Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There is some taint at the end. But verbatim it is snow. Might not accumulate much verbatim. Lets iron out details of how this storm evolves before talking about rain vs snow and amounts. Verbatim while it was 0.5 for the city it is unlikely more than an inch or two of slop accumulated. With more dynamics and a closer or overhead Ccb this would be of no concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The p type maps I'm seeing show snow. Unfortunately, I'm going to be on the road for the next several hours, so except for a rest stop, I won't be here during the rest of the 12z suite. Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There is some taint at the end. But verbatim it is snow. Might not accumulate much verbatim. Lets iron out details of how this storm evolves before talking about rain vs snow and amounts. Verbatim while it was 0.5 for the city it is unlikely more than an inch or two of slop accumulated. With more dynamics and a closer or overhead Ccb this would be of no concern This run is very close to really CCBing is. Look at 700 and the omegas JUST offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There is some taint at the end. But verbatim it is snow. Might not accumulate much verbatim. We really need better dynamics than what the NAM is showing. People are getting all excited because it shows measurable precip getting into the area, when in fact the heaviest precip is still well south into the mid-atlantic. We might get "some" snow out of this but we're rapidly running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 850's are well southeast so many people are assuming it's snow. The surface is warm. Probably mid-30's which is likely why the clown maps aren't showing much. unless you get into the heavy precip..it's just a mix or rain,nothing to really cool the surface..and if light precip falls during the day in this setup with sun angle..forget it..It might snow,but won't stick..Euro is still way south which should put up red flags for even any precip getting this far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How are we out of time, do you know how many times the models screwed up under 2 days, ask some folks in SNE they know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is mostly snow on this run. It looks colder than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 unless you get into the heavy precip..it's just a mix or rain,nothing to really cool the surface..and if light precip falls during the day in this setup with sun angle..forget it..It might snow,but won't stick..Euro is still way south which should put up red flags for even any precip getting this far NAM shows the bulk of the precip coming in the evening hours to overnight so we should be ok in that aspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The p type maps I'm seeing show snow. Unfortunately, I'm going to be on the road for the next several hours, so except for a rest stop, I won't be here during the rest of the 12z suite. Good luck to all! Same here. 2.5 half days left to me is plenty of time. The Ccb like you said is just off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM snowfall maps show nothing even in the northwest suburbs..DC gets creamed,wish I was there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How are we out of time, do you know how many times the models screwed up under 2 days, ask some folks in SNE they know. We're not out of time, we're running out of time. If the Euro continues to hold serve it certainly continues to gain weight, although based on the changes last run this might come a hair north this run, but I wouldn't expect it to look like the GFS. Speaking of the GFS, hopefully we don't lose it coming up shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM snowfall maps show nothing even in the northwest suburbs..DC gets creamed,wish I was there The maps I have show 1-2" for the NW burbs. More than 30 miles NW of the city but it isn't much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is likely our last shot at snow until December so I'm def going to stay positive. A winter of close calls that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We are not even out of time who is to say that the Euro will not shift North. Euro isn't god. It hasn't been that great this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is likely our last shot at snow until December so I'm def going to stay positive. A winter of close calls that's for sure. If this ultimately misses if we had not gotten some good luck on that 2/8 event we might have seen DCA/BWI/BOS all with more snow than us for the winter, thats one you don't see too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We are not even out of time who is to say that the Euro will not shift North. Euro isn't god. It hasn't been that great this winter. No the Euro isn't God, but it's still a lot better than the GFS. It hasn't really budged in the last several days, I would be shocked to see a trend north at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No the Euro isn't God, but it's still a lot better than the GFS. It hasn't really budged in the last several days, I would be shocked to see a trend north at 1pm. How about if the GFS stays put? You can't just dismiss that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is likely our last shot at snow until December so I'm def going to stay positive. A winter of close calls that's for sure. Wrong another storm or two is possible with big block next week and well below normal temps. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's just so difficult to weight the NCEP guidance into a forecast at this range given the track record, especially when it comes to the precipitation shields northward extent and ticking surface lows in too close to the coast. But you are correct in the fact that the Euro has tapped out several times this year with a slightly too far south solution. The SREF from 21z are still very amped up, but after thinking about it for a few minutes I wouldn't take them into much consideration. Not only are they at the tail end of their useful range, but the amplified members are all ARW and half of NMM nest...which have a tremendous bias of being not only too amplified, but far too wet as well. Some of them are producing 3" QPF bombs over NYC. If you take them out of the mean plumes, the expected QPF drops drastically. That leaves us essentially with the GFS and Euro (forgetting the GGEM which has been disappointingly inconsistent since it's uber upgrade). The GFS handling of the ULL over the NW Atlantic is extremely intriguing and I think the Euro definitely took some steps that way. We've also seen the GFS trend farther southeast with that northern stream vort over the Lakes for 4 runs in a row. I think in the end this ends up somewhere in between, leaning towards the Euro...like the most of them. Buf this specific situation definitely holds promise for a big jump in either direction..specifically a big jump from a Euro solution to a GFS type solution..with some very minor tweaks aloft. Surprised I haven't seen this posted - HPC essentially discounted the retrograding ULL seen on the GFS... ...STAGNANT UPR CYCLONE LINGERING ACRS COASTAL UPR NEW ENGLAND... FINAL PREFERENCE/FCST CONFIDENCE: NON-00Z GFS/UKMET CONSENSUS (AVG CONFIDENCE) AN EXPANSIVE UPR VORTEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO SCOOT OFFSHORE BEFORE A MORE PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW SHUNTS IT OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. THRU THE FIRST 36 HRS OF THE FCST...THE 00Z NAM TRENDED A BIT DEEPER ALOFT WITH THE CORE OF THE CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS SUGGEST A SLGTLY FURTHER S AND W POSN OF THE UPR LOW AT THAT PT. THEREAFTER...THE 00Z NAM IS A BIT QUICKER IN CARRYING THIS UPR SYSTEM OUT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS VERSION OF THE NAM DOES APPEAR TOO FAR S RELATIVE TO THE ENS MEANS AND OTHER GUIDANCE. ON THE CONTRARY...THE 00Z GFS/UKMET SEEM TO SPLIT OFF ANOTHER SMALL LOW CENTER WHICH PEELS BACK TOWARD UPSTATE NY ON WED WHICH WAS NOT REALLY SEEN IN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. DEFINITELY DO NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF SUPPORT FOR THIS IDEA AND WILL FAVOR A NON-00Z GFS/UKMET CONSENSUS SOLN. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There is not likely to be a screw up in the models when the euro shows essentially the same scenario for so many runs. Even if the euro ticked a little further north, it would still show less QPF here than the NAM has. The Euro wasn't even that great for DC I believe-it had more south/east of them. Until it takes a sizeable shift north, it's hard for me to see how this is happening for us. The NAM should almost never be weighted at all, in any situation, and even this NAM run would likely be non-accumulating snow for most. The blocking just doesn't cooperate on the Euro and allow for a shift to bend the storm north like other models. We need to see that change ASAP or we're looking at a VA/MD special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is likely our last shot at snow until December so I'm def going to stay positive. A winter of close calls that's for sure. Per HM in Philly medium range thread: Another -NAO period toward the astronomical spring? Possibility of yet another late-season wet snow before the month is out? The pattern could remain favorable from that point into early/mid April too for additional coastal storms. Not good news for Sandy-relief efforts. I'm still thinking we get a taste of summer in latter April with a string of 80s but I know that's not really a ballsy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Per HM in Philly medium range thread: Another -NAO period toward the astronomical spring? Possibility of yet another late-season wet snow before the month is out? The pattern could remain favorable from that point into early/mid April too for additional coastal storms. Not good news for Sandy-relief efforts. I'm still thinking we get a taste of summer in latter April with a string of 80s but I know that's not really a ballsy call. Horrible news,unless you like cold rain in late March and April..not my thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Rgem at 48 hours is quite similiar to the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Horrible news,unless you like cold rain in late March and April..not my thing The good news is this could be a sign we're going to get a developing El Nino, sometimes these stormy cold wet/springs proceed their development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z RGEM has the same rogue northern s/w energy over NY state that the 0z GFS had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z 12km WSI RPM crushes the tri-state area... 10-24 inches by 12z March 07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Through hr 36 on the 12z GFS the surface low is north of where the NAM depicted it at the same hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12Z RGEM Total Snow rgem_total_snow.jpg Why post a map that doesn't show the entire event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Why post a map that doesn't show the entire event? That's as far as the RGEM goes, it's only a 48 hour model. It's a reference to compare to others at that time frame though. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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