nyblizz44 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 A good bit farther north of last nights run through 48 hours. More interaction with both the remnant ULL over the NW Atlantic, and the northern stream vort over the Lakes. Not looking GFS-like just yet. But taking a moderate step in GFS direction will give more credence to GFS scenario correct? Mt Holly seems to think GFS will lead pack because of time frame we r in >5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ends up 50-75 miles NW of 00z...some very noticeable trends aloft...but not there yet. No accumulated precipitation north of Sandy Hook through 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 66 light snow for NYC. Preciep up to south coast of sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Light precip north of Philly at 54 hours..a nice tick north but it doesn't want to jump into the GFS boat yet it seems. That shortwave in Upstate NY has its own closed height contour, though at 54 hours. I found that encouraging. But yeah, this run won't be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 finally gets precip in here by 66. 0.1-0.25. Precip looks like its ongoing so it'll probably be close to a NAM solution in terms of precip amounts for NYC metro. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The precipitation shield actually expands post 60 hrs. Light precipitation up to NYC by 66 hours with the storm hundreds of miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I wouldn't be suprised to see watches go up this afternoon, it's 48 hours away, and the fact that the EURO just took a large jump towards the GFS cannot be denied... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 72 light qpf moving out. Looks cold enough for snow wed night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is a pretty big improvement. One more improvement of this magnitude and we get ourselves a GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The precipitation shield actually expands post 60 hrs. Light precipitation up to NYC by 66 hours with the storm hundreds of miles offshore. Definitely a sign of an improved northern stream, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I wouldn't be suprised to see watches go up this afternoon, it's 48 hours away, and the fact that the EURO just took a large jump towards the GFS cannot be denied... -skisheep Agreed on the fact that it took a huge step towards the GFS is encourgaging. I can definitely see it trend more NW to give us something more substantial but prob not what the GFS shows. I think the outcome for this storm will be between the GFS and EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 .5 gets to sandy hook and .25 way north of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 end result is 0.25-0.5 for a large portion of the area. Not a cave to the GFS but pretty darn close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 .5 gets to sandy hook and .25 way north of nyc oh wow didnt realize it was that much of an improvement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Most likely advisory level snows NYC and points East. A really nice hit for S. Jersey and PHL. Everywhere seems to get really nice snow this season except for NYC. We're just this season's screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thats 100 mile shift inside 12 hrs , very good move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Every 12z GFS ensemble memeber is a hit . 12 FOR 12 . I cant post , if someone wants to .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z GEFS members. There are 0 misses. WoW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thats 100 mile shift inside 12 hrs , very good move I think the trend n and w might not be done. We'll see tonight. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol euro has more precip backing in at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Good trend overall on the Euro. The increased northern stream involvement and bending back of the flow to allow a left turn could enable yet more precip making it up here in later runs. Question is the temp-we need good and heavy precip to ensure that it's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol euro has more precip backing in at 102 Not surprised at all, GFS did this too. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think the trend n and w might not be done. We'll see tonight. WX/PT It's def more then just "noise" now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yup not one GFS ensemble is a miss, 12/12 is impressive, and it has been the model leading all the rest with this one (at least to this point)...Graphic is in the NE forum if one wants to see for themselves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 more at 108...close to another 0.1 for the city. Likely not accumulating slop as depicted but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z GEFS members. There are 0 misses. WoW. New king in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This seems to be one of the storms that goes down to the wire.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The sounding off the euro are a lot colder then the gfs. This makes 4 runs in a row that the gfs and it ens have agree on a hit. Hard to ignore that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 all told after the the light stuff finally exits at 114, the 0.75 line gets to the eastern parts of queens and brooklyn. This from 0.1 just 12 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The actual position of the low on the Euro is similar to the GFS. The GFS has a stronger system and a more expansive precip shield. The Euro also is more progressive and doesn't stall it out like the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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