friedmators Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 KEWR Hour / Highest Level > 0C / Precip 54 / 941mb / .128 57 / 940mb / .142 60 / 928mb / .121 63 / 952mb / .093 66 / 978mb / .089 69 / 991 / .100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am going to make a gutsy call and say the EURO comes north... It seems to be a southern outlier at this point but if we don't see it trend north it is not good for the tristate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am going to make a gutsy call and say the EURO comes north... It seems to be a southern outlier at this point but if we don't see it trend north it is not good for the tristate area. I feel it's going to come north too and then this forum will go crazy with projected snowfall guesses ranging from 1 to 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am going to make a gutsy call and say the EURO comes north... It seems to be a southern outlier at this point but if we don't see it trend north it is not good for the tristate area. And just cuz the euro doesnt show a northern trend its bad for us? makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Mt Holly TO PREFACE THE DIRECTION WE ARE GOING... THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY NOTBE STELLAR INSIDE OF DAY 5...SINCE THE SANDY EVENT FOR OUR AREA... ANDIN MY OPINION...AT LEAST FOR THIS AREA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLESAS WELL AS THE SREF ARE BETTER PREDICTORS FOR OUR WEATHER. THATSAID... I AM EXPECTING THE ECMWF TO TREND NORTH IN FUTURE CYCLESAND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING WHAT SHOULDBE A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM FOR OUR AREA AND GOOD FORTUNE THAT ITSNOT STALLING A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR COAST. THE 12Z UKMET HAS EDGEDNORTH.HIGH WIND: DATA INCONSISTENTLY POINTS TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDSAT TIMES EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAYNIGHT ALONG THE COASTS...MODELS FOCUSING ON DIFFERENT AREAS.EITHER VIA SUSTAINED (35 KTS) OR GUST (50KTS) WE THINK HIGH WINDHAS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING FOR A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY.SNOW: THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET ABOVE FREEZINGINCLUDING MAX WET BULBS NEAR 2C IN THE LOWEST 0-6KM ON BOTH THENAM/GFS WERE PRECLUDING MUCH ACCUM DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDWITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION BEING ELEVATIONS OF KPHL OUT TO KRDG.HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM HAS COOLED A BIT...AND WE MAY HAVE ADIFFERENT OUTCOME DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS....ESPECIALLY WEST ANDSOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. FOR NOW... THERE CAN BE A SMALLACCUMULATION PRIOR TO 8 AM WEST AND SW OF KPHL. THERE WILL BE GOODDENDRITIC GROWTH DURING THE DAY BUT WHETHER ITS WASHED AWAY BYBOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S REMAINS TO BE SEEN.THE GREATER CONCERN IS FOR ACCUMULATIVE WET SNOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHTAND THURSDAY MORNING IF THERE IS ANY BACKLASH. ITS EARLY TO BECONFIDENT ON BACKLASH SNOW... DECENT BANDING WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTSIDE OF THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SLOW MOVING CYCLONE WITH A BENTBACK THERMAL MID LEVEL FEATURE. 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WOULD NOTONLY BE A TRAVEL REMOVAL HAZARD BUT ALSO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FORPOWER OUTAGES. FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE AMOUNTS WILLOCCUR.WE MAY ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCHES AT 330 PM TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR APOSSIBLE HEAVY WET SNOW IN SOME AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 KEWR Hour / Highest Level > 0C / Precip 54 / 941mb / .128 57 / 940mb / .142 60 / 928mb / .121 63 / 952mb / .093 66 / 978mb / .089 69 / 991 / .100 How far above zero though? Is it say, +1 to +3, or is it + only between maybe 0 and 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I feel it's going to come north too and then this forum will go crazy with projected snowfall guesses ranging from 1 to 2 feet. Well I wouldn't go that far but I'd say if it did a moderate to possibly significant certainly isn't out of question. We really need the CCB to set up shop over us to get the dynamic cooling especially along the coast and city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well I wouldn't go that far but I'd say if it did a moderate to possibly significant certainly isn't out of question. We really need the CCB to set up shop over us to get the dynamic cooling especially along the coast and city. there really isn't a chance for that to happen here unless all the dynamical events (phasing , stalling) occur sooner or closer to us. Even then I doubt anyone of sound mental state will be throwing around 1ft plus. Right now we should be guarded with our expectations there is just huge bust potential with this either way. Wow that sounds a lot like a post I made roughly one month ago to the day. Hope the outcome is similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 so the first question is this north trend for real per GFS ect. and if it is will it trend colder over the next day or so ? It would be a real kick in the sack if this did trend wetter for the tri -state only to see it be mostly rain. Seems like alot of Questions only 48 hours before an event but I guess that is the inconstancy of the models along with the questionable climate in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 there really isn't a chance for that to happen here unless all the dynamical events (phasing , stalling) occur sooner or closer to us. Even then I doubt anyone of sound mental state will be throwing around 1ft plus. Right now we should be guarded with our expectations there is just huge bust potential with this either way. Wow that sounds a lot like a post I made roughly one month ago to the day. Hope the outcome is similar The pattern is ripe for it for our area. It is like you said, all the players accordingly must just respond to the pattern that is laying before our feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UKMET 0z vs 12z (north shift for the usually suppressed UKMET) 12Z http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif 00Z http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think the weenies will be rejoicing in a few mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ukie looks like 0.3-0.4 for NYC south and east. Still huge shift north. Expect the EURO to cave, but you never know I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How far above zero though? Is it say, +1 to +3, or is it + only between maybe 0 and 1. Minimal at that level, but everything to the ground is above as well. Hour 66 970 / -.1 978 / .3 985 /.8 992 / 1.1 997 / 1.4 I just can't qualify what this means. The snow has about 1000 feet of travel left to the ground when the freezing level is breached. How much above zero I guess will determine what actually hits the ground but I am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Mt Holly Another excellent discussion by Mt Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 JMA critical thicknesses to correspond to that map..very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 well that all about clears it up...wow. Obviously that was tongue in cheek it does nothing to clear it up but shows a pretty (unsurprising based on last night) sweet depiction JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 JMA Wow, massive hit for sure. Proabably the best hit we've seen by any model yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 critical thicknesses to correspond to that map..very close. I was just going to post this. Marginal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No major differences on the Euro through 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am going to make a gutsy call and say the EURO comes north... It seems to be a southern outlier at this point but if we don't see it trend north it is not good for the tristate area. I feel it's going to come north too and then this forum will go crazy with projected snowfall guesses ranging from 1 to 2 feet. Flawless meteorological reasoning, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Quite possibly the most important euro run of the season is upon us ! Let the snow gods burry us ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 IMO, if we get minimal QPF that falls during the day in an overrunning manner it will be light rain/wet snow that doesnt accumulate, if we get precip that matters (0.5"-0.75"+) especially at night its accumulating snow....so Im not worried about precip type per say as if we get into good precip, its snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The upper level low over the NW Atlantic is a hair farther north and weaker so far through 24 hours. Could help the height rise later as the shortwave approaches the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The upper level low over the NW Atlantic is a hair farther north and weaker so far through 24 hours. Could help the height rise later as the shortwave approaches the coast. I have been stating for days the negative impact for our area of that ULL is being overdone on the models. We'll see. Through 36 on the Euro, hearing more northern stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Once again very significant changes on the Euro through only 36 hours. This looks better oriented for us in almost all regards. But I still think it will tick north, not make a big jump towards the GFS. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Once again very significant changes on the Euro through only 36 hours. This looks better oriented for us in almost all regards. But I still think it will tick north, not make a big jump towards the GFS. We'll see. This is how I feel as well. That shortwave in the northeast is certainly more defined than the 00z Euro, but not like it was on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 A good bit farther north of last nights run through 48 hours. More interaction with both the remnant ULL over the NW Atlantic, and the northern stream vort over the Lakes. Not looking GFS-like just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Light precip north of Philly at 54 hours..a nice tick north but it doesn't want to jump into the GFS boat yet it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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