Zir0b Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 In this kind of scenario places like BWI/DC would do better than us...similar to what happened in Jan 25, 2000. The trough takes on a such a negative tilt that it brings in warm air (and dry slot concerns) from the ocean to those who are located further east as the low starts to hook in later on. Of course, this is not likely to be the correct solution as this the 3rd GFS run in a row with major changes. There will continue to be fluctuations in all the variables until our pacific s/w comes onshore in about 3 days. And even then, there will still be much uncertainty with the timing of the phase with the northern branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The northern stream did the worst possible thing here. It helped the storm tuck a bit closer to the coast without fully phasing and actually providing us with cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 this run of the GFS does give us accumulation - looks reasonable for the run itself http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnowdepth138.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The northern stream did the worst possible thing here. It helped the storm tuck a bit closer to the coast without fully phasing and actually providing us with cold air. The thing is, this actually looks like mostly snow for the DC folks...the only reason we have mixing issuing on this run is because how close it's tucked into the coast. Initially we are cold enough for a front-end thump I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is begining to b modeled as potential great storm for some. If this gets to the heights of 2 to 3 inches of rain w 70 mph win gusts. But more impotantly a long duration wind event of 40 to 50 sustained and possibly 2 to 3 ft of snow inland and mtns. The evolution of this is starting to get interesting. You may see a scenario next week whre DC is getting crushed but its pouring in NYC. It is a week away and i would not take any run verbatim. But the modeling is converging on a slow moving cut off bomb off the EC. Details will unfold over the 2 or 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The thing is, this actually looks like mostly snow for the DC folks...the only reason we have mixing issuing on this run is because how close it's tucked into the coast. Initially we are cold enough for a front-end thump I would think It's kind of like that late February storm a few years ago where we had snow and Boston had all rain except now DC gets all snow and we get a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Verbatim even with the changeover/ 'warm solution' we still get 6-12" away from the immediate coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The thing is, this actually looks like mostly snow for the DC folks...the only reason we have mixing issuing on this run is because how close it's tucked into the coast. Initially we are cold enough for a front-end thump I would think Yeah, a different track and we would have been fine. But given this track, we need a fully phased in northern stream to provide areas further east with cold air...otherwise the storm is mainly a Pacific entity. Areas further west wouldn't need that. The 6z GFS was colder because although it didn't have a fully phased northern stream, either, it had a more favorable track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm not saying this is the outcome, I'm only going on what the GFS showed. I wouldn't be hugely concerned about an outcome for another few days, maybe by Monday. But if that scenario played out, it would be a nightmare for the coast. The Euro's solution last night would be very concerning as well. Beaches around here are still extremely vulnerable and would be able to take less of a pounding than usual-and this outcome would essentially be another 12/11/92. And yes, snowlovers on the coast would hate it as well. December 1992 had artcic cold a day before the storm...this time there is no arctic air but the Ocean is about 10 degrees colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 UKMET way east...looks like the 12z Euro from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 December 1992 had artcic cold a day before the storm...this time there is no arctic air but the Ocean is about 10 degrees colder... im going to disagree with you on this. Will (ORH) in the SNE thread lives in ORH and received 30" always discusses this storm. There was no arctic air anywhere on this side of the globe pre or post that storm. here are 850's day before - hardly arctic and here is the NH view: as you can see, there was no cold air around at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Without focusing too much on the details of individual runs, I think it is very encouraging to see the models showing a set up similar to this moving forward in time. The general look on the GFS at 102 hours is very favorable. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f102.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 NYC subways flooded again. This run would most likely bring significant problems to many interests along the coast. The Euro last night had me concerned and the GFS this afternoon follows suit. We'll see if it's just mid range model fantasy...but I think the potential is higher than normal for a big storm. It's just a matter of where it ends up..and the blocking/confluence and individual interactions between the shortwaves will determine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GGEM has a very strange evolution with the track...but @ 144 hrs it has the low in a similar location to GFS but colder...looks like it phases more of the northern stream energy?? Hard to tell with those archaic b/w maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 wow on the GGEM http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg my guess is winds would be screaming out of the E, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The new Canadian looks like it has another monster cutoff low. 987mb just east of Ocean City Maryland and the frame before this seems to hint at some phasing of the northern stream, which was not there at all on last nights run despite the Pac NW shortwave becoming its own cutoff low and moving east . http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 wow on the GGEM my guess is winds would be screaming out of the E, however Screaming east maybe but arguably colder than the GFS which as it was had 4-8 for NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Without focusing too much on the details of individual runs, I think it is very encouraging to see the models showing a set up similar to this moving forward in time. The general look on the GFS at 102 hours is very favorable. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f102.gif Agreed. This is a setup that we should all be happy to have. Things can certainly go wrong, of course, but the general synoptic setup is quite favorable. There are several ways this can change back into a snowy solution for us. Regardless, a lot of the area would at least start as some snow, anyway, and even decent accumulations in many locations before a changeover to rain. A different track/location of getting cut off, OR, a earlier, fully phased northern stream would do the trick. And I think given the blocking, IF the northern stream feature is real, there should have been a fuller phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Screaming east maybe but arguably colder than the GFS which as it was had 4-8 for NYC metro would have to guess the GGEM has more QPF than the GFS based on the 132/144 plots and more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The new Canadian looks like it has another monster cutoff low. 987mb just east of Ocean City Maryland and the frame before this seems to hint at some phasing of the northern stream, which was not there at all on last nights run despite the Pac NW shortwave becoming its own cutoff low and moving east . http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Key is it phases the northern stream energy in and is moving eastward slowly. There's just enough cold air that it would be primarily a heavy wet snow event for most of us. The models are going to bounce around/back & forth a little with this idea most likely. And I would still not completely rule out the idea of the UKMET OTS solution, though today, that is becoming less likely (as of now). WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 At 123 hours, it looked like the entire northern stream was ready to dive in: But at 144, you can see that it only partially did. Look at all that energy left behind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Screaming east maybe but arguably colder than the GFS which as it was had 4-8 for NYC metro Yeah, that's important to remember, that even on the least snowy solution(the GFS), it's still a solid advisory event for KNYC, and probably a warning event for most people not on the immediate shoreline, which is nice for march. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The new Canadian looks like it has another monster cutoff low. 987mb just east of Ocean City Maryland and the frame before this seems to hint at some phasing of the northern stream, which was not there at all on last nights run despite the Pac NW shortwave becoming its own cutoff low and moving east . http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Yeah, it definitely looks like more northern stream was phased in. That's why, despite a similar track to the GFS, it looks a lot colder. This is a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Wouldn't the winds be more out of the NE given the low is offshore and the positioning of the high in Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 One thing I keep getting drawn to on every medium range model is the huge block that is now appearing in a more favorable position, from Southeast Canada stretching into the Northwest Atlantic. When you look at that, you just get the idea that if the guidance isn't completely whiffing with that suggestion...the chances of seeing this big phased cutoff low are going up pretty markedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Almost positive this would be a paste bomb on the Canadian. Yikes..what a solution. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 You've got to like the position of the Canadian High for a major late-season snowstorm. Both the GFS and the GGEM show that cold air wedged into the coast. The more the northern stream gets involved, the more potential there is for the coast to remain mostly snow. I'm not that worried up in Westchester though, looks like a bit hit coming in March, and it's about time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 im going to disagree with you on this. Will (ORH) in the SNE thread lives in ORH and received 30" always discusses this storm. There was no arctic air anywhere on this side of the globe pre or post that storm. here are 850's day before - hardly arctic and here is the NH view: as you can see, there was no cold air around at all. it was 19 degrees in NYC on Dec. 9th...That's pretty cold for Dec. 9th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The 540 line looks well south of the area as we get pelted with 50mm QPF on the 12z GGEM. Definitely colder than the GFS/ECM guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Almost positive this would be a paste bomb on the Canadian. Yikes..what a solution. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Earthlight if that ggem depiction doesn't deserve a mother of god post I don't know what would. 40-50mm in 12 hours. Wild wild stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.