MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 as rain or snow? Hard to tell on the mean. It's further west than the 18z mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Love the look on the GEFS. I think the strongest dynamics will end up very close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That's an old versionGGEM is .20 - .40 light rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS as it stands is all alone... GGEM # 72 is cold rain UKMET while it may of came some north is still south and pretty much east... Its essentially the GFS against the rest...awaiting the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is .20 - .40 light rain showers. with 2 - 3" (+) skirting south jersey. wow 120 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 FWIW and it ain't much, CRAS has CCB to our NW with a coastal hugger. The CRAS is useful sometimes for gauging its bias...it tends to be very far west and north with most systems so seeing it only as a coastal hugger may not be that great, I've seen storms go over the Benchmark which it shows over Scranton at day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is always warm it seems As far as the CRAS I look at it the same way SnowGoose Any JMA update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 JMA is going to show a big solution. Can't post it since it's on Stormvista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM is always warm it seems As far as the CRAS I look at it the same way SnowGoose Any JMA update? The GEM does tend to be warm on its ptype, but in this case its not like its even showing snow close, its basically rain from here to Spain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS as it stands is all alone... GGEM # 72 is cold rain I_nw_g1_EST_2013030400_072.png UKMET while it may of came some north is still south and pretty much east... P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Its essentially the GFS against the rest...awaiting the ECM Well the GFS is the only Major model but there is some other guidance and data that show similar hits like WRF,Cras,SREF think the JMA also. Of course if Euro showed something similar this place would explode with optimism going into tomorrow. As long as Euro is at least in GFS ballpark and not like this afternoon than I think Everyone needs to monitor tomorrows developments closely. However seems like all the foreign guidance still sticking with keeping this storm to south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The JMA is most likely a huge hit but it only goes out to 72 at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF mean snow at EWR from the 21z run is around 6"...with the highest total around 20". If you remove the ridiculous ARW members the mean falls to 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 At 72 hrs the JMA already has our entire area up to southern NY State in the. 25-.50 range with a lot more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 JMA is going to show a big solution. Can't post it since it's on Stormvista. Not sure what the JMA does with the New England vort. But it has more interaction northern stream s/w over the Great Lakes at 72hr. Similar to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not sure what you guys see in the JMA run thinking it would head north. Compare the JMA 500mb to the GFS, nothing alike, if anything looks more like a little bit farther north version of the NAM. I have it on stormvista as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF mean snow at EWR from the 21z run is around 6"...with the highest total around 20". If you remove the ridiculous ARW members the mean falls to 2". don't each member play its own role to make the mean as accurate as possible? Im not sure if the ARW members are supposed to always be amplified like that thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The vort that rotates around ULL, that the GFS phases with, is SE of LI right now: You can see it water vapor imagery clearly too: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim8wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not sure what you guys see in the JMA run thinking it would head north. Compare the JMA 500mb to the GFS, nothing alike, if anything looks more like a little bit farther north version of the NAM. I have it on stormvista as well. The NAM is completely detached from the northern stream, the JMA is phasing it in with the building block to its north. No doubt the next frame would have shown a really nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not sure what you guys see in the JMA run thinking it would head north. Compare the JMA 500mb to the GFS, nothing alike, if anything looks more like a little bit farther north version of the NAM. I have it on stormvista as well. Not sure what you guys see in the JMA run thinking it would head north. Compare the JMA 500mb to the GFS, nothing alike, if anything looks more like a little bit farther north version of the NAM. I have it on stormvista as well. Look at the interaction with the 500mb vortex dropping down from Canada and through Wisconsin. It actually looks like it might fully phase with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The vort that rotates around ULL, that the GFS phases with, is SE of LI right now: 12zvadv_sf.gif You can see it water vapor imagery clearly too: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim8wv.html Not to jump in on your thread but you are exactly right. The GFS and UK might be wrong on this, but it's not some mysterious spoke of energy. It IS the feature that's dropping a dusting of snow over SE New England right now. It rotates all the way around in a fujiwhara type effect while another lobe spins SE and fades. The NAM, earlier Euro and CMC all collapse the entire structure in unison with no piece getting shoved SW through Maine. But you are 100% correct, it's that little upper low moving due east right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Say the euro comes north? Arent we dealing with some serious bl issues? depends on dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Some rather significant changes on the Euro through 48 hours. More interactions from both streams...everything farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There is definitely a pretty significant phase going on with the northern stream wave that's further west. Height rises are greatly improved so far. I don't know about it being like the GFS yet, but positive changes so far for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Doesn't look to be as enthused with that retrograding shortwave from the NW Atlantic ULL as the GFS through 60 hours. Surface low is noticeably farther south compared to the GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Doesn't look to be as enthused with that retrograding shortwave from the NW Atlantic ULL as the GFS through 60 hours. Surface low is noticeably farther south compared to the GFS as well. Yeah, that shortwave is there but not nearly as prevalent. I don't think this goes the way of the GFS, but there are more height rises for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Almost spot-on identical to the NAM surface and precipitation shield at 66 hours. Maybe a little more generous with the northern extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It really tried at first, but that retrograding shortwave just has a very poor reflection this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If we had a situation where the Euro was a hit and the GFS was a miss, but then the next GFS made changes like this, I would be quite enthused. But considering it's the Euro, this is not enough of a jump to get me excited. I'm not giving up yet, but this run just doesn't do enough for me considering it's the Euro at 60-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The vort over the lakes needs to stay phased in to pull this up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If we had a situation where the Euro was a hit and the GFS was a miss, but then the next GFS made changes like this, I would be quite enthused. But considering it's the Euro, this is not enough of a jump to get me excited. I'm not giving up yet, but this run just doesn't do enough for me considering it's the Euro at 60-72 hours. More often that not I would say essentially that it was game over given that Euro run at this range. But the dramatic changes aloft on the Euro, and the GFS and SREF showing us what just a slight shift can do, leaves me mildly interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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