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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7

NEG NAO

By NEG NAO,
in New York City Metro

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Kaner587

Kaner587

Posted
Posted

There is some taint at the end. But verbatim it is snow. Might not accumulate much verbatim.

Lets iron out details of how this storm evolves before talking about rain vs snow and amounts. Verbatim while it was 0.5 for the city it is unlikely more than an inch or two of slop accumulated. With more dynamics and a closer or overhead Ccb this would be of no concern

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

Posted
Posted

There is some taint at the end. But verbatim it is snow. Might not accumulate much verbatim.

Lets iron out details of how this storm evolves before talking about rain vs snow and amounts. Verbatim while it was 0.5 for the city it is unlikely more than an inch or two of slop accumulated. With more dynamics and a closer or overhead Ccb this would be of no concern

This run is very close to really CCBing is. Look at 700 and the omegas JUST offshore

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

There is some taint at the end. But verbatim it is snow. Might not accumulate much verbatim.

We really need better dynamics than what the NAM is showing. People are getting all excited because it shows measurable precip getting into the area, when in fact the heaviest precip is still well south into the mid-atlantic. We might get "some" snow out of this but we're rapidly running out of time.

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

850's are well southeast so many people are assuming it's snow. The surface is warm. Probably mid-30's which is likely why the clown maps aren't showing much.

unless you get into the heavy precip..it's just a mix or rain,nothing to really cool the surface..and if light precip falls during the day in this setup with sun angle..forget it..It might snow,but won't stick..Euro is still way south which should put up red flags for even any precip getting this far

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Zir0b

Zir0b

Posted
Posted

unless you get into the heavy precip..it's just a mix or rain,nothing to really cool the surface..and if light precip falls during the day in this setup with sun angle..forget it..It might snow,but won't stick..Euro is still way south which should put up red flags for even any precip getting this far

NAM shows the bulk of the precip coming in the evening hours to overnight so we should be ok in that aspect

 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

The p type maps I'm seeing show snow.

Unfortunately, I'm going to be on the road for the next several hours, so except for a rest stop, I won't be here during the rest of the 12z suite.

Good luck to all!

Same here. 2.5 half days left to me is plenty of time. The Ccb like you said is just off shore

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

How are we out of time, do you know how many times the models screwed up under 2 days, ask some folks in SNE they know.

We're not out of time, we're running out of time. If the Euro continues to hold serve it certainly continues to gain weight, although based on the changes last run this might come a hair north this run, but I wouldn't expect it to look like the GFS. Speaking of the GFS, hopefully we don't lose it coming up shortly.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

This is likely our last shot at snow until December so I'm def going to stay positive.

A winter of close calls that's for sure.

 

If this ultimately misses if we had not gotten some good luck on that 2/8 event we might have seen DCA/BWI/BOS all with more snow than us for the winter, thats one you don't see too often.

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Neblizzard

Neblizzard

Posted
Posted

We are not even out of time who is to say that the Euro will not shift North. Euro isn't god. It hasn't been that great this winter.

No the Euro isn't God, but it's still a lot better than the GFS. It hasn't really budged in the last several days, I would be shocked to see a trend north at 1pm.

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

It's just so difficult to weight the NCEP guidance into a forecast at this range given the track record, especially when it comes to the precipitation shields northward extent and ticking surface lows in too close to the coast. But you are correct in the fact that the Euro has tapped out several times this year with a slightly too far south solution.

The SREF from 21z are still very amped up, but after thinking about it for a few minutes I wouldn't take them into much consideration. Not only are they at the tail end of their useful range, but the amplified members are all ARW and half of NMM nest...which have a tremendous bias of being not only too amplified, but far too wet as well. Some of them are producing 3" QPF bombs over NYC. If you take them out of the mean plumes, the expected QPF drops drastically.

That leaves us essentially with the GFS and Euro (forgetting the GGEM which has been disappointingly inconsistent since it's uber upgrade). The GFS handling of the ULL over the NW Atlantic is extremely intriguing and I think the Euro definitely took some steps that way. We've also seen the GFS trend farther southeast with that northern stream vort over the Lakes for 4 runs in a row.

I think in the end this ends up somewhere in between, leaning towards the Euro...like the most of them. Buf this specific situation definitely holds promise for a big jump in either direction..specifically a big jump from a Euro solution to a GFS type solution..with some very minor tweaks aloft.

Surprised I haven't seen this posted - HPC essentially discounted the retrograding ULL seen on the GFS...

 

...STAGNANT UPR CYCLONE LINGERING ACRS COASTAL UPR NEW ENGLAND...

FINAL PREFERENCE/FCST CONFIDENCE: NON-00Z GFS/UKMET CONSENSUS (AVG

CONFIDENCE)

AN EXPANSIVE UPR VORTEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE OF

THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM

WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO SCOOT OFFSHORE BEFORE A MORE PROGRESSIVE

MID-LEVEL FLOW SHUNTS IT OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED. THRU THE FIRST 36

HRS OF THE FCST...THE 00Z NAM TRENDED A BIT DEEPER ALOFT WITH THE

CORE OF THE CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS

SUGGEST A SLGTLY FURTHER S AND W POSN OF THE UPR LOW AT THAT PT.

THEREAFTER...THE 00Z NAM IS A BIT QUICKER IN CARRYING THIS UPR

SYSTEM OUT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS

VERSION OF THE NAM DOES APPEAR TOO FAR S RELATIVE TO THE ENS MEANS

AND OTHER GUIDANCE. ON THE CONTRARY...THE 00Z GFS/UKMET SEEM TO

SPLIT OFF ANOTHER SMALL LOW CENTER WHICH PEELS BACK TOWARD UPSTATE

NY ON WED WHICH WAS NOT REALLY SEEN IN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.

DEFINITELY DO NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF SUPPORT FOR THIS IDEA AND

WILL FAVOR A NON-00Z GFS/UKMET CONSENSUS SOLN.

 

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

There is not likely to be a screw up in the models when the euro shows essentially the same scenario for so many runs.

Even if the euro ticked a little further north, it would still show less QPF here than the NAM has.

The Euro wasn't even that great for DC I believe-it had more south/east of them. Until it takes a sizeable shift north, it's hard for me to see how this is happening for us. The NAM should almost never be weighted at all, in any situation, and even this NAM run would likely be non-accumulating snow for most. The blocking just doesn't cooperate on the Euro and allow for a shift to bend the storm north like other models. We need to see that change ASAP or we're looking at a VA/MD special.

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JERSEYSNOWROB

JERSEYSNOWROB

Posted
Posted

This is likely our last shot at snow until December so I'm def going to stay positive.

A winter of close calls that's for sure.

Per HM in Philly medium range thread:

Another -NAO period toward the astronomical spring? Possibility of yet another late-season wet snow before the month is out?

The pattern could remain favorable from that point into early/mid April too for additional coastal storms. Not good news for Sandy-relief efforts.

I'm still thinking we get a taste of summer in latter April with a string of 80s but I know that's not really a ballsy call.

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

Per HM in Philly medium range thread:

Another -NAO period toward the astronomical spring? Possibility of yet another late-season wet snow before the month is out?

The pattern could remain favorable from that point into early/mid April too for additional coastal storms. Not good news for Sandy-relief efforts.

I'm still thinking we get a taste of summer in latter April with a string of 80s but I know that's not really a ballsy call.

Horrible news,unless you like cold rain in late March and April..not my thing

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