March Med/Long Range Disco

[packfan98]

very little except western nc.. looks like a NOVA special so far.

Much appreciated!  Good luck folks!

[Amped]

Wow starting to look like an epic paste job. Could easily bring me a normal year.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

ric dc crushed 2"+ qpf

[Inudaw]

Well Richmond got Euro bull's eyed.    This can only mean bad things! 

[Ji]

Potomac and SW 8-12 with 12-18 just southwest of that. 24"+ bullseye between CHO and RIC.. n md 4-8"

actually a great position to be in 5 days out. Richmond and bullseye on HECS always work out

[wxmeddler]

You know its a good one when 500mb heights are sub 540dm and you have a 1004mb right under max difluence. KA-BOOM!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Potomac and SW 8-12 with 12-18 just southwest of that. 24"+ bullseye between CHO and RIC.. n md 4-8"

What a crush job the Euro is for the DCA area.  Would be an awesome solution to see verify.

[Ian]

Euro and GFS are worlds apart from DC northeast.

[kurtstack]

actually a great position to be in 5 days out. Richmond and bullseye on HECS always work out

Absolutely.  Even at 5-1 ratios we'd have 10 inches of snow verbatim this run. 

[Fozz]

Post March 5th events at IAD >6"

 

3/9/76 - 6.4"

3/13-14/93 - 14.1"

3/9/99 - 8.9"

 

Actually thought the list might be longer. 

 

It's kinda hard with nothing pre-1963. Try BWI.

[CoastalWx]

Euro and GFS are worlds apart from DC northeast.

 

The differences at H5 are huge.

[SabreAce33]

Anyone got a decent map of the Euro or are all the decent ones behind a pay wall now?  Got a couple that go from 120 hr to 144, but no granularity.

[wxmeddler]

Anyone got a decent map of the Euro or are all the decent ones behind a pay wall now?  Got a couple that go from 120 hr to 144, but no granularity.

WunderMap has it through 120hrs now.

[needbiggerboat]

MBY feels like a good spot based on today's model runs.  Seem like a very sensitive set up in terms of the phasing, but hard to see the blockiness allowing a huge shift north....but I'm sure the whack a mole model solutions will continue over the next 4 days.

[psuhoffman]

Potomac and SW 8-12 with 12-18 just southwest of that. 24"+ bullseye between CHO and RIC.. n md 4-8"

that seems a bit low for northern MD.  I am looking at text output for Westminster Airport (actually a few miles north of town) and its showing exactly 1" liquid. 

[SabreAce33]

WunderMap has it through 120hrs now.

Ah, yes, forgot about that!  Thank you!

[Huffwx]

I'm kinda Meh after the mid day for my CWA--

 

Points SE, E and NE look good, Even due north. We get scrapped on the first round, and then it blows up JUST too late to really blast us. Farmville to CHO get 1-2 feet, 60 miles north and east-- We get 1-3 round 1, a lull and then another 2-4. Not bad, but kinda meh. I will sting if the heavy stuff is that close. 

 

We know banding tends to be further west than modeled, usually- but I've never gotten a band push WEST to me, but more from the south modeled stuff.

 

Not that this is a lock at all-- I'd rather see it cranking up near ILM seems to be the sweet spot for the ROA to LYH corridor. 

[Ji]

JMA isnt that great...it looks like a late phase which gives us decent snow but much better for the Northern MA and New England:(

[Ian]

one concern with the euro is it looked more like teh 12z GFS last night. it was less amped at 12z but we just managed to find the sweet spot. have to see if that trend continues.

[MN Transplant]

JMA isnt that great...it looks like a late phase which gives us decent snow but much better for the Northern MA and New England:(

 

Tracks 500 right over us.  Not what we want for this storm.

 

/JMA talk is serious business

[Kmlwx]

one concern with the euro is it looked more like teh 12z GFS last night. it was less amped at 12z but we just managed to find the sweet spot. have to see if that trend continues.

 

To be fair though, we will probably see it rock back and forth between amped vs less amped until we have better sampling of the energy. Or...it could just lose the storm  

[yoda]

WunderMap has it through 120hrs now.

 

Do you have the link to that again?

[NOVAForecaster]

12Z Euro Deterministic QPF map shared by Henry Margusity on Twitter.

[Disc]

I'm kinda Meh after the mid day for my CWA--

 

Points SE, E and NE look good, Even due north. We get scrapped on the first round, and then it blows up JUST too late to really blast us. Farmville to CHO get 1-2 feet, 60 miles north and east-- We get 1-3 round 1, a lull and then another 2-4. Not bad, but kinda meh. I will sting if the heavy stuff is that close. 

 

We know banding tends to be further west than modeled, usually- but I've never gotten a band push WEST to me, but more from the south modeled stuff.

 

Not that this is a lock at all-- I'd rather see it cranking up near ILM seems to be the sweet spot for the ROA to LYH corridor. 

 

It doesn't give us much back towards ROA. Definitely a DC/RIC special.

[Huffwx]

It doesn't give us much back towards ROA. Definitely a DC/RIC special.

 

 

Yeah, you guys get a little on the front side and flurries on the backside. We get a nice band later when it cranks up. I've seen this happen, but it's rare. I still think we need ILM for the phase spot vs HAT. It's like every 5 miles outside of LYH your adding an inch of snow till Farmville and Charlottesville. 

 

Like I said, I'm kinda Meh.

[Ian]

To be fair though, we will probably see it rock back and forth between amped vs less amped until we have better sampling of the energy. Or...it could just lose the storm

 

for sure. not sure there are any real "trends" apparent.. still seems mostly to be bouncing around with a big snow somewhere. but it was a fairly decent change from 0z so you can't totally ignore it. you de-amp and slow the phase a bit more and it's a problem. this run is about our ceiling give or take the actual bulseye.

[WxUSAF]

Euro stalls this off the tip of the Delmarva peninsula.  GFS stalls it off the tip of Cape May.  That's pretty decent agreement at Day 5.  CoastalWX said the 500 maps are way different, which I can't see, but if they are very different, it's encouraging that we get a robust solution in either event.  

[Kmlwx]

for sure. not sure there are any real "trends" apparent.. still seems mostly to be bouncing around with a big snow somewhere. but it was a fairly decent change from 0z so you can't totally ignore it. you de-amp and slow the phase a bit more and it's a problem. this run is about our ceiling give or take the actual bulseye.

Re the whole trends things - I definitely think it's something to note. Slightly OT but the times when I get frustrated is when folks start trying to predict one model output based on another models output. We are forecasting weather not models lol. 

I guess the main takeaway at this point is that the models are still seemingly on board with a pretty massive storm someplace. We could very well still miss out as others have stated. I feel like from the point we are at now it's only going to be more conservative in the end...can't get much better than a huge march snow like what is being shown. 

[Kmlwx]

Euro stalls this off the tip of the Delmarva peninsula.  GFS stalls it off the tip of Cape May.  That's pretty decent agreement at Day 5.  CoastalWX said the 500 maps are way different, which I can't see, but if they are very different, it's encouraging that we get a robust solution in either event.  

 

Indeed. That's something I was thinking about as the Euro news came in. So we can afford some swing and still get snow - that's always a good thing to see. I hate threading a needle through a hole the size of a nanometer. 

[Scraff]

Euro stalls this off the tip of the Delmarva peninsula.  GFS stalls it off the tip of Cape May.  That's pretty decent agreement at Day 5.  CoastalWX said the 500 maps are way different, which I can't see, but if they are very different, it's encouraging that we get a robust solution in either event.  

 

Since we are neighbors, what kind of QPF our we looking at here?