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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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I am going to make a gutsy call and say the EURO comes north... It seems to be a southern outlier at this point but if we don't see it trend north it is not good for the tristate area.

 

 

I feel it's going to come north too and then this forum will go crazy with projected snowfall guesses ranging from 1 to 2 feet.

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I am going to make a gutsy call and say the EURO comes north... It seems to be a southern outlier at this point but if we don't see it trend north it is not good for the tristate area.

And just cuz the euro doesnt show a northern trend its bad for us? makes sense.

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Mt Holly


TO PREFACE THE DIRECTION WE ARE GOING... THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY NOT
BE STELLAR INSIDE OF DAY 5...SINCE THE SANDY EVENT FOR OUR AREA... AND
IN MY OPINION...AT LEAST FOR THIS AREA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES
AS WELL AS THE SREF ARE BETTER PREDICTORS FOR OUR WEATHER. THAT
SAID... I AM EXPECTING THE ECMWF TO TREND NORTH IN FUTURE CYCLES
AND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING WHAT SHOULD
BE A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM FOR OUR AREA AND GOOD FORTUNE THAT ITS
NOT STALLING A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR COAST. THE 12Z UKMET HAS EDGED
NORTH.



HIGH WIND: DATA INCONSISTENTLY POINTS TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
AT TIMES EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE COASTS...MODELS FOCUSING ON DIFFERENT AREAS.
EITHER VIA SUSTAINED (35 KTS) OR GUST (50KTS) WE THINK HIGH WIND
HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING FOR A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY.

SNOW: THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET ABOVE FREEZING
INCLUDING MAX WET BULBS NEAR 2C IN THE LOWEST 0-6KM ON BOTH THE
NAM/GFS WERE PRECLUDING MUCH ACCUM DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WED
WITH POSSIBLY THE EXCEPTION BEING ELEVATIONS OF KPHL OUT TO KRDG.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM HAS COOLED A BIT...AND WE MAY HAVE A
DIFFERENT OUTCOME DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS....ESPECIALLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. FOR NOW... THERE CAN BE A SMALL
ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO 8 AM WEST AND SW OF KPHL. THERE WILL BE GOOD
DENDRITIC GROWTH DURING THE DAY BUT WHETHER ITS WASHED AWAY BY
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

THE GREATER CONCERN IS FOR ACCUMULATIVE WET SNOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING IF THERE IS ANY BACKLASH. ITS EARLY TO BE
CONFIDENT ON BACKLASH SNOW... DECENT BANDING WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SLOW MOVING CYCLONE WITH A BENT
BACK THERMAL MID LEVEL FEATURE. 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WOULD NOT
ONLY BE A TRAVEL REMOVAL HAZARD BUT ALSO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
POWER OUTAGES. FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR.

WE MAY ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCHES AT 330 PM TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A
POSSIBLE HEAVY WET SNOW IN SOME AREAS.
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KEWR

 

Hour / Highest Level > 0C  / Precip

 

54 / 941mb / .128

57 / 940mb / .142

60 / 928mb / .121

63 / 952mb / .093

66 / 978mb / .089

69 / 991 / .100

How far above zero though? Is it say, +1 to +3, or is it  + only between maybe 0 and 1.

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I feel it's going to come north too and then this forum will go crazy with projected snowfall guesses ranging from 1 to 2 feet.

Well I wouldn't go that far but I'd say if it did a moderate to possibly significant certainly isn't out of question. We really need the CCB to set up shop over us to get the dynamic cooling especially along the coast and city.

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Well I wouldn't go that far but I'd say if it did a moderate to possibly significant certainly isn't out of question. We really need the CCB to set up shop over us to get the dynamic cooling especially along the coast and city.

there really isn't a chance for that to happen here unless all the dynamical events (phasing , stalling) occur sooner or closer to us. Even then I doubt anyone of sound mental state will be throwing around 1ft plus. Right now we should be guarded with our expectations there is just huge bust potential with this either way. Wow that sounds a lot like a post I made roughly one month ago to the day. Hope the outcome is similar  :snowing:

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so the first question is this north trend for real per GFS ect. and if it is will it trend colder over the next day or so ? It would be a real kick in the sack if this did trend wetter for the tri -state only to see it be mostly rain. Seems like alot of Questions only 48 hours before an event but I guess that is the inconstancy of the models along with the questionable climate in early March.

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there really isn't a chance for that to happen here unless all the dynamical events (phasing , stalling) occur sooner or closer to us. Even then I doubt anyone of sound mental state will be throwing around 1ft plus. Right now we should be guarded with our expectations there is just huge bust potential with this either way. Wow that sounds a lot like a post I made roughly one month ago to the day. Hope the outcome is similar  :snowing:

The pattern is ripe for it for our area. It is like you said, all the players accordingly must just respond to the pattern that is laying before our feet.

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How far above zero though? Is it say, +1 to +3, or is it  + only between maybe 0 and 1.

Minimal at that level, but everything to the ground is above as well. 

 

Hour 66

 

970 / -.1

978 / .3

985 /.8

992 / 1.1

997 / 1.4

 

I just can't qualify what this means.  The snow has about 1000 feet of travel left to the ground when the freezing level is breached.  How much above zero I guess will determine what actually hits the ground but I am not sure.

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I am going to make a gutsy call and say the EURO comes north... It seems to be a southern outlier at this point but if we don't see it trend north it is not good for the tristate area.

 

 

I feel it's going to come north too and then this forum will go crazy with projected snowfall guesses ranging from 1 to 2 feet.

Flawless meteorological reasoning, lol...

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IMO, if we get minimal QPF that falls during the day in an overrunning manner it will be light rain/wet snow that doesnt accumulate, if we get precip that matters (0.5"-0.75"+) especially at night its accumulating snow....so Im not worried about precip type per say as if we get into good precip, its snow...

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The upper level low over the NW Atlantic is a hair farther north and weaker so far through 24 hours. Could help the height rise later as the shortwave approaches the coast.

I have been stating for days the negative impact for our area of that ULL is being overdone on the models. We'll see.

 

Through 36 on the Euro, hearing more northern stream interaction. 

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Once again very significant changes on the Euro through only 36 hours. This looks better oriented for us in almost all regards.

But I still think it will tick north, not make a big jump towards the GFS. We'll see.

This is how I feel as well. That shortwave in the northeast is certainly more defined than the 00z Euro, but not like it was on the GFS.

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