Storm At Sea Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Every single coastal system this year has trended north last minute...everyone fails to realize this. Granted, we have a very long ways to go...the 18z American suite has been God awful and this could be a blip. The common theme this winter is more Northern Stream involvement. Remember that for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Eastern Long Island gets hit hard with wrap-around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Every single coastal system this year has trended north last minute...everyone fails to realize this. Granted, we have a very long ways to go...the 18z American suite has been God awful and this could be a blip. It's nice that it came north but essentially we'd be looking at light to moderate snow and temps in the mid 30s during the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'll tell you guys what. Just looking at the 18z GFS h5 maps its hard to imagine that depiction not bringing significant precipitation to NYC and areas further north. Not saying a HECS or anything. But a few inches of snow? Not a fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's nice that it came north but essentially we'd be looking at light to moderate snow and temps in the mid 30s during the middle of the day. Gfs has .7" for Queens and much more for LI. Most falls at night. Either way, this is a good step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS was so close to a full phase on this run. The northern stream really dug down. The block was also weaker on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's nice that it came north but essentially we'd be looking at light to moderate snow and temps in the mid 30s during the middle of the day. Not if this comes later in the day/evening. NAM thermals are plenty cold for all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 D.C and Boston get close to 12 inches on this run while NYC gets a little bit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 SV snow maps for NYC is 2-4. It's odd with those qpf maxes. Would think it would be smoother. Still a great trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 SV snow maps for NYC is 2-4. It's odd with those qpf maxes. Would think it would be smoother. Still a great trend Can you post maps or give me total for Monmouth cty? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can you post maps or give me total for Monmouth cty?Thanks It's has none. But I would not be concern with that to much yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS interesting to say the least. As I said yesterday, watch this thing find a way against insurmountable obstacles, pound New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can you post maps or give me total for Monmouth cty? Thanks It is showing surface temps way too warm there for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAVGEM still looks like the Euro and UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well At least there is SOME hope for immediate TRi state area going into Tonights Runs and more importantly tomorrows Runs. If tonights Runs don't all Bow to Euro than at least their is still hope for last minute trend North. Not like Major Precip is 300 miles away. The Heaviest Stuff is only 50 to 100 Miles South now. Even as it is a couple of the Models Show parts of the Tri- state getting into some Mod to heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAVGEM still looks like the Euro and UKMET. Stronger block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looking goods guys, I don't want to to say I told you so yet but were getting there. =) Just need the 0z Guidance to confirm the trend is real. - Its amazing how its always the 18z GFS that telegraphs a shift in the storm first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Stronger block. nvg10.500.066.namer.gif Northern stream almost phased on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Northern stream almost phased on this run With a weaker block we would get more interaction between the streams and a further NW extension of the precip shield. The euro ensemble mean looks like a good blocking compromise at this point between the stronger OP and weaker GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So I leave and all the models are trending north? I still want to see the euro on our side..this just shows that nothing is set on stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 SV snow maps for NYC is 2-4. It's odd with those qpf maxes. Would think it would be smoother. Still a great trend I think the precipitation shield would be a little smoother in reality. The QPF bullseyes on the 18z GFS don't look realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So I leave and all the models are trending north? I still want to see the euro on our side..this just shows that nothing is set on stone yet. Hopefully tomorrow we start to see final trends one way or the other, but I would still say we're in the game and don't need a huge shift. My major concern would still be the coastal impacts from a deeper and more wound up low. The NAM has 40+ knot winds over the NJ coastal waters, which would generate huge pounding waves and surge. The beach here now is basically a bunch of mounds of sand that are still being sifted through and concrete pilings where the boardwalk used to be. Wouldn't take a lot to flood a lot of us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z GEFS is slightly east and drier than the 12z GEFS but it still shows .75 plus for NYC. Philly and Boston get alot also on this run.http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z GFS also has a monster block developing over Southeast Canada by next weekend with -10C 850s all the way down to the NC/SC border in the longer range. Looks like there may be a piece of energy in the STJ that could affect the area around 3/13. This run also wants to develop an Alaska block in the fantasy range and deliver another powerful cold shot around 3/20. March looks to be a more wintry one than we've seen lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z GFS also has a monster block developing over Southeast Canada by next weekend with -10C 850s all the way down to the NC/SC border in the longer range. Looks like there may be a piece of energy in the STJ that could affect the area around 3/13. This run also wants to develop an Alaska block in the fantasy range and deliver another powerful cold shot around 3/20. March looks to be a more wintry one than we've seen lately... Happy anniversary! The 0z Euro should be interesting to see what it shows. Personally I think the philly area will be the winners as the N trend slowly continues, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So I leave and all the models are trending north? I still want to see the euro on our side..this just shows that nothing is set on stone yet. All models? hardly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 All models? hardly.. JMA,SREF,NAM,GFS,GEFS, ( Nogaps was close to a full phase ) vs Euro, Euro ensembles,Ukie and GGEM. Happy anniversary! The 0z Euro should be interesting to see what it shows. Personally I think the philly area will be the winners as the N trend slowly continues, Quite possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I find it funny that todays GFS runs are now trying to phase in a piece of energy splitting off from the ULL east of Maine. That I think would be a deal breaker for sure. Hopefully that trend is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z GEFS members. Still impressive.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm still pretty wary, but the trends for a piece of the ULL coming down are certainly very encouraging. That's our main player here, as it would actually allow this to climb the coast somewhat. Additionally, the precipitation field would be able to expand a bit. I'm intrigued but still cautious at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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