DCAlexandria Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Woops I meant vice versa you're perhaps a top 10 worst poster in this forum Cool. But let's talk about the storm. My guess is GFS ensnambles out perform operstional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 it's amazing how people still dismiss the 18z run even though there is no statistical evidence to do so as far as i know. it's like a weather urban myth. bottom line though is we're still way out.. so no one should have been too excited about the earlier runs. This times about a billion. If we assimilated no observations into the 18z assimilation, it would show the EXACT same solution as 12z. That's how it works, we don't start from scratch, we combined a model state with observations. For 18z, we have a ton of observations, notably satellite-based, surface and aircraft based sensors (domenstic passenger and cargo planes from various vendors). A 120-h forecast from 18z will almost always be better than a 126-h forecast from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 IIRC verification scores have the 18z a wee bit lower than the 0/12z runs but I doubt it is anything dramatic. how about 6z? I could see the off runs having issues but I dont get why just the 18Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS has done well against the Euro as of late. I've noticed the GFS has done better than the Euro when the pattern has been progressive this winter and the Euro has done better when it has been blocky (Sandy, Feb. 9 Eastern New England blizzard). At least to my weenie eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 IIRC verification scores have the 18z a wee bit lower than the 0/12z runs but I doubt it is anything dramatic. Anecdotal evidence says it has some weird runs from time to time but I think we party have selective memories. I think it more or less shows how timing and small changes make huge difference for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I see the NYC forum pooh-poohing the depiction of the ULL hanging around Maine that long like the 18z GFS has it. But I am reasonably certain around a week ago there were plenty of model runs that showed ULLs just meandering through the great lakes and messing up any potential depicted storms. Which is to say, it seems potentially plausible to me that might not move out quickly enough and mess up this potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I have never been so satisfied about a complete miss from the GFS. Perfect timing for this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Anecdotal evidence says it has some weird runs from time to time but I think we party have selective memories. I think it more or less shows how timing and small changes make huge difference for us. Yup. I was only trying to say that the 6/18z runs aren't as bad as a lot of people try to make them out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Regardless of the 18z scores and all that, it's the first run of a respectable global showing a southern whiff today. It can definitely be right. No question about that. But the question we should ask ourselves is if the 18z is a front runner and the 0z suite will follow or is it a standard "uh oh" moment that happens before every single decent sized storm at this lead? Even if 0z does go haywire, does that even mean that big solutions earlier today are no longer possible? Sunday is prob the earliest the general track is locked in and then it's just details. This is kinda par for the course even though it's not well received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 it's amazing how people still dismiss the 18z run even though there is no statistical evidence to do so as far as i know. it's like a weather urban myth. bottom line though is we're still way out.. so no one should have been too excited about the earlier runs. Im not saying Im dismissing it, but does this run of the GFS make the storm more or less likely to happen? IMO, No. We all know what can go wrong and that this is not written in stone...but the threat is obviously very much there....thats all we can take at this stage of the game. Therefore, no I do not care that the 18z GFS shows what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 We need winwxluvr in here later to tell us which 18z ens #'s show a crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Regardless of the 18z scores and all that, it's the first run of a respectable global showing a southern whiff today. It can definitely be right. No question about that. But the question we should ask ourselves is if the 18z is a front runner and the 0z suite will follow or is it a standard "uh oh" moment that happens before every single decent sized storm at this lead? Even if 0z does go haywire, does that even mean that big solutions earlier today are no longer possible? Sunday is prob the earliest the general track is locked in and then it's just details. This is kinda par for the course even though it's not well received. well to be honest, the 12z gfs is really the outlier of the last 4 GFS cycles now....so i wouldn't say your assessment holds much water. EDIT: not to mention the 12z GFS ensembles had a good number of misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 well to be honest, the 12z gfs is really the outlier of the last 4 GFS cycles now....so i wouldn't say your assessment holds much water. EDIT: not to mention the 12z GFS ensembles had a good number of misses Good point. This is the first step back of the last 4 though. But yes, the gfs without a doubt has been less phase happy than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 so when I looked at the panels vs 12Z I saw the bigger difference. Its the handling of the N Atl low. The 18z GFS trended toward retrograding it further, which washed out the GL S/W and delayed the phase. It shows an interesting trend and should not be entirely dismissed, but could lead to a much different evolution than what is currently shown. This is the difference all along. Last night when the GFS made the big jump, it happened because it scooted that low further east earlier. It's basically right back where it was yesterday at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 We need winwxluvr in here later to tell us which 18z ens #'s show a crushing. Too early.....but I will. I have been honest all along. If I think it looks bad, I'll say it. What I think doesn't matter, but what I think is that it all hinges on the ull in the natl. If it moves, we'll be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's just another scenario...models will do this. Let's not buy too much into it...for now. Also...I see the worst posters are coming out of the woodwork like clockwork. And the questionable posters are turning bad like clockwork as well :| Bob Ryan says there is nothing to suggest at this time that a storm will impact us, he expects it to follow the established pattern and go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18Z DTK ENS mean well north of the op Most of DC Metro 0.75 - 1.0", DCA - 1.0"+ Looking at Spaghettis, OP DTK likely south of every single member except one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah its only 400 miles south of the 12Z at 120. better it be south than north at this point you know what they say, once she goes north to ACK, she don't come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Bob Ryan says there is nothing to suggest at this time that a storm will impact us, he expects it to follow the established pattern and go south. Hmm that's a bit ballsy. Is this really the same pattern we have had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 I don't understand the disrespect shown by many toward the GFS. Don't forget that the Euro had Sandy coming up the Chesapeake Bay. Don't forget that it had the Christmas storm in Wisconsin. Don't forget it gave us a big snow in early November that missed us big time. Dont forget the big snow it gave us in early Dec. Don't forget that it gave us 6 inches on Jan 25 and we got a half inch. And lastly, don't forget Boxing Day. Storms are different, but the notion that the Euro can't be dead wrong here is nothing more than wishful thinking. We all want the bomb, but that has nothing to do with whether we get it. I agree with Bob. I think we will know by Sunday. The past three big storms have been pretty much locked in by that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 There should be more panic if euro lost storm. The euro solution whatever that may be will probably prevail here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Regardless of the 18z scores and all that, it's the first run of a respectable global showing a southern whiff today. It can definitely be right. No question about that. But the question we should ask ourselves is if the 18z is a front runner and the 0z suite will follow or is it a standard "uh oh" moment that happens before every single decent sized storm at this lead? Even if 0z does go haywire, does that even mean that big solutions earlier today are no longer possible? Sunday is prob the earliest the general track is locked in and then it's just details. This is kinda par for the course even though it's not well received. we can't really win emotionally at this point. no matter what the gfs showed, we'd find a way to be concerned. if it's a hit, it's still 120 hours out. if it's a miss, it might be right. hard to win. i agree with sunday morning being a good time to start taking these models seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Even though OP was bad, ENS is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 18Z DTK ENS mean well north of the op Most of DC Metro 0.75 - 1.0", DCA - 1.0"+ Looking at Spaghettis, OP DTK likely south of every single member except one Allan's maps make a comparison to 12z tough, but the mean actually looks wetter than 12 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Hmm that's a bit ballsy. Is this really the same pattern we have had? Yeah that sounds like Bob/the local mets in general doing their typical thing. I obviously wouldn't go on air and call for a huge storm but saying he expects it to go south of us and have no impact outright is not smart. He may very well end up correct but unfortunately the general public won't remember him saying this if he changes his mind on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18Z DTK ENS mean well north of the op Most of DC Metro 0.75 - 1.0", DCA - 1.0"+ Looking at Spaghettis, OP DTK likely south of every single member except one Ha. Well played.... (though full disclosure: I have nothing to do with the model development nor the ensembles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I don't understand the disrespect shown by many toward the GFS. Don't forget that the Euro had Sandy coming up the Chesapeake Bay. Don't forget that it had the Christmas storm in Wisconsin. Don't forget it gave us a big snow in early November that missed us big time. Dont forget the big snow it gave us in early Dec. Don't forget that it gave us 6 inches on Jan 25 and we got a half inch. And lastly, don't forget Boxing Day. Storms are different, but the notion that the Euro can't be dead wrong here is nothing more than wishful thinking. We all want the bomb, but that has nothing to do with whether we get it. I agree with Bob. I think we will know by Sunday. The past three big storms have been pretty much locked in by that time frame. people don't view models in the correct context...they view them as either/or...We all know the Euro is the best global weather model, but it doesnt mean it is always better with every single feature in every single scenario....that isnt how verification scores work.... If the Euro is 100-62, and the GFS is 91-71...they are both damn good models and the GFS is going to win plenty of head to head battles.. Of course we know the NAM and GGEM are probably both 30 games out of 1st place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is the difference all along. Last night when the GFS made the big jump, it happened because it scooted that low further east earlier. It's basically right back where it was yesterday at this time. That part may be true, but the overall evolution of the GFS today is much different. The main S/W is slower, which is more in line with the Euro. Retrogression of the low may still yeild a positive solution for us. Like I said, I want to see how this trends further tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS ens mean is pretty reasonable for a storm solution.. favors elevation with no ridiculous totals. It's probably too smoothed but I'd buy into that solution quicker than someone sw of DC getting 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS ens mean is pretty reasonable for a storm solution.. favors elevation with no ridiculous totals. It's probably too smoothed but I'd buy into that solution quicker than someone sw of DC getting 24". I think CHO got around 20-24" in March 62...so yeah...seems unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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