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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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Most of the models overnight trended with more northern stream interaction. The most interaction is with the gfs. This is why you have been seeing a northward shift with the low pressure system. However, the gfs is the only model showing this north solution and prob will correct south in upcoming runs.

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That bias is a real one, but nearly all models (including Euro ensemble) have been trending toward shifting the block further north as the lingering energy over New England eats into the block.

 

You can see the GFS bias at work of breaking down blocks too soon at work here. This is the 

same reason the GFS was too far east with the blizzard when it tried to run the low into the

ridging to the east. This time the block is north and it's trying to run the low too far north.

Even the NAM can see it better at 60 hrs than the GFS.

 

attachicon.gifgfs_namer_060_500_vort_ht.gif

 

attachicon.gifnam_namer_060_500_vort_ht.gif

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We'll probably be on the northern edge of the precip shield, but the reality is that the system is slowly creeping north on all guidance. We need another 50-75 miles from the ECM to really be in the game.

 

I'm also not seeing huge temp problems given 850s @-4C and March starting much colder than normal...I got down to 25F this morning and I'm not in a good radiating spot.

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06Z RGEM, MSLP dominant three-hour p-type valid at hour 54.

attachicon.gifrgem_mslp_54.jpg

 

The RGEM looks pretty far north with everything. The secondary is in south central VA, which I think even the GFS was slightly south with in Central North Carolina. Interesting.

 

Here is the frame before the above frame at hour 48:

 

PT_PN_048_0000.gif

 

It's definitely encouraging to see the RGEM as far north as it is.

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maybe because there was a hurricane involved? :lol:

 

That's not my point. Sandy's pattern was brought here for comparison, by bluewave. These ampfliying ULL/trough like to wrap underneath block. This block is positioned further west and weaker. So its not inconceivable for make left turn.

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That's not my point. Sandy's pattern was brought here for comparison, by bluewave. These ampfliying ULL/trough like to wrap underneath block. This block is positioned further west and weaker. So its not inconceivable for make left turn.

 

But in the case of Sandy, the GFS was OTS because it didn't see strength of the block until well after the Euro.

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But in the case of Sandy, the GFS was OTS because it didn't see strength of the block until well after the Euro.

In this instance the GFS is too far north because it thinks the block will be weaker.

Yeah, even when it finally caught on to the idea of the storm being pulled back it was still 500 miles north of the Euro and we all know what happened...
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Starting to lean toward this mainly being a miss based on the Euro and ensembles not moving much last run. It all comes down to the strength of the block and confluence for us-it needs to move out of the way enough for precip to get here. The phasing and good trends with the low matter more for DC, not us (other than the coastal flooding aspect). The Euro and ensembles have been steadfastly keeping the block stronger than the GFS, and that's why it keeps missing us on those runs. That has to change or we get little/nothing. If things don't change with the orientation of the block by 0z tonight, I'm pretty much writing it off.

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Starting to lean toward this mainly being a miss based on the Euro and ensembles not moving much last run. It all comes down to the strength of the block and confluence for us-it needs to move out of the way enough for precip to get here. The phasing and good trends with the low matter more for DC, not us (other than the coastal flooding aspect). The Euro and ensembles have been steadfastly keeping the block stronger than the GFS, and that's why it keeps missing us on those runs. That has to change or we get little/nothing. If things don't change with the orientation of the block by 0z tonight, I'm pretty much writing it off.

 

The ECMWF being further south than the GFS is definitely concerning for a meaningful storm here. I would really like to see the ECM much further north than last night's run at 12z.

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But in the case of Sandy, the GFS was OTS because it didn't see strength of the block until well after the Euro.

 

Yes, the Euro saw the block first. What happened with Sandy itself, is not really what I'm looking at here. The 500mb pattern the models were forecasting, would of likely a produce Nor'easter for us, if Sandy wasn't involved.The GFS handled it Sandy poorly, because it had showed too much interaction with another big low in the N. Atlantic at that time.

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The Euro is definitely better with blocking patterns than NCEP. I'm still mildly interested but leaning towards the Euro at this point.

That being said, I'm not positive that the blocking is the biggest issue. The GFS is much more rigorous with the retrograding shortwave which thus yields a phase and higher heights.

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But in the case of Sandy, the GFS was OTS because it didn't see strength of the block until well after the Euro.

Yes, the Euro saw the block first. What happened with Sandy itself, is not really what I'm looking at here. The 500mb pattern the models were forecasting, would of likely a produce Nor'easter for us, if Sandy wasn't involved.The GFS handled it Sandy poorly, because it had showed too much interaction with another big low in the N. Atlantic at that time.

The GFS definitely overplayed that big N ATL low as a "weakness".

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The Euro is definitely better with blocking patterns than NCEP. I'm still mildly interested but leaning towards the Euro at this point.

That being said, I'm not positive that the blocking is the biggest issue. The GFS is much more rigorous with the retrograding shortwave which thus yields a phase and higher heights.

 

I agree 100%.

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The low looks a hair south on the 12z NAM at hour 36 vs the 06z NAM at hr 42.

yeah the surface low is but thats because the energy is able to dig a bit further south at h5...the height lines on the east coast seem slightly more favorable

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