt the ne ull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Bored, my friend. And anxious... For sure...aren't we all! If the 18Z GFS was at least in the ballpark of the 12Z solutions, we'd all be breathing a bit easier. But that really threw a monkey wrench into things after such good agreement in all the 12Z models, and after the GFS itself trended toward what the Euro was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS looks pretty similar through 48 on 00z compared to 18z with some minor differences on h5 lil slower at 57 and the the ULL is a bit further SE -- 00z compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks good so far, vort max comes near my favorite spot. Southern wave looks a bit faster this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 How's the block looking compared to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This times about a billion. If we assimilated no observations into the 18z assimilation, it would show the EXACT same solution as 12z. That's how it works, we don't start from scratch, we combined a model state with observations. For 18z, we have a ton of observations, notably satellite-based, surface and aircraft based sensors (domenstic passenger and cargo planes from various vendors). A 120-h forecast from 18z will almost always be better than a 126-h forecast from 12z. Great info. Thanks for posting it! Is the model run with the same resolution on all model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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