blazeKing Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 How about temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 dc is more on the .5" line to me.. tho it's a realllly tight gradient. qpf is way down dc and north from earlier. if the deform band sets up to our south we're not going to be too excited. I think I am going to go with zwyts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Look. It's not as much as 12z, but we're still in this. 4 days left and we're still gonna see wild swings. I think it's just good to hear it's in the same ballpark as what 12Z had at this point, rather than showing a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Huh? Dc does well. Go 25-50 south out your door and youre crushed. 4 days out your fine deb. lol.. yeah if the last two runs didn't shift size ably south. it's all in interpretation.. i'll let ppl fish for their 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 dc is more on the .5" line to me.. tho it's a realllly tight gradient. qpf is way down dc and north from earlier. if the deform band sets up to our south we're not going to be too excited. Talking about deform bands 4 days out is like talking about rain/snow lines. Its a decent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ezf,cho, roa lyh rdu 2"+ ric /williamsmburg pushing 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 just dont get how we are always too north or too south for storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 How about temps? warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think I am going to go with zwyts you can go with whoever you want.. im staring at the maps. the .5" does end up to our north so we might be closer to .75" but honestly who cares about that level of detail in this range. night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 its a disastrous run. Without heavy precip....its too warm. It wont stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 DC is .78 as is JYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 lol.. yeah if the last two runs didn't shift size ably south. it's all in interpretation.. i'll let ppl fish for their 2'. I know you like to see the negative in everything but really......50-75 mile shift over 4 days is plausible if not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 BWI is .35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 we need this to exit of the VA Capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 a lot of things are going to change with this one...so parsing over these gradients is kind of silly for any of us....I like it to shift north...I dont think it will miss us to the south...but all the other outstanding issues remain..... is there any phasing or is it all bowling ball driven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 euro does the stall over NE nc that should be fun to watch on the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I know you like to see the negative in everything but really......50-75 mile shift over 4 days is plausible if not likely. I think its just as likely that the shift could be 50-75 miles south though. The models are struggling with the strength of the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think its just as likely that the shift could be 50-75 miles south though. The models are struggling with the strength of the block.Agree. But when the euro of all models has qpf totals of nearly 3" within 75 miles its a big big deal. We are all so jaded we are looking at the negatives. And maybe rightfully so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Im encouraged At least this time for right now its the EURO with the big QPF values nearby instead of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I know you like to see the negative in everything but really......50-75 mile shift over 4 days is plausible if not likely. i'm honestly really tired of this stuff. you guys don't do it to wes when he brings the other side to the conversation. i'm not wes.. not even close.. but this **** is old. my interpretation of the euro was exactly as the euro looked. i noted the changes over recent runs. i didn't say it won't shift north, i didn't say we're done for. i didn't really say anything other than what i saw on the model... and it's easily verifiable as true. it is interesting how different people can read a model differently though for sure. i'll work on getting my snow goggles fixed before returning. don't tell anyone i bumped cwg SPI by two tonight.. gotta keep that deb thing going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's pretty easy seeing the negative around here when we've had 2" the last 2 years. Especially since we have about 100" of day 5 euro snow. 1-2" qpf could verify over DC but probably not. I think we all knew after the 18z gfs that the euro was going to cave on those qpf numbers for dc, it's only happened like 20 times this year and last. The model showing the least snow here has won out almost every time. Doesn't mean it will happen this time. We've seen the south solution, we've seen the north solution, now we're coming to the middle with slight adjustments probably to go. I just hope those adjustments are north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 03z SREFs mean way out there FWIW has the h5 energy somewhere around the S MN/IA/S WI/N IL area at 87 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I stand by what I said. Best predicted/obvious storm in DC in last 10 years was the Feb. 5 2010 blizzard. And NO ONE would have bet more than a few dollars on the Sunday before that Friday (Super Bowl Sunday) that the DGEX was correct.. And no other storm in last 20 years comes close to being as accurately predicted 5 days away. Maybe Blzzard of 1996, but that is budding against that 20 year window. I'll take this bet. I want snow as much as the next person but this isn't 2010, which also means it's not the same pattern. I totally agree that in 2010 when the models said my area would get a second "blizzard" five days from the first, I scoffed. I never, ever thought we'd get a second storm, but I was wrong, so maybe you're right. Frankly, I hope so. But, in the event that you're wrong, what do you want to bet? And what odds? And where do we measure the said snowfall? I think DCA is out. They suck. BWI's measurement of snow? IAD? Tell me what you think is a fair over/under based on the model runs, or your own forecast and we can banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm guessing the 00Z EC will be an outlier compared to its ensemble mean in terms of the low going from Elizabeth City NC to southeast of Cape Hatteras. Very rarely do we see a SE shift like that over that longitude benchmark. Oh, and the EC snow output is weird to...basically all areas east of I-95 north of EZF gets the shaft. Meanwhile RIC 4-5". I think when all is said and done we're going to conclude that both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF were not lining up well with their ensemble means. GFS was a notable S-SE outlier with the surface low track compared to the GEFS mean. I think the 00Z EC ensemble mean will in turn not support that funky operational EC track from 120-132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 120 - 997 L 50 to 100 miles ENE of HSE (ECMWF enemble mean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS about to go boom?. Came north, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS trolled us. Hard. OMG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ... That cut off for Northern Va... O-o; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ... That cut off for Northern Va... O-o; Just brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It came north at least... so we can take that away but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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