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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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Walt Drag special 12PM update!

**POWERFUL SLOW SEAWARD MOVING COASTAL STORM IS THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD**

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH SOME OF OUR
INTENT AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. WE'LL UPDATE THAT PRODUCT
AGAIN AT 330 PM.

THIS AFD PRODUCT WILL UPDATE AGAIN BETWEEN 330 PM AND 4 PM AS TIME
AVAILS.

IF WE ISSUE WATCHES...THEY WILL POST BY 330 PM.

500 MB: A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE TUE EVENING IN CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES TO NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA MIDDAY WEDNESDAY
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...IT WEAKENS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH RIDGING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COMPLICATIONS IN
THE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE 00Z/4 ECMWF TRYING TO CUT A STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT ALL SMOOTHS OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST FROM THE
PLAINS STATES.

HAZARDS:

TO PREFACE THE DIRECTION WE ARE GOING... THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY NOT
BE STELLAR INSIDE OF DAY 5...SINCE THE SANDY EVENT FOR OUR AREA... AND
IN MY OPINION...AT LEAST FOR THIS AREA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES
AS WELL AS THE SREF ARE BETTER PREDICTORS FOR OUR WEATHER. THAT
SAID... I AM EXPECTING THE ECMWF TO TREND NORTH IN FUTURE CYCLES
AND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING WHAT SHOULD
BE A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM FOR OUR AREA AND GOOD FORTUNE THAT ITS
NOT STALLING A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR COAST. THE 12Z UKMET HAS EDGED
NORTH.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH PROBABLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CERTAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR WITH A NORTHEAST
SWELL WIND WAVE OF AT LEAST 10 TO 15 FEET. MORE DETAILS ARE IN
THE TIDE SECTION.

HIGH WIND: DATA INCONSISTENTLY POINTS TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
AT TIMES EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE COASTS...MODELS FOCUSING ON DIFFERENT AREAS.
EITHER VIA SUSTAINED (35 KTS) OR GUST (50KTS) WE THINK HIGH WIND
HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING FOR A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY.

SNOW: THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET ABOVE FREEZING
INCLUDING MAX WET BULBS NEAR 2C IN THE LOWEST 0-6KM ON BOTH THE
NAM/GFS WERE PRECLUDING MUCH ACCUM DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WED
WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION BEING ELEVATIONS OF KPHL OUT TO KRDG.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM HAS COOLED A BIT...AND WE MAY HAVE A
DIFFERENT OUTCOME DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS....ESPECIALLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. FOR NOW... THERE CAN BE A SMALL
ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO 8 AM WEST AND SW OF KPHL. THERE WILL BE GOOD
DENDRITIC GROWTH DURING THE DAY BUT WHETHER ITS WASHED AWAY BY
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

THE GREATER CONCERN IS FOR ACCUMULATIVE WET SNOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING IF THERE IS ANY BACKLASH. ITS EARLY TO BE
CONFIDENT ON BACKLASH SNOW... DECENT BANDING WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SLOW MOVING CYCLONE WITH A BENT
BACK THERMAL MID LEVEL FEATURE. 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WOULD NOT
ONLY BE A TRAVEL REMOVAL HAZARD BUT ALSO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
POWER OUTAGES. FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR.

WE MAY ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCHES AT 330 PM TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A
POSSIBLE HEAVY WET SNOW IN SOME AREAS.

AS FAR THE DAILY DETAILS...

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE ENERGY POURED INTO THE FCST GRIDS BEYOND
THURSDAY...RELYING SOLELY ON THE 15Z/4 HPC GRIDDED FORECAST
GUIDANCE...UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

OTHERWISE WE WILL UPDATE THE DETAILS HEREIN AROUND 330 PM.
 

2008-2009 snowfall 31.3
2009-2010 snowfall 61.9

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That dosen't make sense...  Most likely the clown maps assuming that if it's not 32, it dosen't snow, although as we all know that's not the case.

-skisheep

 

 

It doesnt make sense period. Even for NYC on the euro, the temps fall to 33-34 degrees and that's without the heavy precip the GFS/GGEM/JMA have.

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It doesnt make sense period. Even for NYC on the euro, the temps fall to 33-34 degrees and that's without the heavy precip the GFS/GGEM/JMA have.

Let's not take any snow maps verbatim right now, they're computer generated and not entirely accurate.

With that said, taking a blend of the models and accounting for lost qpf due to warmth/rain/slop, 3-5" is a good starting point right now area-wide. Can adjust up or down as things hopefully get clearer tonight into tomorrow 

 

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

CTZ007>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-051100-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-
EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
151 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE EXACT DEALS OF HOW THIS STORM
WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR:

* SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.
* WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

* MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
  * HIGH SURF AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG THE OCEAN FACING
   BEACHES AND TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.

THESE IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEE THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-051100-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
151 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DIMINISHING
TO GALES FOR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

 

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