ny747pilot Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yeah...this looks like what's happening. Some members are bringing significant precip all the way to Portland, Maine this storm still bears watching- I remember studying a similiar situation I believe it was late Jan 2003 or 2004 where the confluence and blocking were expected to keep the storm over the mid Atlantic area and the area ended up with feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What about the NAVGEM and FIM? They're more Euro-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The SREF are really amped up...still a ton of members showing monster hits. But we've seen them do this multiple times at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 JMA crushes us It's still a very sharp cut off, keeps the heaviest precip down by the DC area but does give everyone south of HPN 0.50"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The SREF are really amped up...still a ton of members showing monster hits. But we've seen them do this multiple times at this range. Are the really amped up members all ARW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The SREF are really amped up...still a ton of members showing monster hits. But we've seen them do this multiple times at this range. Earthlight you got the Euro ensembles? Per the SNE forum they are way north... have 0.50" qpf past Boston...not sure what it has for our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's still a very sharp cut off, keeps the heaviest precip down by the DC area but does give everyone south of HPN 0.50"+. Not sure why I'm analyzing a JMA run...but it has 1" QPF up to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Earthlight you got the Euro ensembles? Per the SNE forum they are way north... have 0.50" qpf past Boston...not sure what it has for our region Virtually nothing North or West of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not sure why I'm analyzing a JMA run...but it has 1" QPF up to NYC I didn't take the time to do anything more than estimate, it's a crappy model but I've seen it come up big a couple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The fact that today is the first time in days that ensembles are showing way morth scenarios has me real nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The fact that today is the first time in days that ensembles are showing way morth scenarios has me real nervous. More happy than nervous I'd think. Hey....we might still be in the game for SOMETHING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The NAM is significantly farther south and west with the shortwave/associated mid level trough through 45 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The 12z JMA has more northern stream interaction, between 72-96hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 JMA total precip is .75-1.00 for Northern New Jersey, 1.00 for NYC, 1.00-1.25 for central, southern NJ, and western Long Island and 1.25-1.50 for eastern Long Island. Attached below is the 96-120 hr map which was missing in prior posts, followed by the total qpf map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 All it will take is a timing change...perfect alignment of trof/ridge is killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's interesting to see the NAM look so strikingly similar aloft to the ARW/NMM members on the SREF that are producing huge QPF solutions over our area. When you look closer, you can see that the amplified SREF members are actually interacting the big ULL with some vorticity to our north and east from the previously confluent trough over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM is still pretty far south so far with not much room to come north, certainly not like the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I didn't take the time to do anything more than estimate, it's a crappy model but I've seen it come up big a couple times. The JMA has higher verification scores than the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I have the NAM out to hour 75, looks like it's tries to interact some with the ULL in the 69-72 hr time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 But even on these models that hit us, how much of it is rain and how much is snow? We're expecting high temps near 50 on Tuesday. Not exactly a cold airmass in place for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 But even on these models that hit us, how much of it is rain and how much is snow? We're expecting high temps near 50 on Tuesday. Not exactly a cold airmass in place for this storm. Have you been outside today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yup...NAM's gonna try and tug it north post 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nice hit for everybody NYC and points south between 75 and 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hr 84 nam has light snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hr 84 nam has light snow for NYC. Looks like moderate snow gets up to Sandy Hooks latitude, just south/near our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like moderate snow gets up to Sandy Hooks latitude, just south/near our areas. Yeah, you know what.... This is starting to get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not worth much, if anything at all, but the new NMM is a monster. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAEAST_18z/f84.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like moderate snow gets up to Sandy Hooks latitude, just south/near our areas. Granted its the nam, but I do like how it's a over night event. Temps colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Taking a look at the high res NAM on Storm Vista QPF through hr 84 DCA 2-2.5" PHL 0.75-1.00" ACY 1.00-1.25" Monmouth 0.25-0.50" Everyone else in our forum pretty much in the .10-25" range. NAM snow maps show a dusting for southern sections of our area and nothing north of Monmouth, or very little. Keep in mind storm is ongoing. Huge hit for the Mid-Atlantic and Philly forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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