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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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The NAM definitely would keep hitting us at later frames. 700mb looks good and even decent omegas are just north of NYC.

The position and track of the low is significantly further north this run. 12z was basically NW to SE. This is more of a W-E path as it approaches the coast. Obviously we need this to come a bit further north.

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Taking a look at the high res NAM on Storm Vista QPF through hr 84

 

DCA 2-2.5"

PHL 0.75-1.00"

ACY 1.00-1.25"

Monmouth 0.25-0.50"

 

Everyone else in our forum pretty much in the .10-25" range.

 

NAM snow maps show a dusting for southern sections of our area and nothing north of Monmouth, or very little. Keep in mind storm is ongoing. Huge hit for the Mid-Atlantic and Philly forums.

Extreme caution urged with this model.  It does wacky, wacky stuff with the QPF.  I mean, I have consistently seen it be 2-4 times the amount of the actual qpf.  Stick with the normal NAM.  I mean honestly, I have no idea what the high resolution attempt was here, but they should have kept it to themselves.  It does a horrible job with qpf. 

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f84.gif

Looks pretty cold too. Guess we have to see if models continue to key on more interaction with pieces ofthe northern stream. That's our only shot on bringing this storm north. Id like to see a major trend on the 0z models apart from the crap guidance we have on board so far, lol

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Couple things, too many people wrote this storm off too soon IMO and still may be a miss or rain however most mets said don't start taking models seriously to the Sunday or even Monday timeframe. I as many of you have seen plenty of times 7 days before a storm models show a huge hit than either lose it or show something different for 2 or 3 days only to come back to original scenario 24 to 36 hrs before the storm. Tonight and tomorrow will be interesting with all the runs as there is a better sampling of the players on the map.

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Extreme caution urged with this model.  It does wacky, wacky stuff with the QPF.  I mean, I have consistently seen it be 2-4 times the amount of the actual qpf.  Stick with the normal NAM.  I mean honestly, I have no idea what the high resolution attempt was here, but they should have kept it to themselves.  It does a horrible job with qpf. 

The simulated radar really paints the picture. Extreme cutoff area near KSWF-KHPN northward. We're in at at hr 84 but only shortly if it slides east in later frames. My thought is that this isn't finished coming north until the interaction with the ULL can finally be realized fully.

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The Euro ensembles are hinting that the 0z OP may tick a little stronger and NW than 12z, but would

still be to far SE to get the heavier precip in here.

 

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_96.gif

 

Is it just me, or does the ensemble mean not look way the heck better than the operational run?  I mean, it looks more wrapped up and a tick further NW than the operational run.  Like you said though, it may still be a miss, but it is unusual to see an ensemble mean look more wound up than an operational run.

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The Control run of the Euro is more wrapped-up with the storm, but the result is nearly identical to the operational run.  Just brushes the coast with some light precip.

 

It is also interesting for next Tuesday and Wednesday around 220-240 hrs out, it takes another low up to about Philadelphia where it then deepens the low to 988mb and it hits a brick wall when it hits the block and stalls out, dropping over 1 inch of precip, with 850's near zero the whole time.  That one could be interesting as well.  After hitting the block there it then slides out off the coast to the east after sitting there for while and dying out.

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It's good to see the Nam coming more north. Let's hope the GFS does the same.

here is the snowfall map for the NAM at 84 hours just for a few sh*ts and giggles but still not good to use the NAM as a mid - longer range guidance - interesting though that it is coming north along with a few of the longer range models which are just a notch better then the NAM

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE084.gif

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Have you been outside today?

 

 

Outside today? I mentioned Tuesday, not today. What does the cold weather today have to do with Tuesday, when it will be warming up to near 50 degrees? The airmass ahead of this storm will not be very good. Doesn't mean we won't get snow, but temps are a concern. It would help if we could get the event at night.

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Outside today? I mentioned Tuesday, not today. What does the cold weather today have to do with Tuesday, when it will be warming up to near 50 degrees? The airmass ahead of this storm will not be very good. Doesn't mean we won't get snow, but temps are a concern. It would help if we could get the event at night.

 

 The point is that the air mass in place now is what is potentially keeping this storm to the south of us.  It is so darn cold outside today because this air mass is so darn strong and providing strong blocking which is keeping the storm to our south.  It will be snow for whomever ends up in its fury.  That may actually end up being south of us because it is so darn cold outside today (meaning the air mass is so strong). 

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The GFS has been doing much better with this storm. I think people inherently rely on the Euro lock and stock. The NYC window is closing, but a last minute 100 mile shift (what I might call a "climo shift" for ace to get his pants in a wad) would not shock me one bit. The MD panhandle sees great snows on a regular basis. There's a good amount of elevation down there obviously as well which helps. Interestingly enough, we fail to realize that just a few days ago, this was a Richmond snowstorm of historic proportions. It's not any longer and the ante has been upped for places to the north. If you follow the trend over the past several days, there has been a 25-50 mile north trend each day. It's minor enough to keep NYC people at bay, but over time, it gradually places people on this board back into the game. It would not shock me one bit to see PHL as the eventual winner for this event.

 

I'd like to say that maybe people have finally learned their lesson.

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