Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 good news.. boston might still be ok nope.. looks like the shield gets to them then the storm shifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah its only 400 miles south of the 12Z at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 the missed phase is a complete puzzler to me. pieces seem in play, everything is oriented properly but it just doesn't do it. also, something about hat N Atl energy the way it washes out loosk suspect to me. i wouldnt worry too much except a late phase is probably our number one issue over time when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 You're welcome. I love your explanations and the gfs could be right here, but do you want me to say your models are superior to the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 You're welcome. Make it show a snowstorm at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 As we said...tons to work out. Sit back and chillax. More wild swings en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I love your explanations and the gfs could be right here, but do you want me to say your models are superior to the euro? GFS has done well against the Euro as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Its being super suppresed by the ULL up in Maine/NE Canada... So, the ~50/50 low splits into two, and one lobe circles back SW and then dissipates? Weird. I don't buy it. But then anything's possible. It's the 18z, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS has done well against the Euro as of late. to a degree tho the euro still has to be favored with phasing at least somewhat. not sure i agree with hm that we don't need a phase around here.. i guess it's possible but i'd rather go the phase route which is always problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS has done well against the Euro as of late. True but I've seen the GFS mess with this type of setup before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 to a degree tho the euro still has to be favored with phasing at least somewhat. not sure i agree with hm that we don't need a phase around here.. i guess it's possible but i'd rather go the phase route which is always problematic. No phase might mean weaker low less cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Its being super suppresed by the ULL up in Maine/NE Canada... This is what scares the crap out of me - that northern stream (Nina) has just been a KILLER. Damn seasonal trends. PLEASE bring it back 0Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Been out all day...did see the GFS and EURO and the ensembles. What did the Ukie and Canadian have? Oh and the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS could be completely correct. There is really no reason there has to be a huge storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 If the models dont phase that northern piece of energy which the 12z GFS had and old EURO runs you basically just get a bowling ball crossing the country. On the 18z GFS theres no phasing and the vort slides out to sea, though it tries to phase late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS has done well against the Euro as of late. to a degree tho the euro still has to be favored with phasing at least somewhat. not sure i agree with hm that we don't need a phase around here.. i guess it's possible but i'd rather go the phase route which is always problematic. Should we go with the Met or the weather man? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 so when I looked at the panels vs 12Z I saw the bigger difference. Its the handling of the N Atl low. The 18z GFS trended toward retrograding it further, which washed out the GL S/W and delayed the phase. It shows an interesting trend and should not be entirely dismissed, but could lead to a much different evolution than what is currently shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 No phase might mean weaker low less cold air. if we get bowling balled just right we might be ok without it but the big solutions are all crazy phase bomb/stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I love your explanations and the gfs could be right here, but do you want me to say your models are superior to the euro? What kind of turd response is that? Where did I even mention the Euro ? Where did I even reference model skill (and trust me, I look at quantitative verification all of the time, I don't need random opinions about it)? Also, your notion that "this always happens at 18z" is really just selection bias, not fact/reality (though I do have some suspicions about 06z/18z for the regional models because of the partial cycling that they employ). I have no idea what is right or wrong. I have no idea what the GFS is going to show at 00z. I was simply trying to make light of a pretty big change in the model guidance. If nothing else, this is showing that there is still large uncertainty (despite the previously established "model consensus"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Make it show a snowstorm at 0z. Done. I'll just tweak the ICs and change some model parameters . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Should we go with the Met or the weather man? :-) maybe you should add something so i don't ban you for trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS could be completely correct. There is really no reason there has to be a huge storm... agreed.. it's a pretty reasonable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Its not like the models (particularly the GFS) is going to show the exact same solution for the 16 runs or so before Wednesday....so all I take from this is that a strong system is still in play, its the 18z (SE bias) Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Fact is GFS has destroyed the Euro this year, DT had a great piece last night about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Without a phase youre not gonna have a huge qpf bomb, thats kinda obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Woops I meant vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Its not like the models (particularly the GFS) is going to show the exact same solution for the 16 runs or so before Wednesday....so all I take from this is that a strong system is still in play, its the 18z (SE bias) Who cares. it's amazing how people still dismiss the 18z run even though there is no statistical evidence to do so as far as i know. it's like a weather urban myth. bottom line though is we're still way out.. so no one should have been too excited about the earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Fact is GFS has destroyed the Euro this year, DT had a great piece last night about it Doesn't mean it will be right this time. Sucked on the NEw England Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Woops I meant vice versa you're perhaps a top 10 worst poster in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 it's amazing how people still dismiss the 18z run even though there is no statistical evidence to do so as far as i know. it's like a weather urban myth. bottom line though is we're still way out.. so no one should have been too excited about the earlier runs. IIRC verification scores have the 18z a wee bit lower than the 0/12z runs but I doubt it is anything dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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