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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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In this kind of scenario places like BWI/DC would do better than us...similar to what happened in Jan 25, 2000. The trough takes on a such a negative tilt that it brings in warm air (and dry slot concerns) from the ocean to those who are located further east as the low starts to hook in later on. Of course, this is not likely to be the correct solution as this the 3rd GFS run in a row with major changes. There will continue to be fluctuations in all the variables until our pacific s/w comes onshore in about 3 days. And even then, there will still be much uncertainty with the timing of the phase with the northern branch. 

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The northern stream did the worst possible thing here. It helped the storm tuck a bit closer to the coast without fully phasing and actually providing us with cold air.

The thing is, this actually looks like mostly snow for the DC folks...the only reason we have mixing issuing on this run is because how close it's tucked into the coast. Initially we are cold enough for a front-end thump I would think 

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This is begining to b modeled as potential great storm for some. If this gets to the heights of 2 to 3 inches of rain w 70 mph win gusts. But more impotantly a long duration wind event of 40 to 50 sustained and possibly 2 to 3 ft of snow inland and mtns. The evolution of this is starting to get interesting.

You may see a scenario next week whre DC is getting crushed but its pouring in NYC. It is a week away and i would not take any run verbatim. But the modeling is converging on a slow moving cut off bomb off the EC. Details will unfold over the 2 or 3 days.

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The thing is, this actually looks like mostly snow for the DC folks...the only reason we have mixing issuing on this run is because how close it's tucked into the coast. Initially we are cold enough for a front-end thump I would think 

 

It's kind of like that late February storm a few years ago where we had snow and Boston had all rain except now DC gets all snow and we get a lot of rain. 

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The thing is, this actually looks like mostly snow for the DC folks...the only reason we have mixing issuing on this run is because how close it's tucked into the coast. Initially we are cold enough for a front-end thump I would think 

 

 

Yeah, a different track and we would have been fine. But given this track, we need a fully phased in northern stream to provide areas further east with cold air...otherwise the storm is mainly a Pacific entity. Areas further west wouldn't need that. 

 

The 6z GFS was colder because although it didn't have a fully phased northern stream, either, it had a more favorable track. 

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I'm not saying this is the outcome, I'm only going on what the GFS showed. I wouldn't be hugely concerned about an outcome for another few days, maybe by Monday. But if that scenario played out, it would be a nightmare for the coast. The Euro's solution last night would be very concerning as well. Beaches around here are still extremely vulnerable and would be able to take less of a pounding than usual-and this outcome would essentially be another 12/11/92. And yes, snowlovers on the coast would hate it as well.

 December 1992 had artcic cold a day before the storm...this time there is no arctic air but the Ocean is about 10 degrees colder...

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 December 1992 had artcic cold a day before the storm...this time there is no arctic air but the Ocean is about 10 degrees colder...

im going to disagree with you on this. Will (ORH) in the SNE thread lives in ORH and received 30" always discusses this storm. There was no arctic air anywhere on this side of the globe pre or post that storm.

 

here are 850's day before - hardly arctic

 

 

130301170103.gif

 

and here is the NH view:

 

130301170209.gif

 

as you can see, there was no cold air around at all.

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NYC subways flooded again.

 

This run would most likely bring significant problems to many interests along the coast. The Euro last night had me concerned and the GFS this afternoon follows suit. We'll see if it's just mid range model fantasy...but I think the potential is higher than normal for a big storm. It's just a matter of where it ends up..and the blocking/confluence and individual interactions between the shortwaves will determine that.

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GGEM has a very strange evolution with the track...but @ 144 hrs it has the low in a similar location to GFS but colder...looks like it phases more of the northern stream energy??  Hard to tell with those archaic b/w maps 

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The new Canadian looks like it has another monster cutoff low. 987mb just east of Ocean City Maryland and the frame before this seems to hint at some phasing of the northern stream, which was not there at all on last nights run despite the Pac NW shortwave becoming its own cutoff low and moving east

.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

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Without focusing too much on the details of individual runs, I think it is very encouraging to see the models showing a set up similar to this moving forward in time. The general look on the GFS at 102 hours is very favorable.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f102.gif

 

 

Agreed. This is a setup that we should all be happy to have. Things can certainly go wrong, of course, but the general synoptic setup is quite favorable.

 

There are several ways this can change back into a snowy solution for us. Regardless, a lot of the area would at least start as some snow, anyway, and even decent accumulations in many locations before a changeover to rain. A different track/location of getting cut off, OR, a earlier, fully phased northern stream would do the trick. And I think given the blocking, IF the northern stream feature is real, there should have been a fuller phase. 

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The new Canadian looks like it has another monster cutoff low. 987mb just east of Ocean City Maryland and the frame before this seems to hint at some phasing of the northern stream, which was not there at all on last nights run despite the Pac NW shortwave becoming its own cutoff low and moving east

.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

Key is it phases the northern stream energy in and is moving eastward slowly. There's just enough cold air that it would be primarily a heavy wet snow event for most of us. The models are going to bounce around/back & forth a little with this idea most likely. And I would still not completely rule out the idea of the UKMET OTS solution, though today, that is becoming less likely (as of now).

WX/PT

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Screaming east maybe but arguably colder than the GFS which as it was had 4-8 for NYC metro

Yeah, that's important to remember, that even on the least snowy solution(the GFS), it's still a solid advisory event for KNYC, and probably a warning event for most people not on the immediate shoreline, which is nice for march.

-skisheep

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The new Canadian looks like it has another monster cutoff low. 987mb just east of Ocean City Maryland and the frame before this seems to hint at some phasing of the northern stream, which was not there at all on last nights run despite the Pac NW shortwave becoming its own cutoff low and moving east

.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

 

Yeah, it definitely looks like more northern stream was phased in. That's why, despite a similar track to the GFS, it looks a lot colder. This is a great run. 

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One thing I keep getting drawn to on every medium range model is the huge block that is now appearing in a more favorable position, from Southeast Canada stretching into the Northwest Atlantic. When you look at that, you just get the idea that if the guidance isn't completely whiffing with that suggestion...the chances of seeing this big phased cutoff low are going up pretty markedly.

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You've got to like the position of the Canadian High for a major late-season snowstorm. Both the GFS and the GGEM show that cold air wedged into the coast. The more the northern stream gets involved, the more potential there is for the coast to remain mostly snow. I'm not that worried up in Westchester though, looks like a bit hit coming in March, and it's about time. 

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im going to disagree with you on this. Will (ORH) in the SNE thread lives in ORH and received 30" always discusses this storm. There was no arctic air anywhere on this side of the globe pre or post that storm.

 

here are 850's day before - hardly arctic

 

 

130301170103.gif

 

and here is the NH view:

 

130301170209.gif

 

as you can see, there was no cold air around at all.

it was 19 degrees in NYC on Dec. 9th...That's pretty cold for Dec. 9th...

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