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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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Thats the thing with this storm is mixing issues, but way too early to get into that.  The idea here is and its been discussed is that there will be a big storm on the table come next week.  So, finally the GFS starting to show the big storm.  Still, have to wait for the ensembles this afternoon..

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I'd be concerned about the coastal areas but I think the typical TTN to Freehold line with be the demarcation. VV's are through the roof. Probably a huge wet, thump snow event. Winds are NE for the entire storm...850's actually drop during the first half of the storm as well from C NJ and north.

 

Edit: looks like GFS gets really aggressive...verbatim it's a huge thump snow over to dry slot. Very similar to the Jan 25, 1999 event.

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The gfs might be too warm with this. There's def more northern stream involvement which is good if you want the cold air. We need even more involvement or we get a heavy wind driven rainstorm for the coast. The coastal flooding looks to be a major concern regardless with this intense gradient. 

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I'd be concerned about the coastal areas but I think the typical TTN to Freehold line with be the demarcation. VV's are through the roof. Probably a huge wet, thump snow event. Winds are NE for the entire storm...850's actually drop during the first half of the storm as well from C NJ and north.

 

Edit: looks like GFS gets really aggressive...verbatim it's a huge thump snow over to dry slot. Very similar to the Jan 25, 1999 event.

Something along lines of March 31 1997 in Bos but less on QPF side? ( that one droppoed their record 27 inches)

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It takes too long for the northern stream to really get involved, which is why temps are able to warm. This is somewhat of a concern, IMO.

It looks like snow to rain if you take it literally with not enough cold air poised to the n and w to filter in on the backside. Of course this could change.

WX/PT

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At least the northern stream gets involved. 00z and 06z had a really strung out look.

It takes too long for the northern stream to really get involved, which is why temps are able to warm. This is somewhat of a concern, IMO.

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I'd be concerned about the coastal areas but I think the typical TTN to Freehold line with be the demarcation. VV's are through the roof. Probably a huge wet, thump snow event. Winds are NE for the entire storm...850's actually drop during the first half of the storm as well from C NJ and north.

 

Edit: looks like GFS gets really aggressive...verbatim it's a huge thump snow over to dry slot. Very similar to the Jan 25, 1999 event.

Jan 2000

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If it played out exactly like this many would not like the result. Screaming easterly winds kill the BL after initially starting out frozen

 

Unfortunately that's what happens when we're in March instead of February although it's still too far out to know for sure what will happen. I actually think the final track will be somewhat similar to what the gfs shows, but the level of northern stream involvement and thus the amount of cold air involved will be a huge question mark. 

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It looks like snow to rain if you take it literally with not enough cold air poised to the n and w to filter in on the backside. Of course this could change.

WX/PT

 

 

The position of the high is good, I'd expect we might see more a of a NE surface wind as well.

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If it played out exactly like this many would not like the result. Screaming easterly winds kill the BL after initially starting out frozen

Screaming east winds for 1-2 days would be a horrible scenario for the coastal areas-tons of water piled up and huge waves. Hopefully this is a more progressive storm in the end and doesn't stall out.

 

As for snow, if there's a screaming east wind it torches, almost guaranteed.

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Look at how much leftover energy there is at 144 hours at 500mb. Since that never really dropped in, this storm remains a Pacific entity and the cold air source gets cut off. If that were to fully drop in while the storm was going negative up the coast, this run would have been a lot colder.

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Screaming east winds for 1-2 days would be a horrible scenario for the coastal areas-tons of water piled up and huge waves. Hopefully this is a more progressive storm in the end and doesn't stall out.

 

As for snow, if there's a screaming east wind it torches, almost guaranteed.

Jim..guaranteed?..I mean come on..the GFS didn't have this storm yesterday..I doubt this will be the outcome..we could probably zone in on temps by Monday

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Screaming east winds for 1-2 days would be a horrible scenario for the coastal areas-tons of water piled up and huge waves. Hopefully this is a more progressive storm in the end and doesn't stall out.

 

As for snow, if there's a screaming east wind it torches, almost guaranteed.

 

As is, the gfs would be a lose-lose scenario for most. Not enough cold for snow or a snow to heavy wind driven rain and dangerous wind and coastal flooding for the still many vulnerable coastal areas post Sandy. 

 

Looks like a mix between Dec 1992 and March 1962. 

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Jim..guaranteed?..I mean come on..the GFS didn't have this storm yesterday..I doubt this will be the outcome..we could probably zone in on temps by Monday

I'm not saying this is the outcome, I'm only going on what the GFS showed. I wouldn't be hugely concerned about an outcome for another few days, maybe by Monday. But if that scenario played out, it would be a nightmare for the coast. The Euro's solution last night would be very concerning as well. Beaches around here are still extremely vulnerable and would be able to take less of a pounding than usual-and this outcome would essentially be another 12/11/92. And yes, snowlovers on the coast would hate it as well.

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Jim..guaranteed?..I mean come on..the GFS didn't have this storm yesterday..I doubt this will be the outcome..we could probably zone in on temps by Monday

I agree with this. Do not hug this one run of the GFS. It could be close to what really happens, totally different, or somewhat different. There will be changes yet to come most likely.

WX/PT

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I'm not saying this is the outcome, I'm only going on what the GFS showed. I wouldn't be hugely concerned about an outcome for another few days, maybe by Monday. But if that scenario played out, it would be a nightmare for the coast. The Euro's solution last night would be very concerning as well. Beaches around here are still extremely vulnerable and would be able to take less of a pounding than usual-and this outcome would essentially be another 12/11/92. And yes, snowlovers on the coast would hate it as well.

totally agree..southshore does not need this!

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