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March Med/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

thanks, the qpf maps are crazy

 

Yea, it's quite a smackdown on both euro/gfs. And considering the range were in now you have to think that it's becoming a bit likely that someone somewhere is going to get hit pretty good. We're close enough now that some of the things that were wreaking havoc early as the low approached the se seem to be resolved. 

 

A couple more days with a model mob of phased solutions and we'll have to consider that this might be more than porn. 

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

I think it's interesting that there has been so much disagreement between the Euro and the GFS at longer ranges this year, but with the two plains storms and this one (remains to be seen how it plays out) they have shown very good agreement at the day 5 range.  The past storm in the plains had the best agreement I've seen at 3 days.  Different pattern?  Transition to a different season?  Random coincidence?

 

 

You read my mind. Was just going to post that this is damn good model agreement at 5 days out. I think it is very likely at this point that someone in VA is going to get blasted next week. Most likely almost the entire damn state. Amazing.

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SabreAce33

SabreAce33

Posted
Posted

3.3 liquid but it's messy. First 1.5 looks to be all rain. Then 1.1 in 6 hours that seems like it should be snow but it's hard to say when the changeover is. Then another .5 of mixed or all rain. 

Thanks Bob, much appreciated.  I don't expect much this time of year.  And for me to get better it drops everyone else's snow totals.  I'll just pretend some magical cold air from Canada arrives... *tinfoil hat*

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Thanks Bob, much appreciated.  I don't expect much this time of year.  And for me to get better it drops everyone else's snow totals.  I'll just pretend some magical cold air from Canada arrives... *tinfoil hat*

 

I don't have full soundings. Just surface, thickness, and 850's so I'm kinda guessing with your location. Being so close to the lp and coast is tricky w/ 925 temps. 

 

There period of 1.1 precip has -3.3 850's and 1.6 surface. 536 thickness. Probably all snow with those rates but not positive. It's going to change in a couple hours and then a couple more after that. lol

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted

To be fair though, we will probably see it rock back and forth between amped vs less amped until we have better sampling of the energy. Or...it could just lose the storm ;)

Again, what I like to focus on during this point in the medium range is what is the EC mean doing. If the mean of those 50 EC members is zeroing in on a favorable track...like it was last night between the operational EC (which was a left or west member with the track up the western DelMarVa) and the GFS (farther e), then it's game on. Of course I don't focus on intensity, since the means tend to wash that out a bit.

It will be nice to see the ec and ec mean differences continue to narrow. When that happens then it's *really* game on! :)

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Not trying to steal inches away from anyone's jackpot, but do you think the bullseye zone creeps up north to northeast of where it currently sits? 

Most of the time the trend is a bit of a creep north at the last minute.  Part of that is sometimes not even the storm being north, but that the models often times underdo the northern extent of heavy precip from this range.  In reality precip will usually make it to where the confluence cuts it off and often that is a bit north of where models have it this far out.  Usually I like to be sitting right on the northern edge of the heavy precip from 3-5 days out.  Of course I think the models are still getting a handle on the details of this so until they lock in a bit more...where that northern edge is depends.  Either way if you look at the models right now, from south to north it seems to be UKMET, EUro, GGEM, GFS.  We seem to be towards the northern half of that guidance but definitely not outside the target zone, I like being in that area. 

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted

This is getting interesting.  I might fly up to my mom's if it looks like she's going to get at least 2 ft.  It's a stretch at this point, but if we get a well timed phase in a juiced atmosphere, it's a possibility.  I say 10-20% chance of that happening, and if the models keep this up, oh boy...

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Midlo Snow Maker

Midlo Snow Maker

Posted
Posted

Again, what I like to focus on during this point in the medium range is what is the EC mean doing. If the mean of those 50 EC members is zeroing in on a favorable track...like it was last night between the operational EC (which was a left or west member with the track up the western DelMarVa) and the GFS (farther e), then it's game on. Of course I don't focus on intensity, since the means tend to wash that out a bit.

It will be nice to see the ec and ec mean differences continue to narrow. When that happens then it's *really* game on! :)

so far hr 114 ens mean is dead on with the op over wilmington nc. by 126 the mean is a hair east of the op which had  the low tucked up near the eastern shore

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted

so far hr 114 ens mean is dead on with the op over wilmington nc. by 126 the mean is a hair east of the op which had the low tucked up near the eastern shore

Awesome Midlo! Now that's exactly what I'm talking about. I hate to sound like a broken record, but at these stages of the game, verification shows that it's often the EC mean that leads the way. Your post regarding the 12Z EC mean is probably the most revealing piece of guidwnce I've heard so far today :-)

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Midlo Snow Maker

Midlo Snow Maker

Posted
Posted

Awesome Midlo! Now that's exactly what I'm talking about. I hate to sound like a broken record, but at these stages of the game, verification shows that it's often the EC mean that leads the way. Your post regarding the 12Z EC mean is probably the most revealing piece of guidwnce I've heard so far today :-)

thanks, yea at 500mb the mean is pretty close to the op over the va. the ens brings the low up off the coast of va and does the same slow down and drift ESE into the atl.
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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted

Most of the time the trend is a bit of a creep north at the last minute.  Part of that is sometimes not even the storm being north, but that the models often times underdo the northern extent of heavy precip from this range.  In reality precip will usually make it to where the confluence cuts it off and often that is a bit north of where models have it this far out.  Usually I like to be sitting right on the northern edge of the heavy precip from 3-5 days out.  Of course I think the models are still getting a handle on the details of this so until they lock in a bit more...where that northern edge is depends.  Either way if you look at the models right now, from south to north it seems to be UKMET, EUro, GGEM, GFS.  We seem to be towards the northern half of that guidance but definitely not outside the target zone, I like being in that area. 

 

Thank you for the explanation.  I appreciate it.  Definitely got your gist.  Either way, I just want all of us the opportunity to cash in. :)

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SLPressure

SLPressure

Posted
Posted

Euro:

 

DCA: 1.63 total w/ .60 falling in 6 hours ending 0z thurs.

 

IAD: 1.51 total w/ .59 falling in 6 hours ending 0z thurs. 

 

BWI: 1.26 total w/ .43 falling in 6 hours ending 0z thurs

 

850's never get warmer than -3.0+/-  (-2.7 for a period @ bwi)

 

Surface mostly between freezing and 35 (this prob doesn't matter much at this point)

This can't be correct. It shows DCA with the most precipitation! :lmao:

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Just a statement about possible future trends north: usually in coastal storm situations like this when the models trend north in the final days, the 50-50 low/block has already reached its westward point and they begin to dismantle/move out at storm time/just before. A lot of famous blizzards happen at the end of a -NAO cycle for a reason in the Mid Atlantic.

In this case, the modeling retrogrades and then moves the anticyclone southward right up until the storm date. If this is accurate, there will be NO trend north last minute. Also, the scenario has evolved away from having to rely on a phase for you guys to get the snow. Between these two points, I'm now getting pretty excited for you guys. I'll have more in the days ahead of course but I like that the picture is growing less "phase-reliant" ...simple evolution is better than something like 2/8 for the Mid Atlantic.

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