ezweather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Thats the thing with this storm is mixing issues, but way too early to get into that. The idea here is and its been discussed is that there will be a big storm on the table come next week. So, finally the GFS starting to show the big storm. Still, have to wait for the ensembles this afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'd be concerned about the coastal areas but I think the typical TTN to Freehold line with be the demarcation. VV's are through the roof. Probably a huge wet, thump snow event. Winds are NE for the entire storm...850's actually drop during the first half of the storm as well from C NJ and north. Edit: looks like GFS gets really aggressive...verbatim it's a huge thump snow over to dry slot. Very similar to the Jan 25, 1999 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Warm run but a big run! It looks very negative this run forcing temps to be warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I wonder - could this be a V-Day 2007 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Gfs looks pretty warm.. Kind of concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Loads of QPF, but verbatim would be snow to rain along 95...but not until after 6-12"+ of snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Gfs looks pretty warm.. Kind of concerning Yes if you believe the GFS 5 DAYS OUT - Lets wait for Euro and probaly by Sunday 0Z. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 A very very long duration event regardless of precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The gfs might be too warm with this. There's def more northern stream involvement which is good if you want the cold air. We need even more involvement or we get a heavy wind driven rainstorm for the coast. The coastal flooding looks to be a major concern regardless with this intense gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It takes too long for the northern stream to really get involved, which is why temps are able to warm. This is somewhat of a concern, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'd be concerned about the coastal areas but I think the typical TTN to Freehold line with be the demarcation. VV's are through the roof. Probably a huge wet, thump snow event. Winds are NE for the entire storm...850's actually drop during the first half of the storm as well from C NJ and north. Edit: looks like GFS gets really aggressive...verbatim it's a huge thump snow over to dry slot. Very similar to the Jan 25, 1999 event. Something along lines of March 31 1997 in Bos but less on QPF side? ( that one droppoed their record 27 inches) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Low is too close to the coast...we get torched by screaming east winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Low is too close to the coast...we get torched by screaming east winds If it played out exactly like this many would not like the result. Screaming easterly winds kill the BL after initially starting out frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 2-3" QPF and still precipiation falling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just bear in mind 24-36 hours ago Euro was going soft and virtually all other models were OTS and everyone was out to lunch on hope so lets be greateful where we are now. The preogression is highly in NY's favor at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It takes too long for the northern stream to really get involved, which is why temps are able to warm. This is somewhat of a concern, IMO. It looks like snow to rain if you take it literally with not enough cold air poised to the n and w to filter in on the backside. Of course this could change. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 At least the northern stream gets involved. 00z and 06z had a really strung out look. It takes too long for the northern stream to really get involved, which is why temps are able to warm. This is somewhat of a concern, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'd be concerned about the coastal areas but I think the typical TTN to Freehold line with be the demarcation. VV's are through the roof. Probably a huge wet, thump snow event. Winds are NE for the entire storm...850's actually drop during the first half of the storm as well from C NJ and north. Edit: looks like GFS gets really aggressive...verbatim it's a huge thump snow over to dry slot. Very similar to the Jan 25, 1999 event. Jan 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 If it played out exactly like this many would not like the result. Screaming easterly winds kill the BL after initially starting out frozen Unfortunately that's what happens when we're in March instead of February although it's still too far out to know for sure what will happen. I actually think the final track will be somewhat similar to what the gfs shows, but the level of northern stream involvement and thus the amount of cold air involved will be a huge question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It looks like snow to rain if you take it literally with not enough cold air poised to the n and w to filter in on the backside. Of course this could change. WX/PT The position of the high is good, I'd expect we might see more a of a NE surface wind as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS has a ton of precip but temps are an issue for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This would be really bad news for coastal interests. USA_GUSTM_sfc_138.gif Colder version of March 2010?..really can't hop on this run,being that 12 hours ago the GFS had the storm approaching Bermuda..Euro run will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 If it played out exactly like this many would not like the result. Screaming easterly winds kill the BL after initially starting out frozen Screaming east winds for 1-2 days would be a horrible scenario for the coastal areas-tons of water piled up and huge waves. Hopefully this is a more progressive storm in the end and doesn't stall out. As for snow, if there's a screaming east wind it torches, almost guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Look at how much leftover energy there is at 144 hours at 500mb. Since that never really dropped in, this storm remains a Pacific entity and the cold air source gets cut off. If that were to fully drop in while the storm was going negative up the coast, this run would have been a lot colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Screaming east winds for 1-2 days would be a horrible scenario for the coastal areas-tons of water piled up and huge waves. Hopefully this is a more progressive storm in the end and doesn't stall out. As for snow, if there's a screaming east wind it torches, almost guaranteed. Jim..guaranteed?..I mean come on..the GFS didn't have this storm yesterday..I doubt this will be the outcome..we could probably zone in on temps by Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 NYC subways flooded again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Screaming east winds for 1-2 days would be a horrible scenario for the coastal areas-tons of water piled up and huge waves. Hopefully this is a more progressive storm in the end and doesn't stall out. As for snow, if there's a screaming east wind it torches, almost guaranteed. As is, the gfs would be a lose-lose scenario for most. Not enough cold for snow or a snow to heavy wind driven rain and dangerous wind and coastal flooding for the still many vulnerable coastal areas post Sandy. Looks like a mix between Dec 1992 and March 1962. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Jim..guaranteed?..I mean come on..the GFS didn't have this storm yesterday..I doubt this will be the outcome..we could probably zone in on temps by Monday I'm not saying this is the outcome, I'm only going on what the GFS showed. I wouldn't be hugely concerned about an outcome for another few days, maybe by Monday. But if that scenario played out, it would be a nightmare for the coast. The Euro's solution last night would be very concerning as well. Beaches around here are still extremely vulnerable and would be able to take less of a pounding than usual-and this outcome would essentially be another 12/11/92. And yes, snowlovers on the coast would hate it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Jim..guaranteed?..I mean come on..the GFS didn't have this storm yesterday..I doubt this will be the outcome..we could probably zone in on temps by Monday I agree with this. Do not hug this one run of the GFS. It could be close to what really happens, totally different, or somewhat different. There will be changes yet to come most likely. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm not saying this is the outcome, I'm only going on what the GFS showed. I wouldn't be hugely concerned about an outcome for another few days, maybe by Monday. But if that scenario played out, it would be a nightmare for the coast. The Euro's solution last night would be very concerning as well. Beaches around here are still extremely vulnerable and would be able to take less of a pounding than usual-and this outcome would essentially be another 12/11/92. And yes, snowlovers on the coast would hate it as well. totally agree..southshore does not need this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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