vinylfreak89 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 2-3 of the GEFS members are like the Op with a big stalled storm. Most of the rest do give us some precip. 1 looks like a late phase like Hoffman is worried about, although we still get precip from it. 1-2 are bowling-balls off the SE coast and 1 doesn't have any storm at all. what is the handling of the N Atl low and block like on the 3 members that are bowling balls or no storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GEM (CMC) snow map shows 12" around DC and increases as you move W and NW. Looks like 24" easy in the Winchester/Martinsburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 what is the handling of the N Atl low and block like on the 3 members that are bowling balls or no storm? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGT_12z/ensloopmref.html Basically, the block breaks down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Dr Postel on the Weather Channel just called the UKMET the outlier to this point. Consensus is towards GEM, GFS, EURO. Spoke about "possible" major impacts DC to NY. Too early for rain/snow lines, etc. As much as I laugh at the WC sometimes, they have done a nice job in explaining model runs. Though....they can't touch the brains in this forum! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Bernie Rayno is a great met on AccuWeather. You guys should check out his latest video on the storm. No hype--just truth. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-vide...ion/91358901001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Bernie Rayno is a great met on AccuWeather. You guys should check out his latest video on the storm. No hype--just truth. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-vide...ion/91358901001 I mentioned that on Facebook. It seems that certain individual AccuWx forecasters are quite balanced. Bernie does a good job of explaining the situation and that the models could certainly flip flop some more. Simply says the odds are up from before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 euro is a little faster thru 102.. not sure that means much tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 500 not quite as amped by 114 tho just getting going.. low forming off SE NC coast.some snow has already fallen mainly SW of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 euro is a little faster thru 102.. not sure that means much tho hmm could mean a later phase, :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think 1 is a possibility, but I think 2 and 3 are low. I think a more likely possibility is no phase at all and it just bowling-balls OTS after giving Columbia (South Carolina) some flurries. yea I would put that into option 1, just the ubber 1 solution. I think we agree on the biggest threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 phase getting going at 120... 1004mb low off hatteras.most of area seeing snow.. biggest so far to SW of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 126 right at the mouth of the bay.. dumping snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 phase getting going at 120... 1004mb low off hatteras.most of area seeing snow.. biggest so far to SW of dc What's the track of the 500 low after hour 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 126 right at the mouth of the bay.. dumping snow the problem with this is the number 126. Thats is a ridiculous amount of hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 126 right at the mouth of the bay.. dumping snow Oh yeah. Full phase I'm guessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well, nobody is running the PBP in the SE forum. Ian do you mind telling us if there is any snow down towards NC? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 the problem with this is the number 126. Thats is a ridiculous amount of hours away You're never happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 this is a huge run. sittnig there at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 HOLY EURO nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm taking everything with a giant grain of salt here. Been through many of these late in the year that dump snow to the West and result in nothing but cold rain here in SBY. Keeping my fingers crossed for you guys though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well, nobody is running the PBP in the SE forum. Ian do you mind telling us if there is any snow down towards NC? Thanks! very little except western nc.. looks like a NOVA special so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 You're never happy Im happy...just impatient. 126 is an entirety. Once we are in the NAM range...ill feel less angst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Damn, when Scott makes a trip south, it must be a damn good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 138 starting to shift east.. 1"+ liquid for pretty much everyone.. 1.5"+ DC and south.. RIC area looks like poss bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 very little except western nc.. looks like a NOVA special so far. So if you said it was at the mouth of the chessy, do we have BL issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 138 starting to shift east.. 1"+ liquid for pretty much everyone.. 1.5"+ DC and south.. RIC area looks like poss bullseye perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 138 starting to shift east.. 1"+ liquid for pretty much everyone.. 1.5"+ DC and south.. RIC area looks like poss bullseye Temp profiles? Mixing issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 So if you said it was at the mouth of the chessy, do we have BL issues? he said dumping snow so I would guess not for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Potomac and SW 8-12 with 12-18 just southwest of that. 24"+ bullseye between CHO and RIC.. n md 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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