WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 5:51 PM, yoda said: 7 of the GFS ensembles members still have decent precip in the area at 120 (as in .1+ QPF), which leads me to believe the OP is still to far SE I think so as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 5:54 PM, Ian said: there are waaaaaay more people who talk about the models these days than even 2 or 3 years ago. most don't really understand the bias aspect and how to use them all together from what i've gathered. there has been a proliferation of "only use the euro" of late.. from mets.. which imo is bizarre. Yeah. I have to wonder if these "mets" were asleep during synoptic and modeling/forecasting class ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 5:52 PM, tdmorrow said: It makes sense because the 0z and 12z runs are the runs with the new data. That's not true. DTK has stated till he's blue in the face that the 6 & 18z have the most up to date ships, surface, and plane obs @ init. Those runs should never be thrown out but the 0-12z given the most weight. There has been many times that the 6 & 18z sniffed a shift first and the main runs followed suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What MIGHT be skewing the GEFS QPF mean is at 108, 6 of the ensembles show an area of 1" QPF over top of us or very close to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 5:44 PM, thunderman said: Not sure I agree with this. Most of the general public doesn't even know what a snowfall "gradient" is. The will see one model that has snow and that's all they will see. It would be counterproductive IMO. Yeah, people hear what they want and remember as such. I'm sure someone will remember last nights ECMWF as a local mets forecast. Always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 5:56 PM, Bob Chill said: That's not true. DTK has stated till he's blue in the face that the 6 & 18z have the most up to date ships, surface, and plane obs @ init. Those runs should never be thrown out but the 0-12z given the most weight. There has been many times that the 6 & 18z sniffed a shift first and the main runs followed suit. That is probably true but I don't think those change the models as much as the new upper air data does and that only comes out every 00z and 12z. I have seen many changes in the 6z and 18z runs, but I was telling him that is probably why he thinks he sees more noticeable changes on the 00z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 5:57 PM, yoda said: What MIGHT be skewing the GEFS QPF mean is at 108, 6 of the ensembles show an area of 1" QPF over top of us or very close to us But there also are no complete whiffs anymore and there are quite a few like the ones you mention that hammer us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 6:04 PM, usedtobe said: But there also are no complete whiffs anymore and there are quite a few like the ones you mention that hammer us. It also helps that on those 6, the h5 map is absolutely perfect for us or just about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 euro looks norther so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 h5 closed off and in W IA at 78 hrs is what I am reading in the SE forum -- re the 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 stronger OV low at 90.. definitely should be wtter into dc area than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 6:14 PM, Ian said: stronger OV low at 90.. definitely should be wtter into dc area than 0zbring it baby. Bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 looks like it's still going to favor SW of DC but it is at least a bit better up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 6:14 PM, Ian said: stronger OV low at 90.. definitely should be wtter into dc area than 0z Every 12Z run seems to be wetter than the 00Z versions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 6:16 PM, Ian said: looks like it's still going to favor SW of DC but it is at least a bit better up here a slow creep north with each run....who woulda' thunk, ehh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 low stalls around 102/108 over the e nc/ e va border area. tight gradient across dc area.. .75" in dc so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like the low is occluding by the time precip starts hitting Balt/DC edit: Precip intensifies again in NE VA between 108-114hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 DC pushing 1" by 114... most of VA 1.5"+.. trails off fast over N MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Temps? I like how 850 looks at 96 on the free sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 temps look the same, better, or worse eyeballin' it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 snow maps crush the WV/VA border area.. mainly a west of DC accum but 4-8" right on the doorstep. 8"+ back toward leesburg etc. nada NE MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like the unusual se jog idea is going away. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 There's going to a pretty sweet deformation zone somewhere in VA, someone will get the initial WAA snows and then stay in that spot as the low goes East. Wherever that is will get the foot + accumes imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ian, how much dropoff in qpf as you head north from DCA? Still decent qpf up toward Phineas and psu or is that where the cutoff is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 6:22 PM, Ian said: snow maps crush the WV/VA border area.. mainly a west of DC accum but 4-8" right on the doorstep. 8"+ back toward leesburg etc. nada NE MD. I'll bide my time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 6:22 PM, NE Balti Zen said: Ian, how much dropoff in qpf as you head north from DCA? Still decent qpf up toward Phineas and psu or is that where the cutoff is? .5"+ gets pretty much everyone except extreme NE MD which is a little less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 6:20 PM, zwyts said: this is a pretty sweet run for us....~1.25" for DCA through 114 with more to come nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 6:23 PM, mitchnick said: I'll bide my time Wish I had your confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 6:22 PM, Ian said: snow maps crush the WV/VA border area.. mainly a west of DC accum but 4-8" right on the doorstep. 8"+ back toward leesburg etc. nada NE MD. So we break our streak in DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 really good time of day (or night I should say) to get started with precip. Could be an accum saver of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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