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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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Well, glad to see that you have this one figured out with such certainty 5 days out.

Lol, exactly we only need 100 - 150 mile shift north at this point to get rocked.

Lol....if it showed us in the bullseye or getting hit hard would you say "we'll let's not be too sure....this might shift 100-150 miles south and completely miss us" ? No :P

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Lol, exactly we only need 100 - 150 mile shift north at this point to get rocked.

Doesn't matter-if the confluence is too strong the precip will get shunted east and we get little/nothing. 2/6/10, many of us only needed another 20 miles or so. :axe:

 

I'm more interested in the trends of the block/confluence than the low in terms of getting precip up here (whether it's rain or snow is another question). If it's weak enough I think we get into the action. Hopefully also it's fast moving enough not to generate a large surge and wave pounding for the beaches.

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Lol....if it showed us in the bullseye or getting hit hard would you say "we'll let's not be too sure....this might shift 100-150 miles south and completely miss us" ? No :P

It's the GFS so actually yes I'd say exactly that especially considering how the model runs have unfolded for several days.

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One thing that is notable is that the SLP never cranks. In fact, once the models started to downplay any NE movement in the system up the coast, we saw much less impressive intensification. What I think that is throwing everyone off is that the gradient with a 1033 mb high to the north creating significant packing of the isobars. One would think that we were dealing with a monster 970 mb low, but the lowest that the Euro has this system going is 996 mb.

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Im just going to wait for tomorrows. 0z to say Next. If is still shows a south solution...good for DC

 

Warm surface with the heaviest precip south of them on the euro, which is pretty much a slap in the face for them if that happened

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The amount of wish casting in this thread is ridiculus. Obviously we pretty much all want to get hit but without much northern stream interaction there really isn't much to pull this thing farther north. Out best bet is for the block to show up weaker (and further north) and the confluence to be further north and east to allow for This bowling ball to come further north. There's still a possibility of it happening but we need much more help than many think. I hate to squash optimism but don't rely on the NAMs positioning of the shortwave, it's been nothing short of awful this year, especially in it's later panels. Possible yes, probable no.

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By 12 z today the Euro will have a full sampling of the SW on the grid , If its a shunt at that time its a shunt .The NAO is 3 SD below normal and is the overpowering signal, there is just too much confluence as the ULL is stuck under  the block and just cant escape , you will not spin this up.

I  trust the Euro at this range and it has been consistent , 1 more run with this onshore and thats enough for me .

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If I'm not mistaken, this is the wettest the GEFS have ever been for the region. Would not surprise me at all to see the 12z GFS tick northwest based off of so many GFS members being NW of the Operational GFS.

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Good post Bluewave.  The NAO is rising based off the CPC map. With the NAO rising, the storm should be further north than what the op models are showing.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

The problem is the ULL. We need the ULL to move out quicker than what the GFS and Euro are showing. The GFS is slightly more amped up on the 6z GFS run than the 0z run.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/avnloop.html

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The models are holding serve with the very strong blocking taking the brunt of the storm to our south.

This is why we usually get the big storms here once the AO starts rising, not when it's at the lowest

point like it will be in a few days.

Wasn't the last big storm with a falling NAO though ?

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Aw c'mon Ant. Just when I was ready to walk away and enjoy my Sunday...

Hate to say it, but need the Euro at either 12z or 0z before I go back to being glued to the runs... However, today the energy is all in view.

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Slightly north of the the operational run but no major differences.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS096.gif

its obvious as of right now that this storm will not be able to move up the coast to produce enough dynamics here to have a mainly snow event - need those dynamics in this situation to create and draw in cold enough surface temps because the surface temps progged are too warm so what ever falls will be mainly liquid in immediate NYC metro. Temps Wednesday and Thurs are progged to be in the 40's . So unless the future model runs bring this system farther north just off the coast to draw in some colder air its mainly a light to moderate rain event.
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