sn0w Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 fwiw, euro snow maps show about 2-3" snow over central NJ. nothing farther north. . Orange should be all snow, and is solid advisory on the EURO -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Walt Drag special 12PM update!**POWERFUL SLOW SEAWARD MOVING COASTAL STORM IS THE PRIMARYINFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD**THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH SOME OF OURINTENT AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. WE'LL UPDATE THAT PRODUCTAGAIN AT 330 PM.THIS AFD PRODUCT WILL UPDATE AGAIN BETWEEN 330 PM AND 4 PM AS TIMEAVAILS.IF WE ISSUE WATCHES...THEY WILL POST BY 330 PM.500 MB: A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE TUE EVENING IN CENTEREDOVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES TO NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA MIDDAY WEDNESDAYTHEN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W MIDDAYTHURSDAY. THEREAFTER...IT WEAKENS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH RIDGINGOVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COMPLICATIONS INTHE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITEDSTATES WITH THE 00Z/4 ECMWF TRYING TO CUT A STRONG SHORTWAVESOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IT ALL SMOOTHS OUT EARLYNEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST FROM THEPLAINS STATES.HAZARDS:TO PREFACE THE DIRECTION WE ARE GOING... THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY NOTBE STELLAR INSIDE OF DAY 5...SINCE THE SANDY EVENT FOR OUR AREA... ANDIN MY OPINION...AT LEAST FOR THIS AREA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLESAS WELL AS THE SREF ARE BETTER PREDICTORS FOR OUR WEATHER. THATSAID... I AM EXPECTING THE ECMWF TO TREND NORTH IN FUTURE CYCLESAND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING WHAT SHOULDBE A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM FOR OUR AREA AND GOOD FORTUNE THAT ITSNOT STALLING A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR COAST. THE 12Z UKMET HAS EDGEDNORTH.COASTAL FLOOD WATCH PROBABLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.CERTAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR WITH A NORTHEASTSWELL WIND WAVE OF AT LEAST 10 TO 15 FEET. MORE DETAILS ARE INTHE TIDE SECTION.HIGH WIND: DATA INCONSISTENTLY POINTS TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDSAT TIMES EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAYNIGHT ALONG THE COASTS...MODELS FOCUSING ON DIFFERENT AREAS.EITHER VIA SUSTAINED (35 KTS) OR GUST (50KTS) WE THINK HIGH WINDHAS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING FOR A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY.SNOW: THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET ABOVE FREEZINGINCLUDING MAX WET BULBS NEAR 2C IN THE LOWEST 0-6KM ON BOTH THENAM/GFS WERE PRECLUDING MUCH ACCUM DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDWITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION BEING ELEVATIONS OF KPHL OUT TO KRDG.HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM HAS COOLED A BIT...AND WE MAY HAVE ADIFFERENT OUTCOME DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS....ESPECIALLY WEST ANDSOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. FOR NOW... THERE CAN BE A SMALLACCUMULATION PRIOR TO 8 AM WEST AND SW OF KPHL. THERE WILL BE GOODDENDRITIC GROWTH DURING THE DAY BUT WHETHER ITS WASHED AWAY BYBOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S REMAINS TO BE SEEN.THE GREATER CONCERN IS FOR ACCUMULATIVE WET SNOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHTAND THURSDAY MORNING IF THERE IS ANY BACKLASH. ITS EARLY TO BECONFIDENT ON BACKLASH SNOW... DECENT BANDING WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTSIDE OF THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SLOW MOVING CYCLONE WITH A BENTBACK THERMAL MID LEVEL FEATURE. 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WOULD NOTONLY BE A TRAVEL REMOVAL HAZARD BUT ALSO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FORPOWER OUTAGES. FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE AMOUNTS WILLOCCUR.WE MAY ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCHES AT 330 PM TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR APOSSIBLE HEAVY WET SNOW IN SOME AREAS.AS FAR THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE ENERGY POURED INTO THE FCST GRIDS BEYONDTHURSDAY...RELYING SOLELY ON THE 15Z/4 HPC GRIDDED FORECASTGUIDANCE...UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.OTHERWISE WE WILL UPDATE THE DETAILS HEREIN AROUND 330 PM. 2008-2009 snowfall 31.32009-2010 snowfall 61.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That dosen't make sense... Most likely the clown maps assuming that if it's not 32, it dosen't snow, although as we all know that's not the case. -skisheep It doesnt make sense period. Even for NYC on the euro, the temps fall to 33-34 degrees and that's without the heavy precip the GFS/GGEM/JMA have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It doesnt make sense period. Even for NYC on the euro, the temps fall to 33-34 degrees and that's without the heavy precip the GFS/GGEM/JMA have. Let's not take any snow maps verbatim right now, they're computer generated and not entirely accurate. With that said, taking a blend of the models and accounting for lost qpf due to warmth/rain/slop, 3-5" is a good starting point right now area-wide. Can adjust up or down as things hopefully get clearer tonight into tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It doesnt make sense period. Even for NYC on the euro, the temps fall to 33-34 degrees and that's without the heavy precip the GFS/GGEM/JMA have. If it's 33-34 it's probably snow but not accumulating (maybe on grass) if it's daylight and light-moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY151 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013CTZ007>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-051100-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-151 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERNCONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.FORECAST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE EXACT DEALS OF HOW THIS STORMWILL EVOLVE...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR:* SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.* WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.* MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. * HIGH SURF AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG THE OCEAN FACING BEACHES AND TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.THESE IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.SEE THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.&&THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIALWIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNINGCRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES INEFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWSWARNING CRITERIA.$$ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-051100-LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-151 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DIMINISHINGTO GALES FOR FRIDAY..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.&&THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIALWIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNINGCRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES INEFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWSWARNING CRITERIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 March 6,2001 and now March 6,2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If it's 33-34 it's probably snow but not accumulating (maybe on grass) if it's daylight and light-moderate. from hr 60-72 (7pm-7am) whatever is falling is with the sun-down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 March 6,2001 and now March 6,2013 with the exact opposite model trend ftw lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No matter how much snow we get, it's clear this is trending towards becoming a major storm in other aspects such as wind and coastal flooding.. will be exciting to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39589-significant-ocean-storm-march-5-7-2013-discussion-part-ii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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