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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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I feel like even of this trends north it's not like the trend of a coastal North. Coastals create dynamics that allow for big events. This could track north with the precip field, but it's just not going to have what we need to create a big snow event. Tough pill, but the consistency of the models has really led me to believe we are out of the big snows.

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Guys. You can bring the precip field north but if you are on an EAST wind you dont snow. If you dont see that SLP north of deleware bay youre winds dont turn NE and with marginal BL you will get a cold rain. Where are youre winds on the ggem and gfs ? Still looks EAST too me. Gotta sort the center not the precip field.

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Guys. You can bring the precip field north but if you are on an EAST wind you dont snow. If you dont see that SLP north of deleware bay youre winds dont turn NE and with marginal BL you will get a cold rain. Where are youre winds on the ggem and gfs ? Still looks EAST too me. Gotta sort the center not the precip field.

 

The wind is NE when the precip falls on the GFS. 850's are cold enough, 925's are cold enough, 950's are cold enough. We might have rain to start, but when more northerly winds kick in, we get more colder air. The only places that should worry about mixing problems during the bulk of the storm are extreme eastern LI and coastal and S NJ.

 

Surface is warm no doubt, the snow will have a hard time sticking to the surface.

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Guest Pamela

its obvious as of right now that this storm will not be able to move up the coast to produce enough dynamics here to have a mainly snow event - need those dynamics in this situation to create and draw in cold enough surface temps because the surface temps progged are too warm so what ever falls will be mainly liquid in immediate NYC metro. Temps Wednesday and Thurs are progged to be in the 40's . So unless the future model runs bring this system farther north just off the coast to draw in some colder air its mainly a light to moderate rain event.

 

I gravely doubt temperatures will be in the 40's if precip is falling Wed & Thurs in the NYC area...mid-30's and a chilly rain maybe...and even that is looking less likely...but certainly not 40's. 

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Guest Pamela

Guys. You can bring the precip field north but if you are on an EAST wind you dont snow. If you dont see that SLP north of deleware bay youre winds dont turn NE and with marginal BL you will get a cold rain. Where are youre winds on the ggem and gfs ? Still looks EAST too me. Gotta sort the center not the precip field.

 

I thought I posted text outputs for winds last night, showing ENE quickly backing to NE...did you read my reply?

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The system is not a rapidly deepening system like we saw with the blizzard. The isallobaric wind effect in changing the winds to a more northerly component will not be as pronounced as it was with the blizzard to drain cold air to the coast. Also the mslp is too far to the south which would increase the likelihood of easterly winds.

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I thought I posted text outputs for winds last night, showing ENE quickly backing to NE...did you read my reply?

My apologizes i did not. I see them east on the euro and the ggem. 850 r good. But surface temps start warm and not sure we r NE. Can u repost the text

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Guest Pamela

My apologizes i did not. I see them east on the euro and the ggem. 850 r good. But surface temps start warm and not sure we r NE. Can u repost the text

6z GFS goes NE even earlier....

 

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=knyc

 

 

And remember...goodness knows...we all love the GFS...but the model could not forecast 2m temps remotely accurately if its very existence depended on it.

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From the 06Z GFS OP

993      37   75    Wed.   11am

988      36   72    Wed.   11pm

983      37   67    Thurs.  11am

982      39   65    Thurs.  11pm

986      38   64     Fri.     11am

986      37   61     Fri.     11pm

 

So it never bombs or gets near BM.   Rain shield barely reaches NYC.    We feel wind field for period shown,  25mph sustained at peak.   My times have already sprung ahead 1 hour, sorry.

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6z GFS goes NE even earlier....

 

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=knyc

 

 

And remember...goodness knows...we all love the GFS...but the model could not forecast 2m temps remotely accurately if its very existence depended on it.

 

Thank you , I will play my hand , ENE winds surface temps 35  and 850`s plus 1 . I just am not impressed .

The Euro has backed off on this and I just dont like the GFS ( I cant help it ) .

at 12z the Euro will have a full day of data on the grid here over land , I cant imagine we are goin to see

some big jump north . The NAO is keeping the SE ridge at bay and it just seems EAST to me not NE .

Will know by 130 today fo sure .

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I'm encouraged right now with the GEFS being very wet as they are. I think the 12z GFS will be pretty telling, as to see if the 6z GEFS have a clue with their wet solution.

FYI, the gefs gave our latitude over 1.50"qpf within 24 hrs of the feb 6, 2010 storm...it was a garbage then and it's garbage now

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Guest Pamela

Thank you , I will play my hand , ENE winds surface temps 35  and 850`s plus 1 . I just am not impressed .

The Euro has backed off on this and I just dont like the GFS ( I cant help it ) .

at 12z the Euro will have a full day of data on the grid here over land , I cant imagine we are goin to see

some big jump north . The NAO is keeping the SE ridge at bay and it just seems EAST to me not NE .

Will know by 130 today fo sure .

 

Not sure what you are reading...850's get no higher than -5 C or -6 C...you might be in the wrong column...where 925 mb temps do rise to 0 C.

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FYI, the gefs gave our latitude over 1.50"qpf within 24 hrs of the feb 6, 2010 storm...it was a garbage then and it's garbage now

 

Agree in this case - The GEFS are a smoothed mean.  The higher resolution giuidance will be more useful for qpf/gradient potential and the ensembles for slp/upper air trends and comparisons on this one. With that said there are still 60 hours to go before the storm begins to impact the Mid Atlantic.  But for us north of Philly/Trenton it doesnt look to promising.

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Insane gradient on the nam

There's going to be a very sharp gradient somewhere most likely, almost always happens when you have a massive zone of confluence and dry air to deal with. Look at the strong NE winds along the Jersey Shore. That would be a huge coastal flood threat unfortunately.

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Insane gradient on the nam

Most of the QPF is confined to a small area as well, pretty much all in the state of Virginia. Pretty small storm if you look at it, only significant because luckily it's targeting a densely populated area on this forum. In the end this will probably end up being a Nesis 1, if that.. No phase with the northern stream to bring a storm with a huge precip shield from NC to Maine like was shown by some models 3-4 days ago 

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