jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The sounding off the euro are a lot colder then the gfs. This makes 4 runs in a row that the gfs and it ens have agree on a hit. Hard to ignore that That's a good sign-gives me confidence that the GFS was too warm and definitely the GGEM. Euro usually does considerably better when resolving temps due to its finer resolution. It was a little too cold for the 2/8 blizzard but was closer to reality than the other models, esp. the GFS which was considerably too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This seems to be one of the storms that goes down to the wire.... The trend at 12z seemed pretty clear to bring this north and west. If it doesn't reverse at 0z I'd be pretty confident that we get at least a good swipe, question is more rain vs. snow. And also the coastal impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The actual position of the low on the Euro is similar to the GFS. The GFS has a stronger system and a more expansive precip shield. The Euro also is more progressive and doesn't stall it out like the GFS shows. No it isn't. The GFS (blue) remains well northwest of the last two Euro runs (black and red). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We finally have the gfs consistent with bringing a storm into the area.whuch is something we havent had all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 "Wxrisk Euro stays South keep dreaming NYC, CT" Ehhhh crack kills... I mean we aren't talking a full on shift to the GFS but its pretty apparent things are heading that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yup not one GFS ensemble is a miss, 12/12 is impressive, and it has been the model leading all the rest with this one (at least to this point)...Graphic is in the NE forum if one wants to see for themselves... Waiting for the clown maps to update on the individual members but many of them actually show massive hits for New England and warning criteria snows NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 OK, this is a bold call, but I'm tossing the EURO. It did what it needed to do, which was come a huge amount north towards the GFS. This, combined with the GFS being locked in, every single one of it's ensembles being onboard(12 for 12 is not exactly common...)and the EURO never making the sort of massive shifts that the GFS does, is enough to convince me to toss it, it's got the right idea going north, it's not north enough though I think. I think the GFS is overdone on QPF, but I think many on this forum are heading for a solid advisory event, and I think even a decent shot at warning. The fact that EURO is colder is a good thing, it's usually much closer to reality temp wise than GFS, which is often too warm, plus, with the GFS, the precip rates will be heavy enough to overcome the melt. I think 0z EURO will tell us all we need to know. If I had to go on TV, this is not what I'd forecast, but I think it's becoming much more likely that the GFS is on to something... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No it isn't. The GFS (blue) remains well northwest of the last two Euro runs (black and red). gfseurocompare.png I should have noted that I meant while the low was exiting the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well Being that the GFS and its Ens are hits and Euro took a big step Towards GFS and dare I say it the JMA I think this one "might" trend in right Direction tonight into tomorrow. If GFS still looks good at 18 and 0z and some of the other Models also look good many will be waiting up with Bated Breath tonight as I think there is chance Euro would go all in. I know many rather have Euro and Other Models Showing Bombs for a week straight but that is rare I much rather it Trend better and better as we get closer and closer than show dream scenario 5 days out and HOPE it holds when usually it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm still more concerned about the winds along the coast compared to anything else if the storm tracks farther north like the GFS or some of the SREF members. Some of the model runs have very strong sustained northeast winds along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What caused the precip shield to expand on the euro? Was it just the jump north? Or is there less confluence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What caused the precip shield to expand on the euro? Was it just the jump north? Or is there less confluence? Less confluent flow initially, interaction with the remnants of the NW Atlantic ULL, and northern stream interaction from a vort over the Lakes allowed for better jet structure and expansion of precip shield that wouldve otherwise been shunted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 OK, this is a bold call, but I'm tossing the EURO. It did what it needed to do, which was come a huge amount north towards the GFS. This, combined with the GFS being locked in, every single one of it's ensembles being onboard(12 for 12 is not exactly common...)and the EURO never making the sort of massive shifts that the GFS does, is enough to convince me to toss it, it's got the right idea going north, it's not north enough though I think. I think the GFS is overdone on QPF, but I think many on this forum are heading for a solid advisory event, and I think even a decent shot at warning. The fact that EURO is colder is a good thing, it's usually much closer to reality temp wise than GFS, which is often too warm, plus, with the GFS, the precip rates will be heavy enough to overcome the melt. I think 0z EURO will tell us all we need to know. If I had to go on TV, this is not what I'd forecast, but I think it's becoming much more likely that the GFS is on to something... -skisheep I wouldn't toss it but maybe make a Compromise as of now with GFS and Euro. Also Have a sneaky Feeling Euro is not done trending North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 OK, this is a bold call, but I'm tossing the EURO. It did what it needed to do, which was come a huge amount north towards the GFS. This, combined with the GFS being locked in, every single one of it's ensembles being onboard(12 for 12 is not exactly common...)and the EURO never making the sort of massive shifts that the GFS does, is enough to convince me to toss it, it's got the right idea going north, it's not north enough though I think. I think the GFS is overdone on QPF, but I think many on this forum are heading for a solid advisory event, and I think even a decent shot at warning. The fact that EURO is colder is a good thing, it's usually much closer to reality temp wise than GFS, which is often too warm, plus, with the GFS, the precip rates will be heavy enough to overcome the melt. I think 0z EURO will tell us all we need to know. If I had to go on TV, this is not what I'd forecast, but I think it's becoming much more likely that the GFS is on to something... -skisheep I think if you're a TV met you have to go with a rain/snow mix for the city and snow west of the city. Rain for the south shore of Long Island. Everyone ending as a period of wet snow. I could see Mt. Holly going with a watch as far north as Morris County. I wouldn't blame Upton for holding out until the 00z cycle but watches, especially for Suffolk, Weschester, Rockland Counties and up into there CT Zones wouldn't shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm still more concerned about the winds along the coast compared to anything else if the storm tracks farther north like the GFS or some of the SREF members. Some of the model runs have very strong sustained northeast winds along the coast. Not good for N Shore of LI and the NJ coast for sure. Hopefully S Shore of LI escapes the coastal flooding due to wind direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm still more concerned about the winds along the coast compared to anything else if the storm tracks farther north like the GFS or some of the SREF members. Some of the model runs have very strong sustained northeast winds along the coast. That's definitely what I'm concerned about as well. The NE wind should hopefully stave off any serious coastal flooding, but there will still be major erosion from waves. The earlier stall and phase scenarios from a couple of days ago were extremely ominous because an east wind would have piled much more water into NY Harbor and the coastal bays. If the winds are from a NE direction it's usually not terrible here with flooding. The longevity of the strong winds though will certainly mean a battering for the beaches when they least need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That's definitely what I'm concerned about as well. The NE wind should hopefully stave off any serious coastal flooding, but there will still be major erosion from waves. The earlier stall and phase scenarios from a couple of days ago were extremely ominous because an east wind would have piled much more water into NY Harbor and the coastal bays. If the winds are from a NE direction it's usually not terrible here with flooding. The longevity of the strong winds though will certainly mean a battering for the beaches when they least need it. It may not be that terrible for the NY beaches but the Jersey shore would take a beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Winds are going to be NE to N (not E/SE) for the most part since the storm is pretty well to our SE..which is not as bad for S S LI, NJ, NYC..not the same trajectory as Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just curious, forget liquid or frozen, what do the models show for QPF for KNYC and KJFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think if you're a TV met you have to go with a rain/snow mix for the city and snow west of the city. Rain for the south shore of Long Island. Everyone ending as a period of wet snow. I could see Mt. Holly going with a watch as far north as Morris County. I wouldn't blame Upton for holding out until the 00z cycle but watches, especially for Suffolk, Weschester, Rockland Counties and up into there CT Zones wouldn't shock me. Makes sense, although I think that you also have to go snow for Westchester and CT counties, at least mostly. I think upton goes watch for Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and all the CT counties, LI is left out for now, although they could be added in if the EURO continues to trend(think temps might be an issue there...) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just curious, forget liquid or frozen, what do the models show for QPF for KNYC and KJFK? euro is about 0.75 for both, more for JFK and GFS is around an inch also more for JFK (1.1ish) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It may not be that terrible for the NY beaches but the Jersey shore would take a beating. It would be worse for them, but a NE wind isn't quite as bad as a due east or SE wind like we saw with Sandy. The duration of those winds could definitely pile up water and make for huge waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just curious, forget liquid or frozen, what do the models show for QPF for KNYC and KJFK? LGA: .45" JFK: .53" ISP: .66" BDR: .53" BOS: .70" ABE: .16" PHL: .63" ACY: .95" DCA: 1.21" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Makes sense, although I think that you also have to go snow for Westchester and CT counties, at least mostly. I think upton goes watch for Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and all the CT counties, LI is left out for now, although they could be added in if the EURO continues to trend(think temps might be an issue there...) -skisheep I did go mostly snow for those areas. I left out Orange because of lack of QPF. You could also add Western Passaic and Western Bergen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 LGA: .45" JFK: .53" ISP: .66" BDR: .53" BOS: .70" ABE: .16" PHL: .63" ACY: .95" DCA: 1.21" thats weird...is that through 114? bc precip continues...even if it doesn't add up to much. SV accum maps through 114 show 0.75 line cutting through the city (eastern parts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 thats weird...is that through 114? bc precip continues...even if it doesn't add up to much Im adding the total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 fwiw, euro snow maps show about 2-3" snow over central NJ. nothing farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 JMA total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I did go mostly snow for those areas. I left out Orange because of lack of QPF. You could also add Western Passaic and Western Bergen. True, I don't know much about NJ wx compared tothe rest of Upton's area, but they should be good if westchester is. Orange should be all snow, and is solid advisory on the EURO, I say throw it in the watch, it can always be downgraded to advisory if needed. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 fwiw, euro snow maps show about 2-3" snow over central NJ. nothing farther north. That dosen't make sense... Most likely the clown maps assuming that if it's not 32, it dosen't snow, although as we all know that's not the case. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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