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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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What you guys are pointing out makes me think that the confluence is much, much weaker than previously progged.

 

 

Yes. The block's orientation has greatly changed. In the previous run, the heights were oriented towards the Midwest...so much further west. Now, they are oriented much closer to the Atlantic. Thus, the downstream confluence is much further east...aka out of the way. And the high heights from the block are connecting to the SE ridging out ahead of our storm. 

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Just hearing that would make me believe that we may have a MECS/HECS on our hands.

Yes. The block's orientation has greatly changed. In the previous run, the heights were oriented towards the Midwest...so much further west. Now, they are oriented much closer to the Atlantic. Thus, the downstream confluence is much further east...aka out of the way. And the high heights from the block are connecting to the SE ridging out ahead of our storm. 

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It's some 6+ days out unfortunately but when the Euro is on to something big, it's usually right and it's been targeting this storm for a few days now. There's going to be plenty of shuffling with the models for a while, but hopefully the ultimate solution is something that the Euro/Canadian show. 

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