Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I wonder if Accu realizes Ash Wednesday gave DC 4" of snow. I mean that would be awesome and I know it hammered higher elevation but their press release calls for a potential major blizzard in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Like Ji said, the 500mb on these model runs is absolute porn. The best part for you guys is the way it phases warm air would be sent into NE while Philly to DC gets clocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 A great conversation would be to discuss what could go wrong at this point and not simply to be Debbie Downers. My assumption is the GGEM's solution is based on an earlier phase from the GFS run. Right? I think the general evolution of the system is understood by the guidance at this point. The 3 possible "screw jobs" we could get would be 1. A late phase solution where it all comes together 6 hours too late for us and we watch NJ northeast get nailed (my biggest fear) 2. The trend of an earlier phase continues and actually ends up cutting this inland (unlikely IMHO right now given the setup) 3. The whole trough ends up further north then guidance and the storm simply tracks too far north for us (second biggest concern) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 A great conversation would be to discuss what could go wrong at this point and not simply to be Debbie Downers. My assumption is the GGEM's solution is based on an earlier phase from the GFS run. Right? It's a pretty long conversation to be honest. Late phase would be very dicey. Too early could be a disaster. Further east track..ouch.. There's plenty to go wrong. As the suites come out it's probably best to just focus on the vort track, trough axis, and piece of energy over the gl's. One big thing in our favor is the block and slow movement. Opens the door to have a better window of "some" snow through the evolution. My benchmark is still the 2" thing but nothing wrong with glazing over eye candy as it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Like Ji said, the 500mb on these model runs is absolute porn. The best part for you guys is the way it phases warm air would be sent into NE while Philly to DC gets clocked. a lot of the 'epic' mid atlantic storms screw ny and new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I wonder if Accu realizes Ash Wednesday gave DC 4" of snow. I mean that would be awesome and I know it hammered higher elevation but their press release calls for a potential major blizzard in the cities. no two storms are exactly alike, 2-3 degrees difference and 50 miles east and that would have been 10" plus in the cities. Besides Accuhype wants viewers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think the general evolution of the system is understood by the guidance at this point. The 3 possible "screw jobs" we could get would be 1. A late phase solution where it all comes together 6 hours too late for us and we watch NJ northeast get nailed (my biggest fear) 2. The trend of an earlier phase continues and actually ends up cutting this inland (unlikely IMHO right now given the setup) 3. The whole trough ends up further north then guidance and the storm simply tracks too far north for us (second biggest concern) I think 1 is a possibility, but I think 2 and 3 are low. I think a more likely possibility is no phase at all and it just bowling-balls OTS after giving Columbia (South Carolina) some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 NAVGEM since were mentioning all the models today! (I'll save the JMA for Ji!!! ) has slowly shifted south over the passed few runs. Looks pretty similar to the 12z UKMET.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 NAVGEM is fine. Doesn't wrap up as much, so the precip is lighter, but we are still in the good quadrant which is all you can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think the general evolution of the system is understood by the guidance at this point. The 3 possible "screw jobs" we could get would be 1. A late phase solution where it all comes together 6 hours too late for us and we watch NJ northeast get nailed (my biggest fear) 2. The trend of an earlier phase continues and actually ends up cutting this inland (unlikely IMHO right now given the setup) 3. The whole trough ends up further north then guidance and the storm simply tracks too far north for us (second biggest concern) I want this storm like everyone else but it's hard to not to be worried by #1 or #3 just like you. That northern stream has not played nice. The seasonal trends last year and this year don't support this solution. Hopefully, we can finally buck them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think 1 is a possibility, but I think 2 and 3 are low. I think a more likely possibility is no phase at all and it just bowling-balls OTS after giving Columbia (South Carolina) some flurries. Are there any models that do this though? Based on the data I've seen, nearly everything has trended toward a partial phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Are there any models that do this though? Based on the data I've seen, nearly everything has trended toward a partial phase. 2-3 of the GEFS members are like the Op with a big stalled storm. Most of the rest do give us some precip. 1 looks like a late phase like Hoffman is worried about, although we still get precip from it. 1-2 are bowling-balls off the SE coast and 1 doesn't have any storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 late phase should be a concern no matter what around here.. probably until the precip is over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 2-3 of the GEFS members are like the Op with a big stalled storm. Most of the rest do give us some precip. 1 looks like a late phase like Hoffman is worried about, although we still get precip from it. 1-2 are bowling-balls off the SE coast and 1 doesn't have any storm at all. what is the handling of the N Atl low and block like on the 3 members that are bowling balls or no storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GEM (CMC) snow map shows 12" around DC and increases as you move W and NW. Looks like 24" easy in the Winchester/Martinsburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 what is the handling of the N Atl low and block like on the 3 members that are bowling balls or no storm? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGT_12z/ensloopmref.html Basically, the block breaks down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Dr Postel on the Weather Channel just called the UKMET the outlier to this point. Consensus is towards GEM, GFS, EURO. Spoke about "possible" major impacts DC to NY. Too early for rain/snow lines, etc. As much as I laugh at the WC sometimes, they have done a nice job in explaining model runs. Though....they can't touch the brains in this forum! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Bernie Rayno is a great met on AccuWeather. You guys should check out his latest video on the storm. No hype--just truth. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-vide...ion/91358901001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Bernie Rayno is a great met on AccuWeather. You guys should check out his latest video on the storm. No hype--just truth. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-vide...ion/91358901001 I mentioned that on Facebook. It seems that certain individual AccuWx forecasters are quite balanced. Bernie does a good job of explaining the situation and that the models could certainly flip flop some more. Simply says the odds are up from before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 euro is a little faster thru 102.. not sure that means much tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 500 not quite as amped by 114 tho just getting going.. low forming off SE NC coast.some snow has already fallen mainly SW of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 euro is a little faster thru 102.. not sure that means much tho hmm could mean a later phase, :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think 1 is a possibility, but I think 2 and 3 are low. I think a more likely possibility is no phase at all and it just bowling-balls OTS after giving Columbia (South Carolina) some flurries. yea I would put that into option 1, just the ubber 1 solution. I think we agree on the biggest threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 phase getting going at 120... 1004mb low off hatteras.most of area seeing snow.. biggest so far to SW of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 126 right at the mouth of the bay.. dumping snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 phase getting going at 120... 1004mb low off hatteras.most of area seeing snow.. biggest so far to SW of dc What's the track of the 500 low after hour 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 126 right at the mouth of the bay.. dumping snow the problem with this is the number 126. Thats is a ridiculous amount of hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 126 right at the mouth of the bay.. dumping snow Oh yeah. Full phase I'm guessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well, nobody is running the PBP in the SE forum. Ian do you mind telling us if there is any snow down towards NC? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 the problem with this is the number 126. Thats is a ridiculous amount of hours away You're never happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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