Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The 9z SREF appears to be further north, brining the .5 line to about Rt. 80 and the .75 line to about Trenton to Asbury Park line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I feel like even of this trends north it's not like the trend of a coastal North. Coastals create dynamics that allow for big events. This could track north with the precip field, but it's just not going to have what we need to create a big snow event. Tough pill, but the consistency of the models has really led me to believe we are out of the big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Guys. You can bring the precip field north but if you are on an EAST wind you dont snow. If you dont see that SLP north of deleware bay youre winds dont turn NE and with marginal BL you will get a cold rain. Where are youre winds on the ggem and gfs ? Still looks EAST too me. Gotta sort the center not the precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Guys. You can bring the precip field north but if you are on an EAST wind you dont snow. If you dont see that SLP north of deleware bay youre winds dont turn NE and with marginal BL you will get a cold rain. Where are youre winds on the ggem and gfs ? Still looks EAST too me. Gotta sort the center not the precip field. The wind is NE when the precip falls on the GFS. 850's are cold enough, 925's are cold enough, 950's are cold enough. We might have rain to start, but when more northerly winds kick in, we get more colder air. The only places that should worry about mixing problems during the bulk of the storm are extreme eastern LI and coastal and S NJ. Surface is warm no doubt, the snow will have a hard time sticking to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 its obvious as of right now that this storm will not be able to move up the coast to produce enough dynamics here to have a mainly snow event - need those dynamics in this situation to create and draw in cold enough surface temps because the surface temps progged are too warm so what ever falls will be mainly liquid in immediate NYC metro. Temps Wednesday and Thurs are progged to be in the 40's . So unless the future model runs bring this system farther north just off the coast to draw in some colder air its mainly a light to moderate rain event. I gravely doubt temperatures will be in the 40's if precip is falling Wed & Thurs in the NYC area...mid-30's and a chilly rain maybe...and even that is looking less likely...but certainly not 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Guys. You can bring the precip field north but if you are on an EAST wind you dont snow. If you dont see that SLP north of deleware bay youre winds dont turn NE and with marginal BL you will get a cold rain. Where are youre winds on the ggem and gfs ? Still looks EAST too me. Gotta sort the center not the precip field. I thought I posted text outputs for winds last night, showing ENE quickly backing to NE...did you read my reply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The system is not a rapidly deepening system like we saw with the blizzard. The isallobaric wind effect in changing the winds to a more northerly component will not be as pronounced as it was with the blizzard to drain cold air to the coast. Also the mslp is too far to the south which would increase the likelihood of easterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I thought I posted text outputs for winds last night, showing ENE quickly backing to NE...did you read my reply? My apologizes i did not. I see them east on the euro and the ggem. 850 r good. But surface temps start warm and not sure we r NE. Can u repost the text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 My apologizes i did not. I see them east on the euro and the ggem. 850 r good. But surface temps start warm and not sure we r NE. Can u repost the text 6z GFS goes NE even earlier.... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=knyc And remember...goodness knows...we all love the GFS...but the model could not forecast 2m temps remotely accurately if its very existence depended on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 From the 06Z GFS OP 993 37 75 Wed. 11am 988 36 72 Wed. 11pm 983 37 67 Thurs. 11am 982 39 65 Thurs. 11pm 986 38 64 Fri. 11am 986 37 61 Fri. 11pm So it never bombs or gets near BM. Rain shield barely reaches NYC. We feel wind field for period shown, 25mph sustained at peak. My times have already sprung ahead 1 hour, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Low on the beaches of the southern tip of the Delmarva, 1036 high in southern Quebec and no/minimal precip north of cape may... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm encouraged right now with the GEFS being very wet as they are. I think the 12z GFS will be pretty telling, as to see if the 6z GEFS have a clue with their wet solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 6z GFS goes NE even earlier.... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=knyc And remember...goodness knows...we all love the GFS...but the model could not forecast 2m temps remotely accurately if its very existence depended on it. Thank you , I will play my hand , ENE winds surface temps 35 and 850`s plus 1 . I just am not impressed . The Euro has backed off on this and I just dont like the GFS ( I cant help it ) . at 12z the Euro will have a full day of data on the grid here over land , I cant imagine we are goin to see some big jump north . The NAO is keeping the SE ridge at bay and it just seems EAST to me not NE . Will know by 130 today fo sure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Precip field is further north.. Someone in NoVa is gonna get buried.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm encouraged right now with the GEFS being very wet as they are. I think the 12z GFS will be pretty telling, as to see if the 6z GEFS have a clue with their wet solution. FYI, the gefs gave our latitude over 1.50"qpf within 24 hrs of the feb 6, 2010 storm...it was a garbage then and it's garbage now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Thank you , I will play my hand , ENE winds surface temps 35 and 850`s plus 1 . I just am not impressed . The Euro has backed off on this and I just dont like the GFS ( I cant help it ) . at 12z the Euro will have a full day of data on the grid here over land , I cant imagine we are goin to see some big jump north . The NAO is keeping the SE ridge at bay and it just seems EAST to me not NE . Will know by 130 today fo sure . Not sure what you are reading...850's get no higher than -5 C or -6 C...you might be in the wrong column...where 925 mb temps do rise to 0 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Insane gradient on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 FYI, the gefs gave our latitude over 1.50"qpf within 24 hrs of the feb 6, 2010 storm...it was a garbage then and it's garbage now Every single model has it's ups and downs in terms of accuracy. One error does not somehow discredit them for every single storm in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Insane gradient on the nam That's what you're gonna see, wherever it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Every single model has it's ups and downs in terms of accuracy. One error does not somehow discredit them for every single storm in the future. You are missing the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's what you're gonna see, wherever it is. I think the ECMWF has a better shot at being right than the NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 FYI, the gefs gave our latitude over 1.50"qpf within 24 hrs of the feb 6, 2010 storm...it was a garbage then and it's garbage now Agree in this case - The GEFS are a smoothed mean. The higher resolution giuidance will be more useful for qpf/gradient potential and the ensembles for slp/upper air trends and comparisons on this one. With that said there are still 60 hours to go before the storm begins to impact the Mid Atlantic. But for us north of Philly/Trenton it doesnt look to promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS just made about a 50 mile further northwest shift, as it moves out the upper level energy over us a bit quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well north on this run with meaningful QPF getting up to the south shore of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Insane gradient on the nam There's going to be a very sharp gradient somewhere most likely, almost always happens when you have a massive zone of confluence and dry air to deal with. Look at the strong NE winds along the Jersey Shore. That would be a huge coastal flood threat unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Insane gradient on the nam Most of the QPF is confined to a small area as well, pretty much all in the state of Virginia. Pretty small storm if you look at it, only significant because luckily it's targeting a densely populated area on this forum. In the end this will probably end up being a Nesis 1, if that.. No phase with the northern stream to bring a storm with a huge precip shield from NC to Maine like was shown by some models 3-4 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 .10 line now runs though Northwest NJ and just north of NYC, .25 line now roughly along Rt. 78 and the south shore of Long Island, .50 line runs through South Jersey and along the coast as far north as about Toms River, all of Cape May County is now in the 1.00-1.50 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 .25 line now roughly along Rt. 78 and the south shore of Long Island. .10 line now runs though Northwest NJ and just north of NYC. Is there a snow fall map available for 12z? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Is there a snow fall map available for 12z? Rossi It's all rain verbatim. We would need heavier preciep rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Very weak storm as well...i think that we see continued slow northern trend in models. If this were a mid atl winter, id toss out climo but its not. I do think jackpot is Hagerstown to bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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