yoda Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Its being super suppresed by the ULL up in Maine/NE Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 yeah total whiff unless there's a miracle after 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Eh....it's the 18z. Toss it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 yeah total whiff unless there's a miracle after 126 Just extrapolate the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 might be the worst model run of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 good news.. boston might still be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm betting it all on the Euro. The 18z as depicted, would be a serious kick in the you know where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Eh....it's the 18z. Toss it! If we needed another reason to not get too invested in this yet...we don't do snow here very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Weaker vort as well. Gotta love the GOOFUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Would it be correct to say an almost or semi-phase, and a few hours too late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Why does 18z always do this? I hate the GFS You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 the missed phase is a complete puzzler to me. pieces seem in play, everything is oriented properly but it just doesn't do it. also, something about hat N Atl energy the way it washes out loosk suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yikes, the difference between the 15z sref and 18z gfs is astronomical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 good news.. boston might still be ok nope.. looks like the shield gets to them then the storm shifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah its only 400 miles south of the 12Z at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 the missed phase is a complete puzzler to me. pieces seem in play, everything is oriented properly but it just doesn't do it. also, something about hat N Atl energy the way it washes out loosk suspect to me. i wouldnt worry too much except a late phase is probably our number one issue over time when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 You're welcome. I love your explanations and the gfs could be right here, but do you want me to say your models are superior to the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 You're welcome. Make it show a snowstorm at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 As we said...tons to work out. Sit back and chillax. More wild swings en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I love your explanations and the gfs could be right here, but do you want me to say your models are superior to the euro? GFS has done well against the Euro as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Its being super suppresed by the ULL up in Maine/NE Canada... So, the ~50/50 low splits into two, and one lobe circles back SW and then dissipates? Weird. I don't buy it. But then anything's possible. It's the 18z, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS has done well against the Euro as of late. to a degree tho the euro still has to be favored with phasing at least somewhat. not sure i agree with hm that we don't need a phase around here.. i guess it's possible but i'd rather go the phase route which is always problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS has done well against the Euro as of late. True but I've seen the GFS mess with this type of setup before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 to a degree tho the euro still has to be favored with phasing at least somewhat. not sure i agree with hm that we don't need a phase around here.. i guess it's possible but i'd rather go the phase route which is always problematic. No phase might mean weaker low less cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Its being super suppresed by the ULL up in Maine/NE Canada... This is what scares the crap out of me - that northern stream (Nina) has just been a KILLER. Damn seasonal trends. PLEASE bring it back 0Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Been out all day...did see the GFS and EURO and the ensembles. What did the Ukie and Canadian have? Oh and the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 If the models dont phase that northern piece of energy which the 12z GFS had and old EURO runs you basically just get a bowling ball crossing the country. On the 18z GFS theres no phasing and the vort slides out to sea, though it tries to phase late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS has done well against the Euro as of late. to a degree tho the euro still has to be favored with phasing at least somewhat. not sure i agree with hm that we don't need a phase around here.. i guess it's possible but i'd rather go the phase route which is always problematic. Should we go with the Met or the weather man? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 so when I looked at the panels vs 12Z I saw the bigger difference. Its the handling of the N Atl low. The 18z GFS trended toward retrograding it further, which washed out the GL S/W and delayed the phase. It shows an interesting trend and should not be entirely dismissed, but could lead to a much different evolution than what is currently shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 No phase might mean weaker low less cold air. if we get bowling balled just right we might be ok without it but the big solutions are all crazy phase bomb/stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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