March Med/Long Range Disco

[WxUSAF]

Since we are neighbors, what kind of QPF our we looking at here?

I don't know about the Euro beyond what Ian and others post in this thread.  GFS maps are readily available on Raleigh's site and instantweathermaps.com and NCEP's site (and we're already posted in this thread).  

[Ian]

Since we are neighbors, what kind of QPF our we looking at here?

 

the 1.5" line cuts just north of DC and to the south of Balt so somewhere in that area.

[yoda]

Afternoon LWX AFD should be an interesting read.  It appears that they were disregarding the EC and going with the GFS in their morning disco

[wxmeddler]

the 1.5" line cuts just north of DC and to the south of Balt so somewhere in that area.

It's a sharp cut-off. Westminster to MTN is the 1" line, IAD to BWI is the 1.5" line and HEF to ADW is the 2" line

[NoVaSnow]

Afternoon LWX AFD should be an interesting read.  It appears that they were disregarding the EC and going with the GFS in their morning disco

I think the morning LR was identical to last night's (or even yesterday afternoon's). So today's should be the first new one in 24 hours.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

0.75" line rdu to lyh to canaan valley

1" line just north of rdu to just est of lyh to winchester

1.5" line orf to danville to cho to iad dc bwi

2" line  ches. bay to ric to just east of cho back east through fredricksburg

[Bob Chill]

Euro:

 

DCA: 1.63 total w/ .60 falling in 6 hours ending 0z thurs.

 

IAD: 1.51 total w/ .59 falling in 6 hours ending 0z thurs. 

 

BWI: 1.26 total w/ .43 falling in 6 hours ending 0z thurs

 

850's never get warmer than -3.0+/-  (-2.7 for a period @ bwi)

 

Surface mostly between freezing and 35 (this prob doesn't matter much at this point)

[psuhoffman]

It's a sharp cut-off. Westminster to MTN is the 1" line, IAD to BWI is the 1.5" line and HEF to ADW is the 2" line

yea, I am a little north of the 1" line, but honestly I am fine with that at this range.  Most of the time these things trend a little north towards the end. 

[Bob Chill]

Woah, fredburg @ 2.24 and .73 in 6 hours. All snow. 

[Bob Chill]

For Midlo:

 

RIC: 2.32 total w/ 1.8 falling in 18 consecutive hours. 850's kinda close @ onset but the heavy heavy is snowy snowy

 

[Scraff]

yea, I am a little north of the 1" line, but honestly I am fine with that at this range.  Most of the time these things trend a little north towards the end. 

Not trying to steal inches away from anyone's jackpot, but do you think the bullseye zone creeps up north to northeast of where it currently sits? 

[SabreAce33]

Anybody got SBY?  Expect drowning.

[CoastalWx]

Euro stalls this off the tip of the Delmarva peninsula.  GFS stalls it off the tip of Cape May.  That's pretty decent agreement at Day 5.  CoastalWX said the 500 maps are way different, which I can't see, but if they are very different, it's encouraging that we get a robust solution in either event.  

 

I'm more or less referring to the evolution of this. With the mess from Quebec into the NATL..it will take a while to figure out.

[Bob Chill]

Anybody got SBY?  Expect drowning.

 

3.3 liquid but it's messy. First 1.5 looks to be all rain. Then 1.1 in 6 hours that seems like it should be snow but it's hard to say when the changeover is. Then another .5 of mixed or all rain. 

[North Balti Zen]

The pertinent part of the LWX's new discussion...seems like a good take to me:

 

 

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
NEWD OFF THE EAST COAST LATE SUN AND MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC LOPRES NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIPRES
BUILDING IN FROM THE MS VLY WILL PRODUCE BREEZY NW WINDS THRUOUT THE
WEEKEND. CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THRU
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN LGT UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE WEST-FACING
SIDE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU MON
NGT.

MUCH OF THE FOCUS IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WAS CENTERED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LOPRES SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME LATE-SEASON WINTRY IMPACTS FOR OUR
REGION IS INCREASING AS THE 12Z GFS/GEFS/CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT TO ATTEMPT TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC IMPACTS.
THE STORM IS STILL OUT OVER THE NRN PACIFIC OCEAN...WHERE MODELS DO
NOT INITIALIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AS WELL...THUS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
A FAIR AMOUNT OF RECENT RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. THERE ARE
A GROWING NUMBER OF OPERATIONS MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS THAT PHASE
THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO
TAKE A MORE NWD TURN NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SLOW DOWN. POPS
WERE INCREASED FROM LATE TUE THRU ERY THU...BUT STILL REMAIN IN
CHANCE CAT. THE TIMING OF AND DEGREE OF PHASING WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS WELL AS PRECIP AMOUNTS
AND PTYPE /I.E. SNOW VS RAIN/.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

 

[Midlo Snow Maker]

For Midlo:

 

RIC: 2.32 total w/ 1.8 falling in 18 consecutive hours. 850's kinda close @ onset but the heavy heavy is snowy snowy

 

shocker.JPG

thanks, the qpf maps are crazy

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think it's interesting that there has been so much disagreement between the Euro and the GFS at longer ranges this year, but with the two plains storms and this one (remains to be seen how it plays out) they have shown very good agreement at the day 5 range.  The past storm in the plains had the best agreement I've seen at 3 days.  Different pattern?  Transition to a different season?  Random coincidence?

[Bob Chill]

thanks, the qpf maps are crazy

 

Yea, it's quite a smackdown on both euro/gfs. And considering the range were in now you have to think that it's becoming a bit likely that someone somewhere is going to get hit pretty good. We're close enough now that some of the things that were wreaking havoc early as the low approached the se seem to be resolved. 

 

A couple more days with a model mob of phased solutions and we'll have to consider that this might be more than porn. 

[clskinsfan]

I think it's interesting that there has been so much disagreement between the Euro and the GFS at longer ranges this year, but with the two plains storms and this one (remains to be seen how it plays out) they have shown very good agreement at the day 5 range.  The past storm in the plains had the best agreement I've seen at 3 days.  Different pattern?  Transition to a different season?  Random coincidence?

 

 

You read my mind. Was just going to post that this is damn good model agreement at 5 days out. I think it is very likely at this point that someone in VA is going to get blasted next week. Most likely almost the entire damn state. Amazing.

[SabreAce33]

3.3 liquid but it's messy. First 1.5 looks to be all rain. Then 1.1 in 6 hours that seems like it should be snow but it's hard to say when the changeover is. Then another .5 of mixed or all rain. 

Thanks Bob, much appreciated.  I don't expect much this time of year.  And for me to get better it drops everyone else's snow totals.  I'll just pretend some magical cold air from Canada arrives... *tinfoil hat*

[Bob Chill]

Thanks Bob, much appreciated.  I don't expect much this time of year.  And for me to get better it drops everyone else's snow totals.  I'll just pretend some magical cold air from Canada arrives... *tinfoil hat*

 

I don't have full soundings. Just surface, thickness, and 850's so I'm kinda guessing with your location. Being so close to the lp and coast is tricky w/ 925 temps. 

 

There period of 1.1 precip has -3.3 850's and 1.6 surface. 536 thickness. Probably all snow with those rates but not positive. It's going to change in a couple hours and then a couple more after that. lol

[WxMan1]

To be fair though, we will probably see it rock back and forth between amped vs less amped until we have better sampling of the energy. Or...it could just lose the storm

Again, what I like to focus on during this point in the medium range is what is the EC mean doing. If the mean of those 50 EC members is zeroing in on a favorable track...like it was last night between the operational EC (which was a left or west member with the track up the western DelMarVa) and the GFS (farther e), then it's game on. Of course I don't focus on intensity, since the means tend to wash that out a bit.

It will be nice to see the ec and ec mean differences continue to narrow. When that happens then it's *really* game on!

[clskinsfan]

The GGEM is 36 hours of snow out here. If it happens like this The NW burbs are burried.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[psuhoffman]

Not trying to steal inches away from anyone's jackpot, but do you think the bullseye zone creeps up north to northeast of where it currently sits? 

Most of the time the trend is a bit of a creep north at the last minute.  Part of that is sometimes not even the storm being north, but that the models often times underdo the northern extent of heavy precip from this range.  In reality precip will usually make it to where the confluence cuts it off and often that is a bit north of where models have it this far out.  Usually I like to be sitting right on the northern edge of the heavy precip from 3-5 days out.  Of course I think the models are still getting a handle on the details of this so until they lock in a bit more...where that northern edge is depends.  Either way if you look at the models right now, from south to north it seems to be UKMET, EUro, GGEM, GFS.  We seem to be towards the northern half of that guidance but definitely not outside the target zone, I like being in that area. 

[Terpeast]

This is getting interesting.  I might fly up to my mom's if it looks like she's going to get at least 2 ft.  It's a stretch at this point, but if we get a well timed phase in a juiced atmosphere, it's a possibility.  I say 10-20% chance of that happening, and if the models keep this up, oh boy...

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Again, what I like to focus on during this point in the medium range is what is the EC mean doing. If the mean of those 50 EC members is zeroing in on a favorable track...like it was last night between the operational EC (which was a left or west member with the track up the western DelMarVa) and the GFS (farther e), then it's game on. Of course I don't focus on intensity, since the means tend to wash that out a bit.

It will be nice to see the ec and ec mean differences continue to narrow. When that happens then it's *really* game on!

so far hr 114 ens mean is dead on with the op over wilmington nc. by 126 the mean is a hair east of the op which had  the low tucked up near the eastern shore

[wxmeddler]

I'll just put this here...

 

History:

 

VS. Last nights Euro

 

[Midlo Snow Maker]

ens mean precip

dc bwi iad cho roa lyh 0.50" - 0.75"

0.75"- 1" RIC RDU EZF

[WxMan1]

so far hr 114 ens mean is dead on with the op over wilmington nc. by 126 the mean is a hair east of the op which had the low tucked up near the eastern shore

Awesome Midlo! Now that's exactly what I'm talking about. I hate to sound like a broken record, but at these stages of the game, verification shows that it's often the EC mean that leads the way. Your post regarding the 12Z EC mean is probably the most revealing piece of guidwnce I've heard so far today :-)

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Awesome Midlo! Now that's exactly what I'm talking about. I hate to sound like a broken record, but at these stages of the game, verification shows that it's often the EC mean that leads the way. Your post regarding the 12Z EC mean is probably the most revealing piece of guidwnce I've heard so far today :-)

thanks, yea at 500mb the mean is pretty close to the op over the va. the ens brings the low up off the coast of va and does the same slow down and drift ESE into the atl.