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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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Upton

Wednesday A chance of rain and snow before 10am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night A chance of rain before 8pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 8pm and 3am, then a chance of snow after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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I'm still pretty wary, but the trends for a piece of the ULL coming down are certainly very encouraging. That's our main player here, as it would actually allow this to climb the coast somewhat. Additionally, the precipitation field would be able to expand a bit.

I'm intrigued but still cautious at this point.

Exactly how I feel. I'm watching but feel like this storm already disappointed with a small chance of coming back to life. Around 1:15AM will allow us to see of this should continue...

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In the ultimate irony I just hope the models arent sniffing on an inch of liquid in DC only to swing it east then north into NE ,

And we being a jump zone .....

I just hope the weather isn't gona be that cruel here.

I am still goin with the Euro , as a finer model I'm just more apt to go with it here.

The euro really a heavy weight here , it's not like I'm rooting against this I'm just goin what I believe is the superior modeling.

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In the ultimate irony I just hope the models arent sniffing on an inch of liquid in DC only to swing it east then north into NE ,

And we being a jump zone .....

I just hope the weather isn't gona be that cruel here.

I am still goin with the Euro , as a finer model I'm just more apt to go with it here.

The euro really a heavy weight here , it's not like I'm rooting against this I'm just goin what I believe is the superior modeling.

Ha, yes, haven't seen a NYC metro jumper in years but I do remember them well. These were always the most painful.
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New 21z SREFs are still pretty amped up...looks like 0.75"+ for most interests from NYC and south. Need to see the higher resolution maps for details on the exact QPF amounts.

Basically if there is anything to be gleaned from this its that the srefs didn't back off. Although that doesn't necessarily mean its right though, just that if its wrong it continues to be so lol

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New 21z SREFs are still pretty amped up...looks like 0.75"+ for most interests from NYC and south. Need to see the higher resolution maps for details on the exact QPF amounts.

Still going at hour 87. Look at the 700mv maps.

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Unfortunately they've sucked this year but even in a bad year one could say they're over due for a coup.

 

The one thing I have noticed is that when the SREFs have been correct this season beyond 24-36 hours the bottom 6 panels displayed on the PSU ewall site have been showing the amped solution..those 6 members always seem progressive but they were amped up in the 2/8 storm and they have been so far for this one.

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It seems like no matter what the situation, the ARW and all ARW members of the SREF find a way to produce a full fledged blizzard.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/f81.gif

 

You know what earthlight... it is a lot more fun when you are around here. Now, if you could actually make that happen.

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Some of the ARW members on the 21z SREF have well over 2" of QPF...it will be interesting to see the plumes later. I would be strongly inclined to disregard those solutions from the SREF mean.

the second low to the NE on the ARW link you posted - is that the northern stream being shunted under the block and then connecting before kicking out to see- am I seeing that right?
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the second low to the NE on the ARW link you posted - is that the northern stream being shunted under the block and then connecting before kicking out to see- am I seeing that right?

 

That's just a small area of lower pressure that the algorithm detects and pops and "L" on...the entire low pressure is fairly broad and large underneath the upper level low. Notice how huge and packed the isobars look due to the high pressure to the north...the storm is only 994mb.

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That's just a small area of lower pressure that the algorithm detects and pops and "L" on...the entire low pressure is fairly broad and large underneath the upper level low. Notice how huge and packed the isobars look due to the high pressure to the north...the storm is only 994mb.

gotcha- thank you for the explanation, I didn't think that was right
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