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March Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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I love your explanations and the gfs could be right here, but do you want me to say your models are superior to the euro?

What kind of turd response is that?  Where did I even mention the Euro ?  Where did I even reference model skill (and trust me, I look at quantitative verification all of the time, I don't need random opinions about it)?  Also, your notion that "this always happens at 18z" is really just selection bias, not fact/reality (though I do have some suspicions about 06z/18z for the regional models because of the partial cycling that they employ).

 

I have no idea what is right or wrong.  I have no idea what the GFS is going to show at 00z.  I was simply trying to make light of a pretty big change in the model guidance.  If nothing else, this is showing that there is still large uncertainty (despite the previously established "model consensus"). 

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Its not like the models (particularly the GFS) is going to show the exact same solution for the 16 runs or so before Wednesday....so all I take from this is that a strong system is still in play, its the 18z (SE bias) Who cares.

 

it's amazing how people still dismiss the 18z run even though there is no statistical evidence to do so as far as i know. it's like a weather urban myth. bottom line though is we're still way out.. so no one should have been too excited about the earlier runs.

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it's amazing how people still dismiss the 18z run even though there is no statistical evidence to do so as far as i know. it's like a weather urban myth. bottom line though is we're still way out.. so no one should have been too excited about the earlier runs.

IIRC verification scores have the 18z a wee bit lower than the 0/12z runs but I doubt it is anything dramatic.

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it's amazing how people still dismiss the 18z run even though there is no statistical evidence to do so as far as i know. it's like a weather urban myth. bottom line though is we're still way out.. so no one should have been too excited about the earlier runs.

This times about a billion.  If we assimilated no observations into the 18z assimilation, it would show the EXACT same solution as 12z.  That's how it works, we don't start from scratch, we combined a model state with observations.  For 18z, we have a ton of observations, notably satellite-based, surface and aircraft based sensors (domenstic passenger and cargo planes from various vendors).

 

A 120-h forecast from 18z will almost always be better than a 126-h forecast from 12z.

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IIRC verification scores have the 18z a wee bit lower than the 0/12z runs but I doubt it is anything dramatic.

Anecdotal evidence says it has some weird runs from time to time but I think we party have selective memories. I think it more or less shows how timing and small changes make huge difference for us.

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I see the NYC forum pooh-poohing the depiction of the ULL hanging around Maine that long like the 18z GFS has it. But I am reasonably certain around a week ago there were plenty of model runs that showed ULLs just meandering through the great lakes and messing up any potential depicted storms. Which is to say, it seems potentially plausible to me that might not move out quickly enough and mess up this potential storm.

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Anecdotal evidence says it has some weird runs from time to time but I think we party have selective memories. I think it more or less shows how timing and small changes make huge difference for us.

Yup. I was only trying to say that the 6/18z runs aren't as bad as a lot of people try to make them out to be.

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Regardless of the 18z scores and all that, it's the first run of a respectable global showing a southern whiff today. It can definitely be right. No question about that. But the question we should ask ourselves is if the 18z is a front runner and the 0z suite will follow or is it a standard "uh oh" moment that happens before every single decent sized storm at this lead? Even if 0z does go haywire, does that even mean that big solutions earlier today are no longer possible?

Sunday is prob the earliest the general track is locked in and then it's just details. This is kinda par for the course even though it's not well received.

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it's amazing how people still dismiss the 18z run even though there is no statistical evidence to do so as far as i know. it's like a weather urban myth. bottom line though is we're still way out.. so no one should have been too excited about the earlier runs.

Im not saying Im dismissing it, but does this run of the GFS make the storm more or less likely to happen? IMO, No. We all know what can go wrong and that this is not written in stone...but the threat is obviously very much there....thats all we can take at this stage of the game. Therefore, no I do not care that the 18z GFS shows what it does.

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Regardless of the 18z scores and all that, it's the first run of a respectable global showing a southern whiff today. It can definitely be right. No question about that. But the question we should ask ourselves is if the 18z is a front runner and the 0z suite will follow or is it a standard "uh oh" moment that happens before every single decent sized storm at this lead? Even if 0z does go haywire, does that even mean that big solutions earlier today are no longer possible?

Sunday is prob the earliest the general track is locked in and then it's just details. This is kinda par for the course even though it's not well received.

 

well to be honest, the 12z gfs is really the outlier of the last 4 GFS cycles now....so i wouldn't say your assessment holds much water.

 

EDIT: not to mention the 12z GFS ensembles had a good number of misses 

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well to be honest, the 12z gfs is really the outlier of the last 4 GFS cycles now....so i wouldn't say your assessment holds much water.

EDIT: not to mention the 12z GFS ensembles had a good number of misses

Good point. This is the first step back of the last 4 though. But yes, the gfs without a doubt has been less phase happy than the others.

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so when I looked at the panels vs 12Z I saw the bigger difference. Its the handling of the N Atl low. The 18z GFS trended toward retrograding it further, which washed out the GL S/W and delayed the phase. It shows an interesting trend and should not be entirely dismissed, but could lead to a much different evolution than what is currently shown.

This is the difference all along. Last night when the GFS made the big jump, it happened because it scooted that low further east earlier. It's basically right back where it was yesterday at this time.

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We need winwxluvr in here later to tell us which 18z ens #'s show a crushing.

Too early.....but I will. I have been honest all along. If I think it looks bad, I'll say it. What I think doesn't matter, but what I think is that it all hinges on the ull in the natl. If it moves, we'll be ok.

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It's just another scenario...models will do this. Let's not buy too much into it...for now.

Also...I see the worst posters are coming out of the woodwork like clockwork. And the questionable posters are turning bad like clockwork as well :|

Bob Ryan says there is nothing to suggest at this time that a storm will impact us, he expects it to follow the established pattern and go south.

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Bob Ryan says there is nothing to suggest at this time that a storm will impact us, he expects it to follow the established pattern and go south.

Hmm that's a bit ballsy. Is this really the same pattern we have had?

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