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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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but too slow is bad

I recall at least one, and pretty sure there were two, systems this year that slower was better but then it slowed too much and a GL low showed up on the scene

a tough 100 hrs to come on this one

I just hope it makes up its mind early on so I don't waste my time with it

The NAM is slowing things down. Most people in the know here don't place any stock in the NAM at that range, but it does raise an interesting question. Does slower make an earlier phase more likely? I'm sure slower is probably better wrt the ne ull.

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Bored, my friend.  And anxious...

For sure...aren't we all!  If the 18Z GFS was at least in the ballpark of the 12Z solutions, we'd all be breathing a bit easier.  But that really threw a monkey wrench into things after such good agreement in all the 12Z models, and after the GFS itself trended toward what the Euro was showing.

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This times about a billion.  If we assimilated no observations into the 18z assimilation, it would show the EXACT same solution as 12z.  That's how it works, we don't start from scratch, we combined a model state with observations.  For 18z, we have a ton of observations, notably satellite-based, surface and aircraft based sensors (domenstic passenger and cargo planes from various vendors).

 

A 120-h forecast from 18z will almost always be better than a 126-h forecast from 12z.

 

Great info. Thanks for posting it! Is the model run with the same resolution on all model runs?

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but too slow is bad

I recall at least one, and pretty sure there were two, systems this year that slower was better but then it slowed too much and a GL low showed up on the scene

a tough 100 hrs to come on this one

I just hope it makes up its mind early on so I don't waste my time with it

Why would you wanna see a fast, progressive bowling ball? Slow is good.

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On the whole debate on 18Z/06Z... I have been watching models for a long time and I am pretty sure those "off-hour runs" do more weird things than the 12Z/00Z runs. Yeah, maybe the folks at the NWS have stats that show at 500mb they are nearly as good as 12Z. And the UKMET is almost as good as the Euro even when it shows the low headed to Spain. For us weenies who look at the surface maps it isn't all that.

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