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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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yeah...this looks like what's happening. Some members are bringing significant precip all the way to Portland, Maine

f96.gif

this storm still bears watching- I remember studying a similiar situation I believe it was late Jan 2003 or 2004 where the confluence and blocking were expected to keep the storm over the mid Atlantic area and the area ended up with feet of snow
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The SREF are really amped up...still a ton of members showing monster hits. But we've seen them do this multiple times at this range.

Earthlight you got the Euro ensembles? Per the SNE forum they are way north... have 0.50" qpf past Boston...not sure what it has for our region 

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It's interesting to see the NAM look so strikingly similar aloft to the ARW/NMM members on the SREF that are producing huge QPF solutions over our area.

 

When you look closer, you can see that the amplified SREF members are actually interacting the big ULL with some vorticity to our north and east from the previously confluent trough over New England.

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Taking a look at the high res NAM on Storm Vista QPF through hr 84

 

DCA 2-2.5"

PHL 0.75-1.00"

ACY 1.00-1.25"

Monmouth 0.25-0.50"

 

Everyone else in our forum pretty much in the .10-25" range.

 

NAM snow maps show a dusting for southern sections of our area and nothing north of Monmouth, or very little. Keep in mind storm is ongoing. Huge hit for the Mid-Atlantic and Philly forums.

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