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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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The sounding off the euro are a lot colder then the gfs.

This makes 4 runs in a row that the gfs and it ens have agree on a hit. Hard to ignore that

That's a good sign-gives me confidence that the GFS was too warm and definitely the GGEM. Euro usually does considerably better when resolving temps due to its finer resolution. It was a little too cold for the 2/8 blizzard but was closer to reality than the other models, esp. the GFS which was considerably too warm.

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This seems to be one of the storms that goes down to the wire....

The trend at 12z seemed pretty clear to bring this north and west. If it doesn't reverse at 0z I'd be pretty confident that we get at least a good swipe, question is more rain vs. snow. And also the coastal impacts.

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The actual position of the low on the Euro is similar to the GFS. The GFS has a stronger system and a more expansive precip shield. The Euro also is more progressive and doesn't stall it out like the GFS shows.

 

No it isn't. The GFS (blue) remains well northwest of the last two Euro runs (black and red).

 

post-6-0-17067400-1362421580_thumb.png

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Yup not one GFS ensemble is a miss, 12/12 is impressive, and it has been the model leading all the rest with this one (at least to this point)...Graphic is in the NE forum if one wants to see for themselves...

Waiting for the clown maps to update on the individual members but many of them actually show massive hits for New England and warning criteria snows NW of the city.

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OK, this is a bold call, but I'm tossing the EURO. It did what it needed to do, which was come a huge amount north towards the GFS. This, combined with the GFS being locked in, every single one of it's ensembles being onboard(12 for 12 is not exactly common...)and the EURO never making the sort of massive shifts that the GFS does, is enough to convince me to toss it, it's got the right idea going north, it's not north enough though I think. I think the GFS is overdone on QPF, but I think many on this forum are heading for a solid advisory event, and I think even a decent shot at warning.  The fact that EURO is colder is a good thing, it's usually much closer to reality temp wise than GFS, which is often too warm, plus, with the GFS, the precip rates will be heavy enough to overcome the melt. I think 0z EURO will tell us all we need to know. If I had to go on TV, this is not what I'd forecast, but I think it's becoming much more likely that the GFS is on to something...

 

-skisheep

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Well Being that the GFS and its Ens are hits and Euro took a big step Towards GFS and dare I say it the JMA I think this one "might" trend in right Direction tonight into tomorrow. If GFS still looks good at 18 and 0z and some of the other Models also look good many will be waiting up with Bated Breath tonight as I think there is chance Euro would go all in. I know many rather have Euro and Other Models Showing Bombs for a week straight but that is rare I much rather it Trend better and better as we get closer and closer than show dream scenario 5 days out and HOPE it holds when usually it doesn't. 

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What caused the precip shield to expand on the euro? Was it just the jump north? Or is there less confluence?

 

Less confluent flow initially, interaction with the remnants of the NW Atlantic ULL, and northern stream interaction from a vort over the Lakes allowed for better jet structure and expansion of precip shield that wouldve otherwise been shunted south.

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OK, this is a bold call, but I'm tossing the EURO. It did what it needed to do, which was come a huge amount north towards the GFS. This, combined with the GFS being locked in, every single one of it's ensembles being onboard(12 for 12 is not exactly common...)and the EURO never making the sort of massive shifts that the GFS does, is enough to convince me to toss it, it's got the right idea going north, it's not north enough though I think. I think the GFS is overdone on QPF, but I think many on this forum are heading for a solid advisory event, and I think even a decent shot at warning.  The fact that EURO is colder is a good thing, it's usually much closer to reality temp wise than GFS, which is often too warm, plus, with the GFS, the precip rates will be heavy enough to overcome the melt. I think 0z EURO will tell us all we need to know. If I had to go on TV, this is not what I'd forecast, but I think it's becoming much more likely that the GFS is on to something...

 

-skisheep

 

I wouldn't toss it but maybe make a Compromise as of now with GFS and Euro. Also Have a sneaky Feeling Euro is not done trending North. 

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OK, this is a bold call, but I'm tossing the EURO. It did what it needed to do, which was come a huge amount north towards the GFS. This, combined with the GFS being locked in, every single one of it's ensembles being onboard(12 for 12 is not exactly common...)and the EURO never making the sort of massive shifts that the GFS does, is enough to convince me to toss it, it's got the right idea going north, it's not north enough though I think. I think the GFS is overdone on QPF, but I think many on this forum are heading for a solid advisory event, and I think even a decent shot at warning.  The fact that EURO is colder is a good thing, it's usually much closer to reality temp wise than GFS, which is often too warm, plus, with the GFS, the precip rates will be heavy enough to overcome the melt. I think 0z EURO will tell us all we need to know. If I had to go on TV, this is not what I'd forecast, but I think it's becoming much more likely that the GFS is on to something...

 

-skisheep

I think if you're a TV met you have to go with a rain/snow mix for the city and snow west of the city. Rain for the south shore of Long Island. Everyone ending as a period of wet snow. I could see Mt. Holly going with a watch as far north as Morris County. I wouldn't blame Upton for holding out until the 00z cycle but watches, especially for Suffolk, Weschester, Rockland Counties and up into there CT Zones wouldn't shock me.

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I'm still more concerned about the winds along the coast compared to anything else if the storm tracks farther north like the GFS or some of the SREF members. Some of the model runs have very strong sustained northeast winds along the coast.

 

wind60.gif

Not good for N Shore of LI and the NJ coast for sure.  Hopefully S Shore of LI escapes the coastal flooding due to wind direction!

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I'm still more concerned about the winds along the coast compared to anything else if the storm tracks farther north like the GFS or some of the SREF members. Some of the model runs have very strong sustained northeast winds along the coast.

 

wind60.gif

That's definitely what I'm concerned about as well. The NE wind should hopefully stave off any serious coastal flooding, but there will still be major erosion from waves. The earlier stall and phase scenarios from a couple of days ago were extremely ominous because an east wind would have piled much more water into NY Harbor and the coastal bays. If the winds are from a NE direction it's usually not terrible here with flooding. The longevity of the strong winds though will certainly mean a battering for the beaches when they least need it.

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That's definitely what I'm concerned about as well. The NE wind should hopefully stave off any serious coastal flooding, but there will still be major erosion from waves. The earlier stall and phase scenarios from a couple of days ago were extremely ominous because an east wind would have piled much more water into NY Harbor and the coastal bays. If the winds are from a NE direction it's usually not terrible here with flooding. The longevity of the strong winds though will certainly mean a battering for the beaches when they least need it.

It may not be that terrible for the NY beaches but the Jersey shore would take a beating.

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I think if you're a TV met you have to go with a rain/snow mix for the city and snow west of the city. Rain for the south shore of Long Island. Everyone ending as a period of wet snow. I could see Mt. Holly going with a watch as far north as Morris County. I wouldn't blame Upton for holding out until the 00z cycle but watches, especially for Suffolk, Weschester, Rockland Counties and up into there CT Zones wouldn't shock me.

Makes sense, although I think that you also have to go snow for Westchester and CT counties, at least mostly. I think upton goes watch for Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and all the CT counties, LI is left out for now, although they could be added in if the EURO continues to trend(think temps might be an issue there...)

-skisheep

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It may not be that terrible for the NY beaches but the Jersey shore would take a beating.

It would be worse for them, but a NE wind isn't quite as bad as a due east or SE wind like we saw with Sandy. The duration of those winds could definitely pile up water and make for huge waves.

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Makes sense, although I think that you also have to go snow for Westchester and CT counties, at least mostly. I think upton goes watch for Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and all the CT counties, LI is left out for now, although they could be added in if the EURO continues to trend(think temps might be an issue there...)

-skisheep

I did go mostly snow for those areas. I left out Orange because of lack of QPF. You could also add Western Passaic and Western Bergen.

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I did go mostly snow for those areas. I left out Orange because of lack of QPF. You could also add Western Passaic and Western Bergen.

True, I don't know much about NJ wx compared tothe rest of Upton's area, but they should be good if westchester is. Orange should be all snow, and is solid advisory on the EURO, I say throw it in the watch, it can always be downgraded to advisory if needed.

-skisheep

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