Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Hmm that's a bit ballsy. Is this really the same pattern we have had? This is what he always does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18Z DTK ENS mean well north of the op Most of DC Metro 0.75 - 1.0", DCA - 1.0"+ Looking at Spaghettis, OP DTK likely south of every single member except one And the Op is the quickest to scoot out and becomes the furthest NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think CHO got around 20-24" in March 62...so yeah...seems unlikely The gradient in that storm was ridiculous-- 4" DCA to 11" Silver Spring to 19" Rockville to 35" (!!) Front Royal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is what he always does He was just on again and said he "sees no reason to believe there will be any impact at all to us" EDIT: He also pointed to the wrong feature as being what will become the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 The members are just about all much more amped and north. But they are showing a wide range of outcomes and timing. So, who knows. We just have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 people don't view models in the correct context...they view them as either/or...We all know the Euro is the best global weather model, but it doesnt mean it is always better with every single feature in every single scenario....that isnt how verification scores work.... If the Euro is 100-62, and the GFS is 91-71...they are both damn good models and the GFS is going to win plenty of head to head battles.. Of course we know the NAM and GGEM are probably both 30 games out of 1st place Ha, good one. You must have watched the Nats last night like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is what he always does It's usually a good play when it's not 100% obvious we're going to get something. Climo is a problem at this pt one way or another.. not that it can't snow but ppl should use it as some guide at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The gradient in that storm was ridiculous-- 4" DCA to 11" Silver Spring to 19" Rockville to 35" (!!) Front Royal. Where did you find that obs for Front Royal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah that sounds like Bob/the local mets in general doing their typical thing. I obviously wouldn't go on air and call for a huge storm but saying he expects it to go south of us and have no impact outright is not smart. He may very well end up correct but unfortunately the general public won't remember him saying this if he changes his mind on Monday. Well, that's true. Doug K on Oct 22 (pretty sure of the date) said on air that Sandy would have no effects on the east coast. Swear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Where did you find that obs for Front Royal? Ambrose's DC Weatherbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18z dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 He was just on again and said he "sees no reason to believe there will be any impact at all to us" EDIT: He also pointed to the wrong feature as being what will become the storm. I loved the part about showing the wrong feature as if it not bad enough to speak to the public in exact terms 5 days out. Very irresponsible and somewhat arrogant. I guess when you've been around long enough there's no accountability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 HPC ... " THE ECMWF SCENARIO SUGGESTSCONSIDERABLY MORE PHASING WITH BOTH PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH... ANDTHUS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER/STRONGER THAN THE GFS AS IT REACHESTHE EAST COAST BY DAY 5/WED. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER SEPARATIONWITH THE TROUGH CROSSING CALIFORNIA AND THUS HAS LESSPHASING...AND IN FACT INSTEAD HELPS TO ACCELERATE THE TROUGHACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE RESULT IS A FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTIONALONG THE EAST COAST. MANY REASONS SUPPORT A MORE GFS-LIKESOLUTION HOWEVER...INCLUDING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLEMEANS...STRONGER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...AND THAT SO MANYSMALL-SCALE INTERACTIONS NEED TO OCCUR FOR THE ECMWF TOVERIFY...LENDING ITSELF TO A LOW BUT NOT ZERO PROBABILITY OUTCOME.THEREFORE...THE MODEL CHOICE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A 3-WAY BLEND OFTHE 00Z GFS ALONG WITH THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH DAY5...BEFORE SWITCHING TO A PREDOMINANT GEFS MEAN SOLUTION. THISSYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SWATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATEPRECIPITATION...SOME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIESSOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLY/CENTRAL ANDSOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. IFTHE ECMWF VERIFIES...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ANDINFLUENCE AREAS FARTHER NORTH TO POSSIBLY INCLUDE THE MID-ATLANTICREGION AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLYBELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Hmmm, it looks like the block to the north is the biggest factor - not necessarily the short wave itself. This according to some of the ensemble sensitivity products via Stonybrook/CSTAR: Main Page http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/EnSense_Main.html http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/Plots/2013030112/region1/day5/EOF_4fig_NCEP.gif (EOF 1 = 66% of the varience) http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/Plots/2013030112/region1/day5/SEN_1_NCEP_Z500_2.5-5day.gif Oh, and I enjoy people getting their panties in a bunch over the deterministic 06/18Z runs this far out (120+ hours). It's like we're trying to build a house with tinker toys. Stick with the means, EC and GEFS ensembles and go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just took a quick look at the 18z GFS and GEFS, and I am not one of the "its 18z throw it out" people, but at 120 hours out individual runs are going to bounce around a bit. More important to me the GEFS improved from 12z and more then just a little. Precip for the event increased significantly. THat is the 4th consecutive run where the GEFS showed significant improvement. I consider this run a win regardless of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The GFS ensembles have continued to show a range of possibilities, including the bowling-ball OTS. So, it's not surprising the Op shows that solution still. At Day 5, going with a GEFS/Euro ensemble blend is always a pretty good scenario, especially if they agree with each other, as is the case now. That blend gives us a great (but not historic) March snowstorm if verified. I'm pretty good with that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The GFS ensembles have continued to show a range of possibilities, including the bowling-ball OTS. So, it's not surprising the Op shows that solution still. At Day 5, going with a GEFS/Euro ensemble blend is always a pretty good scenario, especially if they agree with each other, as is the case now. That blend gives us a great (but not historic) March snowstorm if verified. I'm pretty good with that right now. I looked through the 18z ens. Better than 12z but plenty of nerve grinding and heartbreak mixed in. Trend is good but we'll obviously suffer through the next 48 hrs. I would like amwx to go into storm mode for something that may actually affect our region even if it busts. We've been out of the game on so many levels for so long.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I looked through the 18z ens. Better than 12z but plenty of nerve grinding and heartbreak mixed in. Trend is good but we'll obviously suffer through the next 48 hrs. I would like amwx to go into storm mode for something that may actually affect our region even if it busts. We've been out of the game on so many levels for so long.... The storm is only 48 hours away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Good point. This is the first step back of the last 4 though. But yes, the gfs without a doubt has been less phase happy than the others. thankfully the 18z ensembles look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z GFS ens man was much better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ambrose's DC Weatherbook Thanks. I see something for my b-day or Christmas list now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Mean total precip trends in the GEFS the last 4 runs for BWI: 0z: 0.2" 6z: 0.46" 12z: 0.71" 18z: 0.94" That's a pretty damn good trend for us. Verbatim, many of the members are rain, but I don't care much about the GEFS members boundary layer temps. Give me a big low off OC with 850s below zero and I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The storm is only 48 hours away? Lol- if it's pretty much a no go we'll know in 48. If its a true heartbreaker we wont know until radar dries up before our eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z dgex What about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 thankfully the 18z ensembles look better Weenies shouldnt have access to the op before the ens outside of 72. We would be better off that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Weenies shouldnt have access to the op before the ens outside of 72. We would be better off that way. There are a whole lot of things to add to that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I have to say it is at least nice to see some good QPF showing up on the models. It has been a while. Warm/wet and cold/dry has to break sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 There are a whole lot of things to add to that list. we certainly shouldnt have access to the ECMWF control which shows another wallop for DC area at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I have to say it is at least nice to see some good QPF showing up on the models. It has been a while. Warm/wet and cold/dry has to break sometime. It is going to snow again in the DC area someday. We wont get shut out every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Henry Margusity @Accu_Henry Gfs is playing the normal games. Ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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