ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Without any support from the Euro I will not get sucked in. there isnt any support from any other model...the gefs cant resolve the block. as i (and others) mentioned before, this is like the ensembles right before the 2/6/20 storm. and im not talking about the mean having 1.25-1.50" of QPF for our area, instead, each and every individual member had the same exact look. They were very correct from C NJ south, they just had an incorrectly robust northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It is odd that almost every single member hits us pretty hard. But the Euro ensembles were only a graze. Coudl it be the new data that's entered the grid? However, didn't the GGEM/UKIE have the same (and, well NAM, but long range...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's weird to see DC getting a snow event in March and we get nothing. why is it weird? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I think that's more then just a sharp cutoff issue. A lot of those are amp up. Good point, that is not a matter of the precip gradient moving northward, its about the low turning the corner more rather than moving due east out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It is odd that almost every single member hits us pretty hard. But the Euro ensembles were only a graze. Each time the ensembles have been north, the next op run went north. Still can't go against the euro, but I think we see a bump north in 20 min. Just enough to get dca back in the paste dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Each time the ensembles have been north, the next op run went north. Still can't go against the euro, but I think we see a bump north in 20 min. Just enough to get dca back in the paste dump We needed the phase with the GL low that the Euro had earlier this week in order to draw the low far enough north for heavier precip here. The Euro has been really consistent since it lost this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Coudl it be the new data that's entered the grid? However, didn't the GGEM/UKIE have the same (and, well NAM, but long range...) have to be open minded here - wouldn't take much for a northern jog - and several systems this year have overachieved -although not all in this region - key is intensity of the low and taking the normal snowstorm track for NYC with such a borderline air mass need the low to draw the cold enough air in similar to what happened back in november.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Each time the ensembles have been north, the next op run went north. Still can't go against the euro, but I think we see a bump north in 20 min. Just enough to get dca back in the paste dump We needed the phase with the GL low that the Euro had earlier this week in order to draw the low far enough north for heavier precip here. The Euro has been really consistent since it lost this idea. Look how much further east the block was, too. That's also a huge difference maker. The GEFS might be phasing more, but none of the OPs have made trends towards showing more northern stream energy, so the GEFS are probably out to lunch. That being said, the GGEM, UKIE, and long range NAM are usually pretty bad models to use operationally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Look how much further east the block was, too. That's also a huge difference maker. The GEFS might be phasing more, but none of the OPs have made trends towards showing more northern stream energy, so the GEFS are probably out to lunch. That being said, the GGEM, UKIE, and long range NAM are usually pretty bad models to use operationally. Yeah, the stronger block further west took that solution off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 About 8 or 9 GEFS members have at least .75" total qpf for NYC S&E. Not buying it yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro looks much further north through hour 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The Euro is gonna be north of 00z.. don't know if it will come far enough north to hit us though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Have to agree on the GEFS. It's tough to buy it at face value, but that many members suggests something to watch for at least another day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The Euro is gonna be north of 00z.. don't know if it will come far enough north to hit us though at 72 hrs it's the same as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro is about 6 hours faster, maybe 15 miles north from 0z. 15 is insignificant and statistical noise. The faster movement is an interesting development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 at 72 hrs it's the same as 0z. Yeah it will probably just be a tad north ..to make DC folks happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't get it, just by looking at H5 through 60 hours, you can see it was heading more north.. but the outcome is still the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't get it, just by looking at H5 through 60 hours, you can see it was heading more north.. but the outcome is still the same block and confluence still in the way on this run - still a miss for a snowstorm on the 12Z Euro OP - next up the Euro ensembles in a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 About 8 or 9 GEFS members have at least .75" total qpf for NYC S&E. Not buying it yet though. The gefs is nothing but the weenies last ray of hope . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GFS ensembles not withstanding, my best guess is that the storm will be the kind that brings heavy wet snow across central/western Virginia, western Maryland, and south-central Pennsylvania. It remains plausible that Washington, DC (DCA) and Baltimore could pick up 4" or more snow. Sterling, VA (IAD) should. Philly might have a shot at a couple inches, but that's a closer call. NYC and New England will likely miss out and could conceivably experience rain or snow showers if they see precipitation. That's not yet cast in stone, but it's getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't get it, just by looking at H5 through 60 hours, you can see it was heading more north.. but the outcome is still the same Doesn't matter how awesome the storm is aloft or at the surface-when it hits the block and confluence that's it. 2/6/10 was a very QPF-heavy storm and I remember watching wave after wave of it being eaten up by the dry confluence. I think there's still some chance of this coming north to affect us but odds strongly favor the Mid-Atlantic. Being fringed wouldn't help either since we have a poor airmass-it would be rain or a non-accumulating mix. We have to be in the main batch of precip pretty solidly to be sure it's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So far it looks like in the medium range, the GFS took the Euro to school in regards to the handling of the northern stream upper level low and blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So far it looks like in the medium range, the GFS took the Euro to school in regards to the handling of the northern stream upper level low and blocking. To be fair, there were runs where the GFS also had a ridiculous northern stream wave that was phasing with the storm. The euro had that [wrong] idea first and for longer, but it also dropped the northern stream idea before the GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Serfs are in their own world with .75 to 1" qpf for the region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Serfs are in their own world with .75 to 1" qpf for the region... Gefs agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Serfs are in their own world with .75 to 1" qpf for the region... May as well grasp at all the straws we can get a hold of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 JMA crushes us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We got the trifecta of the crap models.....gefs, srefs, and jma on our side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We got the trifecta of the rap models.....gets, serfs, and jma on our side! Lol....from what I can tell, these models want to get a piece of northern stream energy involved which would help the low turn the corner instead of heading straight east of the VA coast like the Euro is showing. The Euro has that northern stream piece act like a kicker, pushing it out to sea, The Mid-Atlantic forum has an interesting discussion about this in their thread. Worth reading. So...72-96 hours out. We've seen how much forecasts can change in this timeframe from years past. The general idea of a strong storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast is pretty much a lock -- but how far north does it come? Just trying to keep hope alive, don't think it's likely to happen but something to think about in the back of your mind, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What about the NAVGEM and FIM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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