96blizz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 this is an interesting look need this trend to continue http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS084.gif Without any support from the Euro I will not get sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's hard for me to believe DC is getting a 12-18" storm in March. So after 0z, if it still shows that, I'll give up. DC definitely is not getting 12-18"...that will be confined to the elevation favored north & west suburbs. DC itself is going to lose a ton of QPF to rain/slop like what in NYC during the February snowstorm. I think the max in DC will be 6", and that's assuming they are in a near perfect location of the heaviest dynamics/precip like the 12z NAM/GFS were showing. Still a major storm though for this time of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DC definitely is not getting 12-18"...that will be confined to the elevation favored north & west suburbs. DC itself is going to lose a ton of QPF to rain/slop like what in NYC during the February snowstorm. I think the max in DC will be 6", and that's assuming they are in a near perfect location of the heaviest dynamics/precip like the 12z NAM/GFS were showing. Still a major storm though for this time of the year! Prob right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's really amazing how consistent the models are with a storm when we are out of the game, funny indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's weird to see DC getting a snow event in March and we get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Without any support from the Euro I will not get sucked in. agreed this 12Z Euro run coming up is VERY important since there is new data in it and its in its most accurate range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DC definitely is not getting 12-18" last night's euro gave DC zero inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GEFS does not have the resolution to see the sharp cutoffs in precip that this storm will have. I'm not buying it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 agreed this 12Z Euro run coming up is VERY important since there is new data in it and its in its most accurate range+100.. if Euro is still a miss. Well, game over for me. We need this to come north now. And I don't think it is.. sorry. Same ole' situationJust need the friggin H to lift out just a tad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 +100.. if Euro is still a miss. Well, game over for me. We need this to come north now. And I don't think it is.. sorry. Same ole' situation This winter has really made things change around here, people giving up 3 days before a storm .. I'll give up after 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GEFS does not have the resolution to see the sharp cutoffs in precip that this storm will have. I'm not buying it at all. Actually I'm not sure if that has to do with precip cutoffs, from what I heard, some of the 6z GEFS members actually phased in a piece of the ULL low which would help turn the low into a classic benchmark track, I'm assuming this is the same case with some of the 12z GEFS members. Not buying it since no operational models show that kind of scenario taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Alot of costal preciep on the mean for the gefs. Gets qpf up to mass/nh boarder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 agreed this 12Z Euro run coming up is VERY important since there is new data in it and its in its most accurate range We were out of the game for a big precip event here when the Euro lost the phase with the GL low which drew the precip shield and low further north several days back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This winter has really made things change around here, people giving up 3 days before a storm .. I'll give up after 0z I don't want to give up and want over a foot more then anyone but if it don't start changing the next run with new data, I don't see it changing at 0z or 12z tomorrow either. However.. we all know what can happen 24 hr from the show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Actually I'm not sure if that has to do with precip cutoffs, from what I heard, some of the 6z GEFS members actually phased in a piece of the ULL low which would help turn the low into a classic benchmark track, I'm assuming this is the same case with some of the 12z GEFS members. Not buying it since no operational models show that kind of scenario taking place. yeah...this looks like what's happening. Some members are bringing significant precip all the way to Portland, Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 All of them are amped up. Red flag for the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yeah...this looks like what's happening. Some members are bringing significant precip all the way to Portland, Maine I think that's more then just a sharp cutoff issue. A lot of those are amp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't want to give up and want over a foot more then anyone but if it don't start changing the next run with new data, I don't see it changing at 0z or 12z tomorrow either. However.. we all know what can happen 24 hr from the show! Exactly. tell me about it. Last storm I was suppose to get 20+ inches. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I think that's more then just a sharp cutoff issue. A lot of those are amp up. yeah, that's what i'm saying. Not really much to do with smoothed out precip cut-offs, some of the ensemble members want to phase in a piece of northern branch energy which helps the low turn the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12 GEFS continues to be wetter than its previous run. Gets the 1.0 qpf line along the south shore of LI and NYC and most of CNJ. Just like 2/6/10 I ain't buyin it EXACTLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Actually I'm not sure if that has to do with precip cutoffs, from what I heard, some of the 6z GEFS members actually phased in a piece of the ULL low which would help turn the low into a classic benchmark track, I'm assuming this is the same case with some of the 12z GEFS members. Not buying it since no operational models show that kind of scenario taking place. yeah...this looks like what's happening. Some members are bringing significant precip all the way to Portland, Maine Yeah, you guys are right. Interesting to see but I just can't buy it at this point. I hope I'll have to eat my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I remember it vividly. A foot might be sort of an exaggeration but we were always within the 0.75-1 range AT LEAST. So just like that time, I'm not buying it. I don't believe the cut off will be as dramatic but the end result will be the same, at least for most people north of CNJ it was MORE than .75-1"...it was between 1.25 and 1.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Only 2 members are a close miss. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, you guys are right. Interesting to see but I just can't buy it at this point. I hope I'll have to eat my words. Hopefully it's leading the way. But that's a snow dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I will say.. when we get snow in March, it tends to be a doozy. So,if this baby can manage to hang a left. Its gonna be a real doozy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it was MORE than .75-1"...it was between 1.25 and 1.50 That storm was painful.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's really amazing how consistent the models are with a storm when we are out of the game, funny indeed. just seems that way because they all show us getting nada..models are not consistent at all with respect to dc and VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Woah at the GEFS individuals... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, you guys are right. Interesting to see but I just can't buy it at this point. I hope I'll have to eat my words. I'm with you. Some of those look tasty, but I can't recall a time that the Euro was THAT far off about 72 hours from an event. Maybe I'm wrong and the new data/players will change things, but I'm honestly more than skeptical --- especially consdering it has zero support from any of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, you guys are right. Interesting to see but I just can't buy it at this point. I hope I'll have to eat my words. Hopefully it's leading the way. But that's a snow dream It is odd that almost every single member hits us pretty hard. But the Euro ensembles were only a graze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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