Edge Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 yeah, this thing looks to be sliding out to sea south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nam is going to be south. Onto the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The problem i have with nam is that i doubt there will be such a large area of 2 in qpf. Now if you take that precip and spread it geographically north it makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 0.1 line to the Bronx and 0.25 just barely off shore LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not that I discount the Nam because it doesn't show much for us but honestly the Nam is pretty much garbage especially after 48 hrs. Just remember what it showed for the February storm for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not that I discount the Nam because it doesn't show much for us but honestly the Nam is pretty much garbage especially after 48 hrs. Just remember what it showed for the February storm for a few runs. NAM- never accurate model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Crazy run, it even has rain for NYC and a blizzard for RIC, since it is the NAM after 48hrs this run is Garbage. Since i work for the NYC Sanitation Department, I know garbage when I see it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Crazy run, it even has rain for NYC and a blizzard for RIC, since it is the NAM after 48hrs this run is Garbage. Since i work for the NYC Sanitation Department, I know garbage when I see it.. You most certainly do!! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It does look strange the way it occludes then floods h850 with warm air. On to the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 0z Hi-Res Nam has the precip much further north than the regular Nam at hour 60. Check this out.Namhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_060_sim_radar.gifHi Reshttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=00ℑ=nam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_060_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 0z Hi-Res Nam has the precip much further north than the regular Nam at hour 60. Check this out. Nam http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam/00/nam_namer_060_sim_radar.gif Hi Res http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=00ℑ=nam-hires/00/nam-hires_namer_060_sim_reflectivity.gif The low looks about 50 mi north verbatim. I remember runs leading upto Feb 8th had the nam well S and E and high Rez was north and wet. Still, I can't take anything serious the nam spits out post 48 this season. It's been off the charts bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The euro its control and its ensembles r south and east. The gfs is @) its south and east. With an NAO 3 sd below normal what makes u think this is coming north ? The NAM is south now and u guys think its wrong ? Some of you just like to torture yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The euro its control and its ensembles r south and east. The gfs is @) its south and east. With an NAO 3 sd below normal what makes u think this is coming north ? The NAM is south now and u guys think its wrong ? Some of you just like to torture yourself. No one is torturing themselves, and that's funny coming from someone who just brought up the euro control and the nam at 84 hrs. The event is still 3 days away and we are very much in the game at this point for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The euro its control and its ensembles r south and east. The gfs is @) its south and east. With an NAO 3 sd below normal what makes u think this is coming north ? The NAM is south now and u guys think its wrong ? Some of you just like to torture yourself. At h60 and beyond... Yes. No one said its coming north. No one is torturing themselves. Relax and have a few drinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No one is torturing themselves, and that's funny coming from someone who just brought up the euro control and the nam at 84 hrs.The event is still 3 days away and we are very much in the game at this point for something.[/quote If u think ur in the game ok ur right . All the ncep models run off the same modeling interpretation of the depth of the block. So the nam sref and gfs are gona b north of the euro. The nam is the first ncep to break. The euro is deeper w the block so its been consistent with its placement of the slp. The euro control ver scores our of europe in its 5 days are as good as its op. Pls dont compare the nam against the euro. Its not a hair on its @$($ The euro isnt god but these ncep models r garbage bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 At h60 and beyond... Yes. No one said its coming north. No one is torturing themselves. Relax and have a few drinks.[/quote Just did at brandos in asbury. Peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ni At h60 and beyond... Yes. No one said its coming north. No one is torturing themselves. Relax and have a few drinks.[/quote Just did at brandos in asbury. Peace. Nice I've learned long ago when EC is steady as its been for six runs or so, never waiver against it because it will bite you arse every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS looks pretty good to me so far...looks like it might actually come in more amped up than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS looks pretty good to me so far...looks like it might actually come in more amped up than 18z. Ya...splits that ULL providing all the confluence and looks to phase in some of that energy. An interesting look for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 More amped up through 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 damn, it looks like the GFS is phasing the whole world with this thing this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 72 we get crushed 993 east of Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow, really wraps up between 66 and 72 hours...this is a big hit for many people in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Heavy precip over NYC at hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 damn, it looks like the GFS is phasing the whole world with this thing this time. Yup lol and the result is nice...I wonder how cold the column is though. Heavier precip in here with the Ccb around 69-72 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hr 75 mother of god. 992 heavy preciep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Central and South Jersey getting crushed this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ni name="PB GFI" post="2176107" timestamp="1362367587"] Nice I've learned long ago when EC is steady as its been for six runs or so, never waiver against it because it will bite you arse every time. I just believe in its ability to see specifics that the lower res Ncep models miss . ( Sref and nam outside 48 hrs ) One day the euro will puke a prog and when it does , us euro lovers will look like idiots. The NAO s depth creates enough confluence as well as presses on the SE ridge So it's flatter. I just can't argue with it , as much as I would personally love it to be wrong. Thers a reason the private forecast community rely on it more. Just sayin. As I type the 0z GFS is in. Either im genius or a douche. See u after the euro. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Vort gets to 528 dm. A bit stronger than anything the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NYC still getting plastered at hour 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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