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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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Eh....I still think we have a shot at 3-5" or so if everything works out and we remain on the northern edge of the significant snows on SOME of the models, but if the GFS caves at 12z, I wouldn't feel so good about it

By 66 roughly 0.3 has fallen for NYC with precip on going. Rh looks good

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By 66 roughly 0.3 has fallen for NYC with precip on going. Rh looks good

The city east does well. Thos of us living in northern NJ and the NW burbs would just get a glancing blow by the looks of the simulated radar. We really need about a 75-100 mile shift NW to make this happen for more of us and I just don't see that happening.

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pretty big differences with the orientation of the H5 trough along with changes at the surface compared with the 0z run...step toward the GFS for sure... my guess is there will be a compromise pretty similar to this solution and the Euro and GFS will end up equally wrong

0z:

 

f72.gif

 

12z:

f60.gif

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NAM looks nicer than 6z, should be .25"+ region wide, southern locations probably see .5" when alls said and done.

-skisheep

I'm actually really surprised by the consistency. NAM throws out almost the exact same precip amounts for NJ/NYC as 6z...except maybe the 2" line and 5" line is shifting just a bit SE

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850's are well southeast so many people are assuming it's snow. The surface is warm. Probably mid-30's which is likely why the clown maps aren't showing much.

There is some taint at the end. But verbatim it is snow. Might not accumulate much verbatim.

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