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March Med/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I wonder if Accu realizes Ash Wednesday gave DC 4" of snow. I mean that would be awesome and I know it hammered higher elevation but their press release calls for a potential major blizzard in the cities.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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  On 3/1/2013 at 5:37 PM, Quasievil said:

A great conversation would be to discuss what could go wrong at this point and not simply to be Debbie Downers. My assumption is the GGEM's solution is based on an earlier phase from the GFS run. Right?

I think the general evolution of the system is understood by the guidance at this point.  The 3 possible "screw jobs" we could get would be

1.  A late phase solution where it all comes together 6 hours too late for us and we watch NJ northeast get nailed (my biggest fear)

2.  The trend of an earlier phase continues and actually ends up cutting this inland (unlikely IMHO right now given the setup)

3.  The whole trough ends up further north then guidance and the storm simply tracks too far north for us (second biggest concern)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
  On 3/1/2013 at 5:37 PM, Quasievil said:

A great conversation would be to discuss what could go wrong at this point and not simply to be Debbie Downers. My assumption is the GGEM's solution is based on an earlier phase from the GFS run. Right?

 

It's a pretty long conversation to be honest. Late phase would be very dicey. Too early could be a disaster. Further east track..ouch..

 

There's plenty to go wrong. As the suites come out it's probably best to just focus on the vort track, trough axis, and piece of energy over the gl's.

 

One big thing in our favor is the block and slow movement. Opens the door to have a better window of "some" snow through the evolution. My benchmark is still the 2" thing but nothing wrong with glazing over eye candy as it comes out. 

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Ian

Ian

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  On 3/1/2013 at 5:41 PM, Highzenberg said:

Like Ji said, the 500mb on these model runs is absolute porn. The best part for you guys is the way it phases warm air would be sent into NE while Philly to DC gets clocked. 

a lot of the 'epic' mid atlantic storms screw ny and new england.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/1/2013 at 5:39 PM, Ian said:

I wonder if Accu realizes Ash Wednesday gave DC 4" of snow. I mean that would be awesome and I know it hammered higher elevation but their press release calls for a potential major blizzard in the cities.

no two storms are exactly alike, 2-3 degrees difference and 50 miles east and that would have been 10" plus in the cities.  Besides Accuhype wants viewers. 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
  On 3/1/2013 at 5:41 PM, psuhoffman said:

I think the general evolution of the system is understood by the guidance at this point.  The 3 possible "screw jobs" we could get would be

1.  A late phase solution where it all comes together 6 hours too late for us and we watch NJ northeast get nailed (my biggest fear)

2.  The trend of an earlier phase continues and actually ends up cutting this inland (unlikely IMHO right now given the setup)

3.  The whole trough ends up further north then guidance and the storm simply tracks too far north for us (second biggest concern)

I think 1 is a possibility, but I think 2 and 3 are low.  I think a more likely possibility is no phase at all and it just bowling-balls OTS after giving Columbia (South Carolina) some flurries.  

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Quasievil

Quasievil

Posted
Posted
  On 3/1/2013 at 5:41 PM, psuhoffman said:

I think the general evolution of the system is understood by the guidance at this point.  The 3 possible "screw jobs" we could get would be

1.  A late phase solution where it all comes together 6 hours too late for us and we watch NJ northeast get nailed (my biggest fear)

2.  The trend of an earlier phase continues and actually ends up cutting this inland (unlikely IMHO right now given the setup)

3.  The whole trough ends up further north then guidance and the storm simply tracks too far north for us (second biggest concern)

I want this storm like everyone else but it's hard to not to be worried by #1 or #3 just like you. That northern stream has not played nice. The seasonal trends last year and this year don't support this solution. Hopefully, we can finally buck them.

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vinylfreak89

vinylfreak89

Posted
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  On 3/1/2013 at 5:44 PM, WxUSAF said:

I think 1 is a possibility, but I think 2 and 3 are low.  I think a more likely possibility is no phase at all and it just bowling-balls OTS after giving Columbia (South Carolina) some flurries.  

Are there any models that do this though? Based on the data I've seen, nearly everything has trended toward a partial phase.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
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  On 3/1/2013 at 5:47 PM, vinylfreak89 said:

Are there any models that do this though? Based on the data I've seen, nearly everything has trended toward a partial phase.

2-3 of the GEFS members are like the Op with a big stalled storm.  Most of the rest do give us some precip.  1 looks like a late phase like Hoffman is worried about, although we still get precip from it.  1-2 are bowling-balls off the SE coast and 1 doesn't have any storm at all.  

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vinylfreak89

vinylfreak89

Posted
Posted
  On 3/1/2013 at 5:48 PM, WxUSAF said:

2-3 of the GEFS members are like the Op with a big stalled storm.  Most of the rest do give us some precip.  1 looks like a late phase like Hoffman is worried about, although we still get precip from it.  1-2 are bowling-balls off the SE coast and 1 doesn't have any storm at all.  

 

what is the handling of the N Atl low and block like on the 3 members that are bowling balls or no storm?

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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted

Dr Postel on the Weather Channel just called the UKMET the outlier to this point.  Consensus is towards GEM, GFS, EURO.  Spoke about "possible" major impacts DC to NY.  Too early for rain/snow lines, etc.  As much as I laugh at the WC sometimes, they have done a nice job in explaining model runs.  Though....they can't touch the brains in this forum!  ;-)

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/1/2013 at 6:06 PM, Scraff said:

Bernie Rayno is a great met on AccuWeather.  You guys should check out his latest video on the storm.  No hype--just truth.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-vide...ion/91358901001

 

I mentioned that on Facebook. It seems that certain individual AccuWx forecasters are quite balanced. Bernie does a good job of explaining the situation and that the models could certainly flip flop some more. Simply says the odds are up from before. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/1/2013 at 5:44 PM, WxUSAF said:

I think 1 is a possibility, but I think 2 and 3 are low.  I think a more likely possibility is no phase at all and it just bowling-balls OTS after giving Columbia (South Carolina) some flurries.  

yea I would put that into option 1, just the ubber 1 solution.  I think we agree on the biggest threat

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