mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 3:02 PM, usedtobe said: Plus I could be wrong, predicting models is a perilous task again, fwiw, the NAM shows decent precip breaking out over us at 84 hrs too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 3:06 PM, mitchnick said: again, fwiw, the NAM shows decent precip breaking out over us at 84 hrs too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif It also has the upper low farther n than the 06Z 90 hr GFS so in that sense you are correct. I'm not sure it means much either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 3:01 PM, Fozz said: January 30, 2010 had a pretty massive jump north in the last day or so. Went from next to nothing, to a nice 4-8" storm for DC and Baltimore. I believe he was referring to the 2 monster Feb storms...If I recall correctly, those were modeled pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 3:15 PM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I believe he was referring to the 2 monster Feb storms...If I recall correctly, those were modeled pretty well. I should have been more specific. I meant to say the 2009-2010 winter. I can't recall which one trended more north than we may have expected. Could have been the one in DEc but my memory tells me that it was not only a mild surprise because of the trend but also because we had already been hit hard that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 First time I have seen the h5 energy open... 12z GFS at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS is doing its thing at 57 hours. Big bowling ball setting up in the midwest. Northern stream is more potent. Holy smokestacks, it's ramping up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like its going to be close at 84... ULL block shows up but I think its far enough east to have it come north just a lil more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 At hour 84 compared to last run of the gfs you could see a slight shift ne with the closed low over ny state. And it looks like it's enough to allow a further n solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Decent qpf but temps are gonna be an issue. Mtns southwest VA are gonna get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like a better defined northern stream and some interaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Triple closed contour h5 low in NE TN/W NC at 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 at 102 there are 2 qpf maxes. 1.) in southern VA and 2.) in NOVA/DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS definitely better up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 h5 energy is coming off somewhere between HSE and Norfolk at 102, still triple contoured closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like a good run.....I goota go do a quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 .75-1" in NOVA/DC.. Line basically runs the Potomac. Sharp cutoff to the north. 1-2.5" from EZF to VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 4:01 PM, yoda said: h5 energy is coming off somewhere between HSE and Norfolk at 102, still triple contoured closed All hell would break lose if this closed low opened up at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Nice slp placement @ 102. CCB likely in our general area regardless of what the model shows. What a damn nailbiter. Game of inches @ h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 A non-mentionable pro forcaster has dc in the heavy snow crosshairs on his Saturday map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 still a mainly west of dc snow accum verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like the same idea on the 12z GFS with regards to the h5 level as the past few GFS runs on h5... once it gets to E NC it slows down and slowly moves E... luckily for us it has been moving slightly north some to get us into the heavier QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 4:02 PM, Bob Chill said: Nice slp placement @ 102. CCB likely in our general area regardless of what the model shows. What a damn nailbiter. Game of inches @ h5. It seems this run is trying to show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks good. Splitting hairs over the placement of the heaviest bands at 100 hours is silliness. We are in good shape on this run, although it will need to come down like gangbusters to be snow given the temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 make it easy on peoples eyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 4:04 PM, Ian said: still a mainly west of dc snow accum verbatim. Mountains do well. Only area of the coastal plain w/ accum is in southern VA under the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 3:58 PM, ACFD FIREMAN said: Decent qpf but temps are gonna be an issue. Mtns southwest VA are gonna get smoked. Give us gobs of qpf and let it be what helps temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 4:05 PM, ACFD FIREMAN said: Mountains do well. Only area of the coastal plain w/ accum is in southern VA under the low. Which the SV maps have as 8-12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 4:04 PM, Ian said: still a mainly west of dc snow accum verbatim. Yea, pretty much. It's nice to see the 850 low track in more traditional fashion instead of those weird s jogs. Almost due e off obx is better than some weird se movement. I took a real close look @ h5 leading in. It's close to letting the lp turn the corner a little more. That would be the ideal best case. It could be more wrapped and have a better chance @ drawing in what little cold air there is available and put us right in the heavy qpf max. I'm not weenieing out. It's a stretch but not off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 On 3/2/2013 at 4:07 PM, Bob Chill said: Yea, pretty much. It's nice to see the 850 low track in more traditional fashion instead of those weird s jogs. Almost due e off obx is better than some weird se movement. I took a real close look @ h5 leading in. It's close to letting the lp turn the corner a little more. That would be the ideal best case. It could be more wrapped and have a better chance @ drawing in what little cold air there is available and put us right in the heavy qpf max. I'm not weenieing out. It's a stretch but not off the table. Wouldn't history dictate a more ne movement at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is a good run. I said earlier I'm fine with a central va bullseye at 100 hours. This will bleed north a bit the final 72 hours. We needed the south trend to stop and this run edged north a bit. If we just need a 100 mile drift the last 48 hours were in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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