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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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I'm encouraged right now with the GEFS being very wet as they are. I think the 12z GFS will be pretty telling, as to see if the 6z GEFS have a clue with their wet solution.

why? because u like what u see? they are garbage and have been all year

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why? because u like what u see? they are garbage and have been all year

No, because they are and are still substantially wetter than the operational model. Take some time and look at the individual members on the 6z GEFS. You will see that a large majority were NW of the operational GFS.

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No, because they are and are still substantially wetter than the operational model. Take some time and look at the individual members on the 6z GEFS. You will see that a large majority were NW of the operational GFS.

if the gefs means worked out for half of this winter i would of had over 100 inches by now lol

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if the gefs means worked out for half of this winter i would of had over 100 inches by now lol

They can be used as a tool to see where the operational stands with regard to the range of solutions. The GEFS may not be the most accurate model, but it gives a rough range with regard to where the operational falls in the swath of solutions.

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It's hard for me to believe DC is getting a 12-18" storm in March. So after 0z, if it still shows that, I'll give up.

It would be tough to accumulate if it isn't coming down too hard, but verbatim they absolutely get crushed. If it was possible for most of us to accumulate 6" if not more in early November, they can certainly pull a big event off now. We've had heavy accumulating snow in early April before (2003)

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It's hard for me to believe DC is getting a 12-18" storm in March. So after 0z, if it still shows that, I'll give up.

New data is already in the models. We are no where DC , they will snow , we will not. Not you're storm. If u need to wait until Friday you may do so , the SLP gets to the Delmarva and then heads east. The NAO is our enemy this time. It's a shunt , it happens.

You never get anywhere close to the precip rates needed to snow.

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New data is already in the models. We are no where DC , they will snow , we will not. Not you're storm. If u need to wait until Friday you may do so , the SLP gets to the Delmarva and then heads east. The NAO is our enemy this time. It's a shunt , it happens. You never get anywhere close to the precip rates needed to snow.

I agree with you  - and this is going to be a light to moderate rainfall event for us - I suspected the new data was in the models and it changed very little in the outcome .....

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New data is already in the models. We are no where DC , they will snow , we will not. Not you're storm. If u need to wait until Friday you may do so , the SLP gets to the Delmarva and then heads east. The NAO is our enemy this time. It's a shunt , it happens. You never get anywhere close to the precip rates needed to snow.

Huh? if the storm doesn't move north. doesn't mean DC gets Snow. last time I checked, the EURO was really warm for them. 

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12 GEFS continues to be wetter than its previous run. Gets the 1.0 qpf line along the south shore of LI and NYC and most of CNJ. Just like 2/6/10 I ain't buyin it

the gfes showed nyc getting a foot right up until the storm started
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the gfes showed nyc getting a foot right up until the storm started

I remember it vividly. A foot might be sort of an exaggeration but we were always within the 0.75-1 range AT LEAST. So just like that time, I'm not buying it. I don't believe the cut off will be as dramatic but the end result will be the same, at least for most people north of CNJ

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I remember it vividly. A foot might be sort of an exaggeration but we were always within the 0.75-1 range AT LEAST. So just like that time, I'm not buying it. I don't believe the cut off will be as dramatic but the end result will be the same, at least for most people north of CNJ

Well actually they were pretty close here.But a bit too generous because it was a SMOOTHED OUT mean.  Remember how extreme the gradient was? Parts of SI (southwest part got in excess of warning criteria snow, reports of up to 10"? ) while other parts of the 5 borough could probably see the snow shield looking at the horizon. 

NJSnow_20100206.png

Here in the New Brunswick area there was 6-8" 

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Huh? if the storm doesn't move north. doesn't mean DC gets Snow. last time I checked, the EURO was really warm for them. 
.

Bro. Im just giving you my opinion , DC will start as rain and go over to a paste job. There 850 are cold enough , the back side flow will get them on a NNE flow and there rates are gona take care of cooling there column. The last 2 are not progged here.

You guys can buy the GEFS and it's more robust precip field , I just don't buy the GFS

3 weeks ago on valentines day a FRI at 12 z it printed out a ft of snow here and by 18z it printed out drizzle and that was 48 hrs out.

If the EURO changes I will

DC should snow and may not.

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