Isotherm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Keep in mind we need a bigger shift north to get into the hvy precip rates. This late in the season, light/mod precip will not result in accumulating snow. The boundary layer is much too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well you are at odds with DT and JB. Rossi No I'm in reality and surface temps argue rain. You can't just go by 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's all rain verbatim. We would need heavier preciep rates It depends on where you are talking about. In NYC maybe and along the coast probably. I just ran Somerset, NJ and Morristown, NJ soundings and it is almost definitely wet snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's all rain verbatim. We would need heavier preciep rates Whatever snow falls wont be able to accumulate unless under the heavier bands. Temps in the mid upper 30s and light snow in early March.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z UKMET is WAY south, just like the ECMWF. Not even close. Has zero for all of NJ and even keeps the meaningful precipitation south of Baltimore, MD and south of Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 At least GFS moved north. But we need the EURO to do the same at 12z or 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 At least GFS moved north. But we need the EURO to do the same at 12z or 0z. doesn't look like the new data from the storm being on shore in the west really changed much in the models as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 doesn't look like the new data from the storm being on shore in the west really changed much in the models as of now I thought that new data was going to be on 0z.. not earlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm encouraged right now with the GEFS being very wet as they are. I think the 12z GFS will be pretty telling, as to see if the 6z GEFS have a clue with their wet solution. why? because u like what u see? they are garbage and have been all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 why? because u like what u see? they are garbage and have been all year No, because they are and are still substantially wetter than the operational model. Take some time and look at the individual members on the 6z GEFS. You will see that a large majority were NW of the operational GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 oh ok 0Z monday ? need that storm to intensify and move off the coast east of us It's hard for me to believe DC is getting a 12-18" storm in March. So after 0z, if it still shows that, I'll give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z UKMET is WAY south, just like the ECMWF. Not even close. Has zero for all of NJ and even keeps the meaningful precipitation south of Baltimore, MD and south of Delaware. Could you post a link to it? Meteocentre hasn't updated yet for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No, because they are and are still substantially wetter than the operational model. Take some time and look at the individual members on the 6z GEFS. You will see that a large majority were NW of the operational GFS. if the gefs means worked out for half of this winter i would of had over 100 inches by now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 if the gefs means worked out for half of this winter i would of had over 100 inches by now lol They can be used as a tool to see where the operational stands with regard to the range of solutions. The GEFS may not be the most accurate model, but it gives a rough range with regard to where the operational falls in the swath of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's hard for me to believe DC is getting a 12-18" storm in March. So after 0z, if it still shows that, I'll give up. It would be tough to accumulate if it isn't coming down too hard, but verbatim they absolutely get crushed. If it was possible for most of us to accumulate 6" if not more in early November, they can certainly pull a big event off now. We've had heavy accumulating snow in early April before (2003) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's hard for me to believe DC is getting a 12-18" storm in March. So after 0z, if it still shows that, I'll give up. New data is already in the models. We are no where DC , they will snow , we will not. Not you're storm. If u need to wait until Friday you may do so , the SLP gets to the Delmarva and then heads east. The NAO is our enemy this time. It's a shunt , it happens. You never get anywhere close to the precip rates needed to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No, because they are and are still substantially wetter than the operational model. Take some time and look at the individual members on the 6z GEFS. You will see that a large majority were NW of the operational GFS. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Agree For what it's worth, the 12z GEFS continue to be north and are quite a bit wetter than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12 GEFS continues to be wetter than its previous run. Gets the 1.0 qpf line along the south shore of LI and NYC and most of CNJ. Just like 2/6/10 I ain't buyin it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 New data is already in the models. We are no where DC , they will snow , we will not. Not you're storm. If u need to wait until Friday you may do so , the SLP gets to the Delmarva and then heads east. The NAO is our enemy this time. It's a shunt , it happens. You never get anywhere close to the precip rates needed to snow. I agree with you - and this is going to be a light to moderate rainfall event for us - I suspected the new data was in the models and it changed very little in the outcome ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 New data is already in the models. We are no where DC , they will snow , we will not. Not you're storm. If u need to wait until Friday you may do so , the SLP gets to the Delmarva and then heads east. The NAO is our enemy this time. It's a shunt , it happens. You never get anywhere close to the precip rates needed to snow. Huh? if the storm doesn't move north. doesn't mean DC gets Snow. last time I checked, the EURO was really warm for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12 GEFS continues to be wetter than its previous run. Gets the 1.0 qpf line along the south shore of LI and NYC and most of CNJ. Just like 2/6/10 I ain't buyin itthe gfes showed nyc getting a foot right up until the storm started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the gfes showed nyc getting a foot right up until the storm started I remember it vividly. A foot might be sort of an exaggeration but we were always within the 0.75-1 range AT LEAST. So just like that time, I'm not buying it. I don't believe the cut off will be as dramatic but the end result will be the same, at least for most people north of CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the gfes showed nyc getting a foot right up until the storm started They probably can't see correct strength and orientation of the block since they aren't as good as the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This might be the wettest gefs run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 They probably can't see correct strength and orientation of the block since they aren't as good as the Euro ensembles.coarser resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I remember it vividly. A foot might be sort of an exaggeration but we were always within the 0.75-1 range AT LEAST. So just like that time, I'm not buying it. I don't believe the cut off will be as dramatic but the end result will be the same, at least for most people north of CNJ Well actually they were pretty close here.But a bit too generous because it was a SMOOTHED OUT mean. Remember how extreme the gradient was? Parts of SI (southwest part got in excess of warning criteria snow, reports of up to 10"? ) while other parts of the 5 borough could probably see the snow shield looking at the horizon. Here in the New Brunswick area there was 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover20 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM is still a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Huh? if the storm doesn't move north. doesn't mean DC gets Snow. last time I checked, the EURO was really warm for them. . Bro. Im just giving you my opinion , DC will start as rain and go over to a paste job. There 850 are cold enough , the back side flow will get them on a NNE flow and there rates are gona take care of cooling there column. The last 2 are not progged here. You guys can buy the GEFS and it's more robust precip field , I just don't buy the GFS 3 weeks ago on valentines day a FRI at 12 z it printed out a ft of snow here and by 18z it printed out drizzle and that was 48 hrs out. If the EURO changes I will DC should snow and may not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 This might be the wettest gefs run yet this is an interesting look need this trend to continue http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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