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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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The lighter orange surrounding LI and NYC is what qpf? And wht about the dark orange?

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There is about another tenth in NYC and LI... and maybe two tenths as you approach Boston at 174 hours, but I'm not cropping/uploading that image :lol:

 

Most of SE Jersey turns to rain on this run, verbatim. I'm not going to over analyze how much is rain vs snow for the borderline areas 6 days from the event, though. 

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Here's the thing...it does NOT move NE and out. It gets to above ACY and then drifts east slowly. CCB is still over NJ/ NYC/LI at 168 hr.

I was wondering about that, I'm pretty sure this thing is moving very slowly if it's truly cutoff. 

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The reason why this came so far north is because there was less blocking up north. I have noticed in the past that the models overdo the blocking 7+ days out. All the models came north at 0z.

You know, the H5 pattern at 144 with the trough/ULL itself reminded me not of 1993, but something else...

 

2001?

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This was a massive shift of 500 miles at least....one has to be a bit nervous as I noted hours ago...the NYC metro might get too much of what it asked for....north shift

The reason why this came so far north is because there was less blocking up north. I have noticed in the past that the models overdo the blocking 7+ days out. All the models came north at 0z.

 

2001?

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The reason why this came so far north is because there was less blocking up north. I have noticed in the past that the models overdo the blocking 7+ days out. All the models came north at 0z.

 

2001?

true...but lets see if this is a trend. because the past couple days the trend was to develop a stonger block each run and now all of the sudden it reverses.

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