IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 54 it's trying to come north with the precip shield but it looks like it will be a miss for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The low itself is in basically the same spot this run at hour 60 vs hr 66 at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NYC south and east getting scraped this run. NW areas getting into the very light precip. Basically the same result as 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Eh....I still think we have a shot at 3-5" or so if everything works out and we remain on the northern edge of the significant snows on SOME of the models, but if the GFS caves at 12z, I wouldn't feel so good about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Eh....I still think we have a shot at 3-5" or so if everything works out and we remain on the northern edge of the significant snows on SOME of the models, but if the GFS caves at 12z, I wouldn't feel so good about it By 66 roughly 0.3 has fallen for NYC with precip on going. Rh looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice nam run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 By 66 roughly 0.3 has fallen for NYC with precip on going. Rh looks good The city east does well. Thos of us living in northern NJ and the NW burbs would just get a glancing blow by the looks of the simulated radar. We really need about a 75-100 mile shift NW to make this happen for more of us and I just don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 By 75 0.5 line gets to southern portions of NYC an LI. Eastern LI gets closer to 0.75-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice nam run Define nice? Better than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Obviously not a big hit but the NAM definitely doesn't remove the possibility of one. Just happy to see it's not way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM total precip through hr 75. Eastern and Southern areas do well. Western burbs might get 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice nam run Define nice? Better than the Euro. Nice for about 1-2" of Snow which yep...if better than euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM looks nicer than 6z, should be .25"+ region wide, southern locations probably see .5" when alls said and done. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 0.5 line ends up just north manhattan and north shore of LI. Extreme cutoff obviously with 1.5 line not too far offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 pretty big differences with the orientation of the H5 trough along with changes at the surface compared with the 0z run...step toward the GFS for sure... my guess is there will be a compromise pretty similar to this solution and the Euro and GFS will end up equally wrong0z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM looks nicer than 6z, should be .25"+ region wide, southern locations probably see .5" when alls said and done. -skisheep I'm actually really surprised by the consistency. NAM throws out almost the exact same precip amounts for NJ/NYC as 6z...except maybe the 2" line and 5" line is shifting just a bit SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's a step towards the gfs. A little more phasing and it would be a huge hit. Like how cold it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's a step towards the gfs. A little more phasing and it would be a huge hit. Like how cold it was. That's important, looks like most(all?) of the precip falls as snow... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The NAM is really warm. Snowfall maps paint nothing for the city. 1-2" NW of I-287. The same for the southern NJ coast through hr 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hi res sim radar and rh fields look pretty solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This SLP stalls between 66- 84 , another 100 miles and you put Long Island on notice . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 By 75 0.5 line gets to southern portions of NYC an LI. Eastern LI gets closer to 0.75-1 Down here in Western Monmouth I will take 4 to 6 or so. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The high res NAM is significantly further NW and more organized with the precip shield. Shows that all of NJ gets into the good precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Curious to see the wind field against the south facing shores of Long island with that slow crawl . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If it is all snow could be at least advisory level for somerset middlesex staten island south. I think its more a matter of getting the heavier precip up than worry about the actual precip type. At least it shows moderate precip up to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowyCane22 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The NAM is really warm. Snowfall maps paint nothing for the city. 1-2" NW of I-287. The same for the southern NJ coast through hr 87. Lol so which is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Taking a look at the high res NAM simulated radar you can really see how we have this solid area of precip that hits a brick wall around hr 42. We're just as close to a big hit as we are to a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Technically a 25 mile shift north is huge difference. And thats not out of the question for 2.5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lol so which is it 850's are well southeast so many people are assuming it's snow. The surface is warm. Probably mid-30's which is likely why the clown maps aren't showing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 850's are well southeast so many people are assuming it's snow. The surface is warm. Probably mid-30's which is likely why the clown maps aren't showing much. There is some taint at the end. But verbatim it is snow. Might not accumulate much verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.