Potential Winter Storm March 6-7

[SnoSki14]

The blocking is favorable so that we shouldn't worry about the low going too close to the coast and in this setup I would think you would get more northern stream energy involved as the block allows more phasing to happen than it normally would. 

[Weathergun]

Verbatim the 12z GFS soundings on the Bufkit, show everyone Newark S&E changing over from snow to sleet to rain between between 120-126hrs. Temps warm above 0C, at 950mb, with strong ENE-NE winds.

[Zir0b]

At 123 hours, it looked like the entire northern stream was ready to dive in:

 

 

 

But at 144, you can see that it only partially did. Look at all that energy left behind! 

If that phased in we'd be looking at a GGEM-like solution 

[Kaner587]

For reference because I'm sure people out there forgot their metric conversion but for ever 10mm it's 0.4in so that would be 1.6-2.0 in qpf from hr 132-144

[bluewave]

One thing I keep getting drawn to on every medium range model is the huge block that is now appearing in a more favorable position, from Southeast Canada stretching into the Northwest Atlantic. When you look at that, you just get the idea that if the guidance isn't completely whiffing with that suggestion...the chances of seeing this big phased cutoff low are going up pretty markedly.

 

Though the tax day storm in April 2007 was further north than the models currently indicate, I can remember all the models

locking into a big cuttoff idea from more than a week out.

[Zir0b]

PSU GGEM maps are out...

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[Wxoutlooksblog]

the least snowy solution would be this mornings EURO with the low tucked into the coast - you want this storm to be off the coast with a track that supports northeast winds if you get east to southeast winds from a powerful storm too close to the coast - liquid is favored in the immediate NYC metro area ..............

The least snowy solution is definitely the GFS which is mostly rain at the coast.

WX/PT

[ace0927]

it was 19 degrees in NYC on Dec. 9th...That's pretty cold for Dec. 9th...

for the high or the low?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The least snowy solution is definitely the GFS which is mostly rain at the coast.

WX/PT

Not only that, but most of the snow that would fall would melt in coastal areas going by the GFS. Temps are above freezing the entire time at the surface going by the GFS.

WX/PT

[SR Airglow]

the least snowy solution would be this mornings EURO with the low tucked into the coast - you want this storm to be off the coast with a track that supports northeast winds if you get east to southeast winds from a powerful storm too close to the coast - liquid is favored in the immediate NYC metro area ..............

?

I think you're looking at the wrong run, 0z EURO was a bomb...

 

-skisheep

[ace0927]

it was 19 degrees in NYC on Dec. 9th...That's pretty cold for Dec. 9th...

the splits on 12/8 37/28, 12/9 were 33/19 and 12/10 45/26...that is generic cold at best...one morning, 2 days prior to an event, of 20 doesnt equal arctic air

[Kaner587]

the splits on 12/8 37/28, 12/9 were 33/19 and 12/10 45/26...that is generic cold at best...one morning, 2 days prior to an event, of 20 doesnt equal arctic air

We can say a lot of things about that but early December with a cut-off low with 50 something degree ocean water plays a HUGE role with screaming easterly flow, even if it were 25 when the precip started, we would have still eventually changed to rain

[snywx]

12z GGEM Verbatim is a rain event for the coast..

 

 

[jm1220]

12z GGEM Verbatim is a rain event for the coast..

The GGEM's precip panels are almost always too warm. But I agree, with a low tucked in so close to the Delmarva/S NJ, the coast would get torched.

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, strong blocking does not assure that a GFS-like scenario won't prevail. The March 4-6, 2001 storm occurred when the AO was between -3.396 and -3.206 and the NAO ranged between -1.192 and -0.599. The subtle difference this time around is that the blocking will be strengthening as the event commences. The block had peaked and had begun to fade by the time the 2001 event developed.

 

The timing and location of the phase will probably be more important this time around. Were an Arctic air mass present, there would be more leeway, but there isn't. In short, a 2001-type situation is very much among the solutions currently on the table. Colder solutions depending on the phasing aspect are also still on the table.

[Snow_Miser]

Any updates so far on what today's 12z ECMWF run has? Would be much appreciated by many posters.

[goombatommy]

Any updates so far on what today's 12z ECMWF run has? Would be much appreciated by many posters.

Irishbri is doing a pbp in the philly thread.

[Allsnow]

Big hit dca on euro. It's tuck in further south

[dbc]

FWIW, strong blocking does not assure that a GFS-like scenario won't prevail. The March 4-6, 2001 storm occurred when the AO was between -3.396 and -3.206 and the NAO ranged between -1.192 and -0.599. The subtle difference this time around is that the blocking will be strengthening as the event commences. The block had peaked and had begun to fade by the time the 2001 event developed.

 

The timing and location of the phase will probably be more important this time around. Were an Arctic air mass present, there would be more leeway, but there isn't. In short, a 2001-type situation is very much among the solutions currently on the table. Colder solutions depending on the phasing aspect are also still on the table.

Nice post. Where it phases will make a difference if it is a repeat for us of March 2001 or if everything is shifted south this time around. More South is more likely imho.

[Snow_Miser]

Irishbri:

126 full phase, more northern stream interaction from the getgo... nukes from 120-126.. stand by

This sounds like what we want for a colder solution. More phasing from the northern stream will give a colder scenario.

[ace0927]

Irishbri: This sounds like what we want for a colder solution. More phasing from the northern stream will give a colder scenario.

hr144 is way south...not sure of the precip gets to this latitude..

 

cue the GFS is right and euro is wrong posts

 

here is h7 RH

 

andhere is h8 RH

 

so it appears as if the precip makes it up the southern portions of the area

[jm1220]

Irishbri: This sounds like what we want for a colder solution. More phasing from the northern stream will give a colder scenario.

Very close shave for us in terms of getting precip up here. An early phase also means an earlier closing off, and at that point it stops coming north and instead drifts east.

[ace0927]

Very close shave for us in terms of getting precip up here. An early phase also means an earlier closing off, and at that point it stops coming north and instead drifts east.

looks like Monmouth cty is as far north as it gets

[Snow_Miser]

Very close shave for us in terms of getting precip up here. An early phase also means an earlier closing off, and at that point it stops coming north and instead drifts east.

Yeah, we have to watch out for that as well it seems. I'll update everyone when the ECMWF Text finishes updating.

[SnoSki14]

This is why we shouldn't argue about BL temps right now, the models have yet to figure out the track of this storm, they will shift around numerous times before they agree on a solution. 

[Zir0b]

hr144 is way south...not sure of the precip gets to this latitude..

 

cue the GFS is right and euro is wrong posts

 

here is h7 RH

 

 

andhere is h8 RH

 

 

so it appears as if the precip makes it up the southern portions of the area

neither of them are going to be 100% right 6 days out...best to take a 50/50 weight and that puts us in a pretty good spot

[Snow_Miser]

looks like Monmouth cty is as far north as it gets

That's not correct, based off of the ECMWF text that's coming in right now.

[rossi]

Yeah, we have to watch out for that as well it seems. I'll update everyone when the ECMWF Text finishes updating.

.75 to Monmouth cty - down to 2" to Cape May

 

Rossi

[Dsnowx53]

The block shifted to the west a bit. But nowhere near as far west as some runs a couple of days ago. It's still in a pretty decent position, as it eventually does bridge with the SE ridge. But its shift to the west definitely helped suppress this a bit.

The block a bit to the west also helps our cold air source be more continental than marine, though, so we were colder. So I'd almost prefer just a tick east with the block, rather than fully going back to where we were last run.

 

I honestly didn't see THAT much northern stream interaction, though, but I'll look again. 

[ace0927]

the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, March 6-8...same dates...very close analog here. Same block in E canada...closed low over the MA...no real cold air around...