MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Upton Wednesday A chance of rain and snow before 10am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.Wednesday Night A chance of rain before 8pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 8pm and 3am, then a chance of snow after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm still pretty wary, but the trends for a piece of the ULL coming down are certainly very encouraging. That's our main player here, as it would actually allow this to climb the coast somewhat. Additionally, the precipitation field would be able to expand a bit. I'm intrigued but still cautious at this point. Exactly how I feel. I'm watching but feel like this storm already disappointed with a small chance of coming back to life. Around 1:15AM will allow us to see of this should continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To show you how energetic this system is, a small thunderstorm caused a severe thunderstorm warning to be issued for Hardin, MT a couple of hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 In the ultimate irony I just hope the models arent sniffing on an inch of liquid in DC only to swing it east then north into NE , And we being a jump zone ..... I just hope the weather isn't gona be that cruel here. I am still goin with the Euro , as a finer model I'm just more apt to go with it here. The euro really a heavy weight here , it's not like I'm rooting against this I'm just goin what I believe is the superior modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 In the ultimate irony I just hope the models arent sniffing on an inch of liquid in DC only to swing it east then north into NE , And we being a jump zone ..... I just hope the weather isn't gona be that cruel here. I am still goin with the Euro , as a finer model I'm just more apt to go with it here. The euro really a heavy weight here , it's not like I'm rooting against this I'm just goin what I believe is the superior modeling. Ha, yes, haven't seen a NYC metro jumper in years but I do remember them well. These were always the most painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 HPC 1 inch 4 inches 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 21z SREF has .75 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 New 21z SREFs are still pretty amped up...looks like 0.75"+ for most interests from NYC and south. Need to see the higher resolution maps for details on the exact QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 New 21z SREFs are still pretty amped up...looks like 0.75"+ for most interests from NYC and south. Need to see the higher resolution maps for details on the exact QPF amounts. Basically if there is anything to be gleaned from this its that the srefs didn't back off. Although that doesn't necessarily mean its right though, just that if its wrong it continues to be so lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 New 21z SREFs are still pretty amped up...looks like 0.75"+ for most interests from NYC and south. Need to see the higher resolution maps for details on the exact QPF amounts. Still going at hour 87. Look at the 700mv maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There are probably some members more northward than the mean. There definitely are, otherwise the mean wouldn't be the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There are probably some members more northward than the mean. And probably some southward of the mean as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Unfortunately they've sucked this year but even in a bad year one could say they're over due for a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The 700rh maps indeed show precip ongoing at 87. Looks kinda similar to the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Unfortunately they've sucked this year but even in a bad year one could say they're over due for a coup. The one thing I have noticed is that when the SREFs have been correct this season beyond 24-36 hours the bottom 6 panels displayed on the PSU ewall site have been showing the amped solution..those 6 members always seem progressive but they were amped up in the 2/8 storm and they have been so far for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It seems like no matter what the situation, the ARW and all ARW members of the SREF find a way to produce a full fledged blizzard. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/f81.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It seems like no matter what the situation, the ARW and all ARW members of the SREF find a way to produce a full fledged blizzard. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/f81.gif Haha what I would pay for that to verify. It does seem that way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It seems like no matter what the situation, the ARW and all ARW members of the SREF find a way to produce a full fledged blizzard. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/f81.gif You know what earthlight... it is a lot more fun when you are around here. Now, if you could actually make that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It seems like no matter what the situation, the ARW and all ARW members of the SREF find a way to produce a full fledged blizzard. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/f81.gif Yeah, no kidding look at those isobars! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Some of the ARW members on the 21z SREF have well over 2" of QPF...it will be interesting to see the plumes later. I would be strongly inclined to disregard those solutions from the SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Some of the ARW members on the 21z SREF have well over 2" of QPF...it will be interesting to see the plumes later. I would be strongly inclined to disregard those solutions from the SREF mean.the second low to the NE on the ARW link you posted - is that the northern stream being shunted under the block and then connecting before kicking out to see- am I seeing that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 the second low to the NE on the ARW link you posted - is that the northern stream being shunted under the block and then connecting before kicking out to see- am I seeing that right? That's just a small area of lower pressure that the algorithm detects and pops and "L" on...the entire low pressure is fairly broad and large underneath the upper level low. Notice how huge and packed the isobars look due to the high pressure to the north...the storm is only 994mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That's just a small area of lower pressure that the algorithm detects and pops and "L" on...the entire low pressure is fairly broad and large underneath the upper level low. Notice how huge and packed the isobars look due to the high pressure to the north...the storm is only 994mb.gotcha- thank you for the explanation, I didn't think that was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Another NAM run through 36 hours that has a wildly different orientation and positioning of the ULL coming through the Northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am starting to wonder if the low dropping down from Canada slows down a bit, if it will allow a little more time for the upper level low over us to move out. Maybe this would help us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 At 60 hrs a massive piece of that upper level energy in central Canada is dropping down toward our storm and is at least partially phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This NAM run really reinforces the idea of a tightly packed major snowstorm for N VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover20 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes this is not gonna do it on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yep....it may be onto something. Its not budging north at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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