WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 I don't understand the disrespect shown by many toward the GFS. Don't forget that the Euro had Sandy coming up the Chesapeake Bay. Don't forget that it had the Christmas storm in Wisconsin. Don't forget it gave us a big snow in early November that missed us big time. Dont forget the big snow it gave us in early Dec. Don't forget that it gave us 6 inches on Jan 25 and we got a half inch. And lastly, don't forget Boxing Day. Storms are different, but the notion that the Euro can't be dead wrong here is nothing more than wishful thinking. We all want the bomb, but that has nothing to do with whether we get it. I agree with Bob. I think we will know by Sunday. The past three big storms have been pretty much locked in by that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 There should be more panic if euro lost storm. The euro solution whatever that may be will probably prevail here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Regardless of the 18z scores and all that, it's the first run of a respectable global showing a southern whiff today. It can definitely be right. No question about that. But the question we should ask ourselves is if the 18z is a front runner and the 0z suite will follow or is it a standard "uh oh" moment that happens before every single decent sized storm at this lead? Even if 0z does go haywire, does that even mean that big solutions earlier today are no longer possible? Sunday is prob the earliest the general track is locked in and then it's just details. This is kinda par for the course even though it's not well received. we can't really win emotionally at this point. no matter what the gfs showed, we'd find a way to be concerned. if it's a hit, it's still 120 hours out. if it's a miss, it might be right. hard to win. i agree with sunday morning being a good time to start taking these models seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Even though OP was bad, ENS is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 18Z DTK ENS mean well north of the op Most of DC Metro 0.75 - 1.0", DCA - 1.0"+ Looking at Spaghettis, OP DTK likely south of every single member except one Allan's maps make a comparison to 12z tough, but the mean actually looks wetter than 12 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Hmm that's a bit ballsy. Is this really the same pattern we have had? Yeah that sounds like Bob/the local mets in general doing their typical thing. I obviously wouldn't go on air and call for a huge storm but saying he expects it to go south of us and have no impact outright is not smart. He may very well end up correct but unfortunately the general public won't remember him saying this if he changes his mind on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18Z DTK ENS mean well north of the op Most of DC Metro 0.75 - 1.0", DCA - 1.0"+ Looking at Spaghettis, OP DTK likely south of every single member except one Ha. Well played.... (though full disclosure: I have nothing to do with the model development nor the ensembles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is the difference all along. Last night when the GFS made the big jump, it happened because it scooted that low further east earlier. It's basically right back where it was yesterday at this time. That part may be true, but the overall evolution of the GFS today is much different. The main S/W is slower, which is more in line with the Euro. Retrogression of the low may still yeild a positive solution for us. Like I said, I want to see how this trends further tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS ens mean is pretty reasonable for a storm solution.. favors elevation with no ridiculous totals. It's probably too smoothed but I'd buy into that solution quicker than someone sw of DC getting 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18Z DTK ENS mean well north of the op Most of DC Metro 0.75 - 1.0", DCA - 1.0"+ Looking at Spaghettis, OP DTK likely south of every single member except one And the Op is the quickest to scoot out and becomes the furthest NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think CHO got around 20-24" in March 62...so yeah...seems unlikely The gradient in that storm was ridiculous-- 4" DCA to 11" Silver Spring to 19" Rockville to 35" (!!) Front Royal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is what he always does He was just on again and said he "sees no reason to believe there will be any impact at all to us" EDIT: He also pointed to the wrong feature as being what will become the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 The members are just about all much more amped and north. But they are showing a wide range of outcomes and timing. So, who knows. We just have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 people don't view models in the correct context...they view them as either/or...We all know the Euro is the best global weather model, but it doesnt mean it is always better with every single feature in every single scenario....that isnt how verification scores work.... If the Euro is 100-62, and the GFS is 91-71...they are both damn good models and the GFS is going to win plenty of head to head battles.. Of course we know the NAM and GGEM are probably both 30 games out of 1st place Ha, good one. You must have watched the Nats last night like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is what he always does It's usually a good play when it's not 100% obvious we're going to get something. Climo is a problem at this pt one way or another.. not that it can't snow but ppl should use it as some guide at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The gradient in that storm was ridiculous-- 4" DCA to 11" Silver Spring to 19" Rockville to 35" (!!) Front Royal. Where did you find that obs for Front Royal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah that sounds like Bob/the local mets in general doing their typical thing. I obviously wouldn't go on air and call for a huge storm but saying he expects it to go south of us and have no impact outright is not smart. He may very well end up correct but unfortunately the general public won't remember him saying this if he changes his mind on Monday. Well, that's true. Doug K on Oct 22 (pretty sure of the date) said on air that Sandy would have no effects on the east coast. Swear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Where did you find that obs for Front Royal? Ambrose's DC Weatherbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18z dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 He was just on again and said he "sees no reason to believe there will be any impact at all to us" EDIT: He also pointed to the wrong feature as being what will become the storm. I loved the part about showing the wrong feature as if it not bad enough to speak to the public in exact terms 5 days out. Very irresponsible and somewhat arrogant. I guess when you've been around long enough there's no accountability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 HPC ... " THE ECMWF SCENARIO SUGGESTSCONSIDERABLY MORE PHASING WITH BOTH PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH... ANDTHUS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER/STRONGER THAN THE GFS AS IT REACHESTHE EAST COAST BY DAY 5/WED. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER SEPARATIONWITH THE TROUGH CROSSING CALIFORNIA AND THUS HAS LESSPHASING...AND IN FACT INSTEAD HELPS TO ACCELERATE THE TROUGHACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE RESULT IS A FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTIONALONG THE EAST COAST. MANY REASONS SUPPORT A MORE GFS-LIKESOLUTION HOWEVER...INCLUDING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLEMEANS...STRONGER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...AND THAT SO MANYSMALL-SCALE INTERACTIONS NEED TO OCCUR FOR THE ECMWF TOVERIFY...LENDING ITSELF TO A LOW BUT NOT ZERO PROBABILITY OUTCOME.THEREFORE...THE MODEL CHOICE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A 3-WAY BLEND OFTHE 00Z GFS ALONG WITH THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH DAY5...BEFORE SWITCHING TO A PREDOMINANT GEFS MEAN SOLUTION. THISSYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SWATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATEPRECIPITATION...SOME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIESSOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLY/CENTRAL ANDSOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. IFTHE ECMWF VERIFIES...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ANDINFLUENCE AREAS FARTHER NORTH TO POSSIBLY INCLUDE THE MID-ATLANTICREGION AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLYBELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Hmmm, it looks like the block to the north is the biggest factor - not necessarily the short wave itself. This according to some of the ensemble sensitivity products via Stonybrook/CSTAR: Main Page http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/EnSense_Main.html http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/Plots/2013030112/region1/day5/EOF_4fig_NCEP.gif (EOF 1 = 66% of the varience) http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/Plots/2013030112/region1/day5/SEN_1_NCEP_Z500_2.5-5day.gif Oh, and I enjoy people getting their panties in a bunch over the deterministic 06/18Z runs this far out (120+ hours). It's like we're trying to build a house with tinker toys. Stick with the means, EC and GEFS ensembles and go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just took a quick look at the 18z GFS and GEFS, and I am not one of the "its 18z throw it out" people, but at 120 hours out individual runs are going to bounce around a bit. More important to me the GEFS improved from 12z and more then just a little. Precip for the event increased significantly. THat is the 4th consecutive run where the GEFS showed significant improvement. I consider this run a win regardless of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The GFS ensembles have continued to show a range of possibilities, including the bowling-ball OTS. So, it's not surprising the Op shows that solution still. At Day 5, going with a GEFS/Euro ensemble blend is always a pretty good scenario, especially if they agree with each other, as is the case now. That blend gives us a great (but not historic) March snowstorm if verified. I'm pretty good with that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The GFS ensembles have continued to show a range of possibilities, including the bowling-ball OTS. So, it's not surprising the Op shows that solution still. At Day 5, going with a GEFS/Euro ensemble blend is always a pretty good scenario, especially if they agree with each other, as is the case now. That blend gives us a great (but not historic) March snowstorm if verified. I'm pretty good with that right now. I looked through the 18z ens. Better than 12z but plenty of nerve grinding and heartbreak mixed in. Trend is good but we'll obviously suffer through the next 48 hrs. I would like amwx to go into storm mode for something that may actually affect our region even if it busts. We've been out of the game on so many levels for so long.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I looked through the 18z ens. Better than 12z but plenty of nerve grinding and heartbreak mixed in. Trend is good but we'll obviously suffer through the next 48 hrs. I would like amwx to go into storm mode for something that may actually affect our region even if it busts. We've been out of the game on so many levels for so long.... The storm is only 48 hours away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Good point. This is the first step back of the last 4 though. But yes, the gfs without a doubt has been less phase happy than the others. thankfully the 18z ensembles look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z GFS ens man was much better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ambrose's DC Weatherbook Thanks. I see something for my b-day or Christmas list now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Mean total precip trends in the GEFS the last 4 runs for BWI: 0z: 0.2" 6z: 0.46" 12z: 0.71" 18z: 0.94" That's a pretty damn good trend for us. Verbatim, many of the members are rain, but I don't care much about the GEFS members boundary layer temps. Give me a big low off OC with 850s below zero and I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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