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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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I don't understand the disrespect shown by many toward the GFS.

Don't forget that the Euro had Sandy coming up the Chesapeake Bay. Don't forget that it had the Christmas storm in Wisconsin. Don't forget it gave us a big snow in early November that missed us big time. Dont forget the big snow it gave us in early Dec. Don't forget that it gave us 6 inches on Jan 25 and we got a half inch. And lastly, don't forget Boxing Day.

Storms are different, but the notion that the Euro can't be dead wrong here is nothing more than wishful thinking. We all want the bomb, but that has nothing to do with whether we get it.

I agree with Bob. I think we will know by Sunday. The past three big storms have been pretty much locked in by that time frame.

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Regardless of the 18z scores and all that, it's the first run of a respectable global showing a southern whiff today. It can definitely be right. No question about that. But the question we should ask ourselves is if the 18z is a front runner and the 0z suite will follow or is it a standard "uh oh" moment that happens before every single decent sized storm at this lead? Even if 0z does go haywire, does that even mean that big solutions earlier today are no longer possible?

Sunday is prob the earliest the general track is locked in and then it's just details. This is kinda par for the course even though it's not well received.

 

we can't really win emotionally at this point.  no matter what the gfs showed, we'd find a way to be concerned.  if it's a hit, it's still 120 hours out.  if it's a miss, it might be right.  hard to win.  i agree with sunday morning being a good time to start taking these models seriously.

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18Z DTK ENS mean well north of the op

Most of DC Metro 0.75 - 1.0", DCA - 1.0"+

Looking at Spaghettis, OP DTK likely south of every single member except one

Allan's maps make a comparison to 12z tough, but the mean actually looks wetter than 12 to me.

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Hmm that's a bit ballsy. Is this really the same pattern we have had?

 

Yeah that sounds like Bob/the local mets in general doing their typical thing. I obviously wouldn't go on air and call for a huge storm but saying he expects it to go south of us and have no impact outright is not smart. He may very well end up correct but unfortunately the general public won't remember him saying this if he changes his mind on Monday. 

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18Z DTK ENS mean well north of the op

 

Most of DC Metro 0.75 - 1.0", DCA - 1.0"+

 

Looking at Spaghettis, OP DTK likely south of every single member except one

Ha.  Well played.... (though full disclosure: I have nothing to do with the model development nor the ensembles).

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This is the difference all along. Last night when the GFS made the big jump, it happened because it scooted that low further east earlier. It's basically right back where it was yesterday at this time.

That part may be true, but the overall evolution of the GFS today is much different. The main S/W is slower, which is more in line with the Euro. Retrogression of the low may still yeild a positive solution for us. Like I said, I want to see how this trends further tonight.

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GFS ens mean is pretty reasonable for a storm solution.. favors elevation with no ridiculous totals. It's probably too smoothed but I'd buy into that solution quicker than someone sw of DC getting 24".

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people don't view models in the correct context...they view them as either/or...We all know the Euro is the best global weather model, but it doesnt mean it is always better with every single feature in every single scenario....that isnt how verification scores work....

If the Euro is 100-62, and the GFS is 91-71...they are both damn good models and the GFS is going to win plenty of head to head battles..

Of course we know the NAM and GGEM are probably both 30 games out of 1st place

Ha, good one. You must have watched the Nats last night like me.

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This is what he always does

 

It's usually a good play when it's not 100% obvious we're going to get something.  Climo is a problem at this pt one way or another.. not that it can't snow but ppl should use it as some guide at the very least. 

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Yeah that sounds like Bob/the local mets in general doing their typical thing. I obviously wouldn't go on air and call for a huge storm but saying he expects it to go south of us and have no impact outright is not smart. He may very well end up correct but unfortunately the general public won't remember him saying this if he changes his mind on Monday.

Well, that's true. Doug K on Oct 22 (pretty sure of the date) said on air that Sandy would have no effects on the east coast. Swear.

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He was just on again and said he "sees no reason to believe there will be any impact at all to us"

EDIT: He also pointed to the wrong feature as being what will become the storm. 

 

 

I loved the part about showing the wrong feature as if it not bad enough to speak to the public in exact terms 5 days out. Very irresponsible and somewhat arrogant. I guess when you've been around long enough there's no accountability.

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HPC ...

 

" THE ECMWF SCENARIO SUGGESTS
CONSIDERABLY MORE PHASING WITH BOTH PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH... AND
THUS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER/STRONGER THAN THE GFS AS IT REACHES
THE EAST COAST BY DAY 5/WED.  THE GFS SHOWS GREATER SEPARATION
WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING CALIFORNIA AND THUS HAS LESS
PHASING...AND IN FACT INSTEAD HELPS TO ACCELERATE THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  THE RESULT IS A FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION
ALONG THE EAST COAST.  MANY REASONS SUPPORT A MORE GFS-LIKE
SOLUTION  HOWEVER...INCLUDING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...STRONGER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...AND THAT SO MANY
SMALL-SCALE INTERACTIONS NEED TO OCCUR FOR THE ECMWF TO
VERIFY...LENDING ITSELF TO A LOW BUT NOT ZERO PROBABILITY OUTCOME.
THEREFORE...THE MODEL CHOICE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A 3-WAY BLEND OF
THE 00Z GFS ALONG WITH THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH DAY
5...BEFORE SWITCHING TO A PREDOMINANT GEFS MEAN SOLUTION.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SWATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION...SOME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLY/CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.  IF
THE ECMWF VERIFIES...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
INFLUENCE AREAS FARTHER NORTH TO POSSIBLY INCLUDE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY."
 

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Hmmm, it looks like the block to the north is the biggest factor - not necessarily the short wave itself.  This according to some of the ensemble sensitivity products via Stonybrook/CSTAR:

 

Main Page


 


(EOF 1 = 66% of the varience)

 


 

Oh, and I enjoy people getting their panties in a bunch over the deterministic 06/18Z runs this far out (120+ hours).  It's like we're trying to build a house with tinker toys.  Stick with the means, EC and GEFS ensembles and go from there ;)
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Just took a quick look at the 18z GFS and GEFS, and I am not one of the "its 18z throw it out" people, but at 120 hours out individual runs are going to bounce around a bit.  More important to me the GEFS improved from 12z and more then just a little.  Precip for the event increased significantly.  THat is the 4th consecutive run where the GEFS showed significant improvement.  I consider this run a win regardless of the op run. 

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The GFS ensembles have continued to show a range of possibilities, including the bowling-ball OTS.  So, it's not surprising the Op shows that solution still. 

 

At Day 5, going with a GEFS/Euro ensemble blend is always a pretty good scenario, especially if they agree with each other, as is the case now.  That blend gives us a great (but not historic) March snowstorm if verified.  I'm pretty good with that right now. 

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The GFS ensembles have continued to show a range of possibilities, including the bowling-ball OTS. So, it's not surprising the Op shows that solution still.

At Day 5, going with a GEFS/Euro ensemble blend is always a pretty good scenario, especially if they agree with each other, as is the case now. That blend gives us a great (but not historic) March snowstorm if verified. I'm pretty good with that right now.

I looked through the 18z ens. Better than 12z but plenty of nerve grinding and heartbreak mixed in. Trend is good but we'll obviously suffer through the next 48 hrs.

I would like amwx to go into storm mode for something that may actually affect our region even if it busts. We've been out of the game on so many levels for so long....

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I looked through the 18z ens. Better than 12z but plenty of nerve grinding and heartbreak mixed in. Trend is good but we'll obviously suffer through the next 48 hrs.

I would like amwx to go into storm mode for something that may actually affect our region even if it busts. We've been out of the game on so many levels for so long....

The storm is only 48 hours away?

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Mean total precip trends in the GEFS the last 4 runs for BWI:

 

0z: 0.2"

6z: 0.46"

12z: 0.71"

18z: 0.94"

 

That's a pretty damn good trend for us.  Verbatim, many of the members are rain, but I don't care much about the GEFS members boundary layer temps.  Give me a big low off OC with 850s below zero and I'll take my chances. 

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