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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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Hour 66 the low is about 150 miles SE of ACY moving eastward. Still light to moderate precip for everyone. The surface is cooling. Hr 69 sub 988 low heading towards the benchmark. Light precip back to the DE river. Moderate precip from about I-95 east. Heavy precip for the twin forks and eastern New England. Boston getting smoked.

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Wow, monster hit for NYC this run. CCB sits over the area as the low stalls and spins offshore. Very potent pressure gradient as well with the 552dm block over Quebec. 

So what are the snow amounts from NYC to Western Monmouth?

 

Rossi

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There is something to be said for the GFS's consistency. But unless the Euro caves next, it is basically setting itself up for an incredible embrassment or a much needed redemption.

Honestly if we don't get agreement from the Euro, its still hard to bet against the Euro. What I will give NCEP though, especially the GFS, as it continues to show that shortwave retrograding back into N NYS on 12z, being an American model and slightly better with those small disturbances I will lean some heavier weight towards NCEP. Like its been stated before, the block doesn't seem to be the issue here, if it was strictly that I would ride the Euro into the sunset. This case it looks like the small scale features, ie that shortwave, create enough of a split in the ULL to allow for very brief height rises on the EC, which allows the precip to barrel North and then likewise the N stream to phase. This is incredibly complex with the smaller players and I'm not convinced the Euro is seeing that, nor is it necessarily geared to. This may be why the North American models are picking up what the Euro isn't .

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