Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 comparing the gfs ens vs. the euro ens. from hr. 120 - hr. 132 they are almost identical on track of the low. euro is colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Most of the time the trend is a bit of a creep north at the last minute. Part of that is sometimes not even the storm being north, but that the models often times underdo the northern extent of heavy precip from this range. In reality precip will usually make it to where the confluence cuts it off and often that is a bit north of where models have it this far out. Usually I like to be sitting right on the northern edge of the heavy precip from 3-5 days out. Of course I think the models are still getting a handle on the details of this so until they lock in a bit more...where that northern edge is depends. Either way if you look at the models right now, from south to north it seems to be UKMET, EUro, GGEM, GFS. We seem to be towards the northern half of that guidance but definitely not outside the target zone, I like being in that area. Thank you for the explanation. I appreciate it. Definitely got your gist. Either way, I just want all of us the opportunity to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro: DCA: 1.63 total w/ .60 falling in 6 hours ending 0z thurs. IAD: 1.51 total w/ .59 falling in 6 hours ending 0z thurs. BWI: 1.26 total w/ .43 falling in 6 hours ending 0z thurs 850's never get warmer than -3.0+/- (-2.7 for a period @ bwi) Surface mostly between freezing and 35 (this prob doesn't matter much at this point) This can't be correct. It shows DCA with the most precipitation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 FWIW, the SREF ENS is wayyy north with the H5 cut-off. Good consistancy with it being placed up in S MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 When this gets in the NAM's range, it's going to go ballistic, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 When this gets in the NAM's range, it's going to go ballistic, lol. even the 84 hr NAM on the 18Z run looks ominous to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just a statement about possible future trends north: usually in coastal storm situations like this when the models trend north in the final days, the 50-50 low/block has already reached its westward point and they begin to dismantle/move out at storm time/just before. A lot of famous blizzards happen at the end of a -NAO cycle for a reason in the Mid Atlantic. In this case, the modeling retrogrades and then moves the anticyclone southward right up until the storm date. If this is accurate, there will be NO trend north last minute. Also, the scenario has evolved away from having to rely on a phase for you guys to get the snow. Between these two points, I'm now getting pretty excited for you guys. I'll have more in the days ahead of course but I like that the picture is growing less "phase-reliant" ...simple evolution is better than something like 2/8 for the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 When this gets in the NAM's range, it's going to go ballistic, lol. Yella'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 even the 84 hr NAM on the 18Z run looks ominous to me please don't mitch. just don't. I saw it too and then laughed at myself. Forget it past 36-48. 18z gfs is virtually identical to 12z through 42. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 please don't mitch. just don't. I saw it too and then laughed at myself. Forget it past 36-48. 18z gfs is virtually identical to 12z through 42. heh I think he's saying the NAM looks pretty good at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS looks slower....which I think is gooder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 might be a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Why does 18z always do this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 might be a miss? does it matter 5 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 might be a miss? Looks like it so far. Nrn stream not digging down. Might get GFS'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Why does 18z always do this? i already tossed it.. no worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I hate the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Its being super suppresed by the ULL up in Maine/NE Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 yeah total whiff unless there's a miracle after 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Eh....it's the 18z. Toss it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 yeah total whiff unless there's a miracle after 126 Just extrapolate the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 might be the worst model run of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 good news.. boston might still be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm betting it all on the Euro. The 18z as depicted, would be a serious kick in the you know where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Eh....it's the 18z. Toss it! If we needed another reason to not get too invested in this yet...we don't do snow here very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Weaker vort as well. Gotta love the GOOFUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Would it be correct to say an almost or semi-phase, and a few hours too late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Why does 18z always do this? I hate the GFS You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 the missed phase is a complete puzzler to me. pieces seem in play, everything is oriented properly but it just doesn't do it. also, something about hat N Atl energy the way it washes out loosk suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yikes, the difference between the 15z sref and 18z gfs is astronomical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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