March Med/Long Range Disco

[Ji]

JMA isnt that great...it looks like a late phase which gives us decent snow but much better for the Northern MA and New England:(

[Ian]

one concern with the euro is it looked more like teh 12z GFS last night. it was less amped at 12z but we just managed to find the sweet spot. have to see if that trend continues.

[MN Transplant]

JMA isnt that great...it looks like a late phase which gives us decent snow but much better for the Northern MA and New England:(

 

Tracks 500 right over us.  Not what we want for this storm.

 

/JMA talk is serious business

[Kmlwx]

one concern with the euro is it looked more like teh 12z GFS last night. it was less amped at 12z but we just managed to find the sweet spot. have to see if that trend continues.

 

To be fair though, we will probably see it rock back and forth between amped vs less amped until we have better sampling of the energy. Or...it could just lose the storm  

[yoda]

WunderMap has it through 120hrs now.

 

Do you have the link to that again?

[NOVAForecaster]

12Z Euro Deterministic QPF map shared by Henry Margusity on Twitter.

[Disc]

I'm kinda Meh after the mid day for my CWA--

 

Points SE, E and NE look good, Even due north. We get scrapped on the first round, and then it blows up JUST too late to really blast us. Farmville to CHO get 1-2 feet, 60 miles north and east-- We get 1-3 round 1, a lull and then another 2-4. Not bad, but kinda meh. I will sting if the heavy stuff is that close. 

 

We know banding tends to be further west than modeled, usually- but I've never gotten a band push WEST to me, but more from the south modeled stuff.

 

Not that this is a lock at all-- I'd rather see it cranking up near ILM seems to be the sweet spot for the ROA to LYH corridor. 

 

It doesn't give us much back towards ROA. Definitely a DC/RIC special.

[Huffwx]

It doesn't give us much back towards ROA. Definitely a DC/RIC special.

 

 

Yeah, you guys get a little on the front side and flurries on the backside. We get a nice band later when it cranks up. I've seen this happen, but it's rare. I still think we need ILM for the phase spot vs HAT. It's like every 5 miles outside of LYH your adding an inch of snow till Farmville and Charlottesville. 

 

Like I said, I'm kinda Meh.

[Ian]

To be fair though, we will probably see it rock back and forth between amped vs less amped until we have better sampling of the energy. Or...it could just lose the storm

 

for sure. not sure there are any real "trends" apparent.. still seems mostly to be bouncing around with a big snow somewhere. but it was a fairly decent change from 0z so you can't totally ignore it. you de-amp and slow the phase a bit more and it's a problem. this run is about our ceiling give or take the actual bulseye.

[WxUSAF]

Euro stalls this off the tip of the Delmarva peninsula.  GFS stalls it off the tip of Cape May.  That's pretty decent agreement at Day 5.  CoastalWX said the 500 maps are way different, which I can't see, but if they are very different, it's encouraging that we get a robust solution in either event.  

[Kmlwx]

for sure. not sure there are any real "trends" apparent.. still seems mostly to be bouncing around with a big snow somewhere. but it was a fairly decent change from 0z so you can't totally ignore it. you de-amp and slow the phase a bit more and it's a problem. this run is about our ceiling give or take the actual bulseye.

Re the whole trends things - I definitely think it's something to note. Slightly OT but the times when I get frustrated is when folks start trying to predict one model output based on another models output. We are forecasting weather not models lol. 

I guess the main takeaway at this point is that the models are still seemingly on board with a pretty massive storm someplace. We could very well still miss out as others have stated. I feel like from the point we are at now it's only going to be more conservative in the end...can't get much better than a huge march snow like what is being shown. 

[Kmlwx]

Euro stalls this off the tip of the Delmarva peninsula.  GFS stalls it off the tip of Cape May.  That's pretty decent agreement at Day 5.  CoastalWX said the 500 maps are way different, which I can't see, but if they are very different, it's encouraging that we get a robust solution in either event.  

 

Indeed. That's something I was thinking about as the Euro news came in. So we can afford some swing and still get snow - that's always a good thing to see. I hate threading a needle through a hole the size of a nanometer. 

[Scraff]

Euro stalls this off the tip of the Delmarva peninsula.  GFS stalls it off the tip of Cape May.  That's pretty decent agreement at Day 5.  CoastalWX said the 500 maps are way different, which I can't see, but if they are very different, it's encouraging that we get a robust solution in either event.  

 

Since we are neighbors, what kind of QPF our we looking at here?

[WxUSAF]

Since we are neighbors, what kind of QPF our we looking at here?

I don't know about the Euro beyond what Ian and others post in this thread.  GFS maps are readily available on Raleigh's site and instantweathermaps.com and NCEP's site (and we're already posted in this thread).  

[Ian]

Since we are neighbors, what kind of QPF our we looking at here?

 

the 1.5" line cuts just north of DC and to the south of Balt so somewhere in that area.

[yoda]

Afternoon LWX AFD should be an interesting read.  It appears that they were disregarding the EC and going with the GFS in their morning disco

[wxmeddler]

the 1.5" line cuts just north of DC and to the south of Balt so somewhere in that area.

It's a sharp cut-off. Westminster to MTN is the 1" line, IAD to BWI is the 1.5" line and HEF to ADW is the 2" line

[NoVaSnow]

Afternoon LWX AFD should be an interesting read.  It appears that they were disregarding the EC and going with the GFS in their morning disco

I think the morning LR was identical to last night's (or even yesterday afternoon's). So today's should be the first new one in 24 hours.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

0.75" line rdu to lyh to canaan valley

1" line just north of rdu to just est of lyh to winchester

1.5" line orf to danville to cho to iad dc bwi

2" line  ches. bay to ric to just east of cho back east through fredricksburg

[Bob Chill]

Euro:

 

DCA: 1.63 total w/ .60 falling in 6 hours ending 0z thurs.

 

IAD: 1.51 total w/ .59 falling in 6 hours ending 0z thurs. 

 

BWI: 1.26 total w/ .43 falling in 6 hours ending 0z thurs

 

850's never get warmer than -3.0+/-  (-2.7 for a period @ bwi)

 

Surface mostly between freezing and 35 (this prob doesn't matter much at this point)

[psuhoffman]

It's a sharp cut-off. Westminster to MTN is the 1" line, IAD to BWI is the 1.5" line and HEF to ADW is the 2" line

yea, I am a little north of the 1" line, but honestly I am fine with that at this range.  Most of the time these things trend a little north towards the end. 

[Bob Chill]

Woah, fredburg @ 2.24 and .73 in 6 hours. All snow. 

[Bob Chill]

For Midlo:

 

RIC: 2.32 total w/ 1.8 falling in 18 consecutive hours. 850's kinda close @ onset but the heavy heavy is snowy snowy

 

[Scraff]

yea, I am a little north of the 1" line, but honestly I am fine with that at this range.  Most of the time these things trend a little north towards the end. 

Not trying to steal inches away from anyone's jackpot, but do you think the bullseye zone creeps up north to northeast of where it currently sits? 

[SabreAce33]

Anybody got SBY?  Expect drowning.

[CoastalWx]

Euro stalls this off the tip of the Delmarva peninsula.  GFS stalls it off the tip of Cape May.  That's pretty decent agreement at Day 5.  CoastalWX said the 500 maps are way different, which I can't see, but if they are very different, it's encouraging that we get a robust solution in either event.  

 

I'm more or less referring to the evolution of this. With the mess from Quebec into the NATL..it will take a while to figure out.

[Bob Chill]

Anybody got SBY?  Expect drowning.

 

3.3 liquid but it's messy. First 1.5 looks to be all rain. Then 1.1 in 6 hours that seems like it should be snow but it's hard to say when the changeover is. Then another .5 of mixed or all rain. 

[North Balti Zen]

The pertinent part of the LWX's new discussion...seems like a good take to me:

 

 

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
NEWD OFF THE EAST COAST LATE SUN AND MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC LOPRES NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIPRES
BUILDING IN FROM THE MS VLY WILL PRODUCE BREEZY NW WINDS THRUOUT THE
WEEKEND. CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPS 5-10F BELOW NORMAL THRU
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN LGT UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE WEST-FACING
SIDE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU MON
NGT.

MUCH OF THE FOCUS IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WAS CENTERED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LOPRES SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME LATE-SEASON WINTRY IMPACTS FOR OUR
REGION IS INCREASING AS THE 12Z GFS/GEFS/CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT TO ATTEMPT TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC IMPACTS.
THE STORM IS STILL OUT OVER THE NRN PACIFIC OCEAN...WHERE MODELS DO
NOT INITIALIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AS WELL...THUS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
A FAIR AMOUNT OF RECENT RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. THERE ARE
A GROWING NUMBER OF OPERATIONS MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS THAT PHASE
THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO
TAKE A MORE NWD TURN NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SLOW DOWN. POPS
WERE INCREASED FROM LATE TUE THRU ERY THU...BUT STILL REMAIN IN
CHANCE CAT. THE TIMING OF AND DEGREE OF PHASING WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS WELL AS PRECIP AMOUNTS
AND PTYPE /I.E. SNOW VS RAIN/.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

 

[Midlo Snow Maker]

For Midlo:

 

RIC: 2.32 total w/ 1.8 falling in 18 consecutive hours. 850's kinda close @ onset but the heavy heavy is snowy snowy

 

shocker.JPG

thanks, the qpf maps are crazy

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think it's interesting that there has been so much disagreement between the Euro and the GFS at longer ranges this year, but with the two plains storms and this one (remains to be seen how it plays out) they have shown very good agreement at the day 5 range.  The past storm in the plains had the best agreement I've seen at 3 days.  Different pattern?  Transition to a different season?  Random coincidence?