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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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The Pac vort just comes in a little too fast for my liking. The northern stream/block timing is a little off on this run...hopefully its not a trend but it has been all year. You can see the Pac vort coming ashore at 60 hours and it just screams through the CONUS. The ridge builds out west and the Pac vort slides southeast underneath the northern stream stuff...until it phases offshore. The mean trough has been just slightly too far east for us this year and this would fit perfectly.

 

 

Certainly a concern: the shortwave just moves so quickly that the northern stream won't even have time to catch up with it until it's too late.

 

But considering how much everything else improved, this was a great run in my eyes. Hopefully it's a trend and not a blip. Perhaps the new data that NCEP ingested into the models made a difference tonight. 

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The Pac vort just comes in a little too fast for my liking. The northern stream/block timing is a little off on this run...hopefully its not a trend but it has been all year. You can see the Pac vort coming ashore at 60 hours and it just screams through the CONUS. The ridge builds out west and the Pac vort slides southeast underneath the northern stream stuff...until it phases offshore. The mean trough has been just slightly too far east for us this year and this would fit perfectly.

 

Have we had this type of block with any of the storms this year?

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Have we had this type of block with any of the storms this year?

 

The block has very little impact on the speed of the flow over the Central US before it builds in. In addition, look at the orientation of the 500mb height field on the GFS at hour 84. The confluent flow over the East Coast is forcing the shortwave to track from NW to SE.

 

So regardless of the phase, the entire thing is starting off way too far south and east for my liking if the models are correct.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_0z/f84.gif

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A high pressure system that high vs a bombing low would yield a ridiculous pressure gradient which would probably produce winds that would rival Boxing Day.

its way to far away too have that type of affect

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The block has very little impact on the speed of the flow over the Central US before it builds in. In addition, look at the orientation of the 500mb height field on the GFS at hour 84. The confluent flow over the East Coast is forcing the shortwave to track from NW to SE.

 

So regardless of the phase, the entire thing is starting off way too far south and east for my liking if the models are correct.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_0z/f84.gif

 

i see what you're saying. But don't you think that if the northern stream phased quicker it would have pumped heights more off the EC..I think that would have tugged this storm much closer to the mid atlantic coast if that happened

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i see what you're saying. But don't you think that if the northern stream phased quicker it would have pumped heights more off the EC..I think that would have tugged this storm much closer to the mid atlantic coast if that happened

 

Yes. But what mechanism is going to force the northern stream to phase quicker? The block would need to build in faster, which also would suppress the height field. The only way this works is if the Euro is correct from a night or two ago, when it broke off the Northern Stream ULL piece...but kept it farther south over the Great Lakes so the phase could occur earlier.

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Yes. But what mechanism is going to force the northern stream to phase quicker? The block would need to build in faster, which also would suppress the height field. The only way this works is if the Euro is correct from a night or two ago, when it broke off the Northern Stream ULL piece...but kept it farther south over the Great Lakes so the phase could occur earlier.

 

So you're saying we have no shot basically? 

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Yes. But what mechanism is going to force the northern stream to phase quicker? The block would need to build in faster, which also would suppress the height field. The only way this works is if the Euro is correct from a night or two ago, when it broke off the Northern Stream ULL piece...but kept it farther south over the Great Lakes so the phase could occur earlier.

 

With the ULL over the northeast completely gone now, as opposed to 18z where it just sat there, the block would connect with the SE ridge and force an earlier phase and negative tilt. I really think if there were minor tweaks this run would have sent everyone into a frenzy..Just look how close it gets even with a sloppy late phase

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Yes. But what mechanism is going to force the northern stream to phase quicker? The block would need to build in faster, which also would suppress the height field. The only way this works is if the Euro is correct from a night or two ago, when it broke off the Northern Stream ULL piece...but kept it farther south over the Great Lakes so the phase could occur earlier.

 

 

Good point. However, I think we can get away with just the subtle adjustment to the block that would allow the northern stream piece to drop in without compromising the height field to the point where we can't recover. 

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With the ULL over the northeast completely gone now, as opposed to 18z where it just sat there, the block would connect with the SE ridge and force an earlier phase and negative tilt. I really think if there were minor tweaks this run would have sent everyone into a frenzy..Just look how close it gets even with a sloppy late phase

 

 

The block connecting with the SE ridge also means that we can certainly afford a later phase, as our southern stream storm would actually be able to amplify a bit, slow down, and not scoot off to the east right away. This is how the "hook back" scenario almost happened. You don't get the hook back scenario unless the block is in the position it's modeled.

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I actually think the Canadian is showing the likely outcome. GFS is notorious for being terrible dealing with northern stream phasing situations. If this thing cranks like the Euro has been showing, WAA is going to going crazy and heights are going to get pumped. Honestly, it wouldn't shock me to see a situation that is similar to the Jan. 2000 event where you get a monster band move west, drop 5-10 inches of snow, and then stall over E PA and MD. I think it's ludicrous to even joke about a NC or S VA snowstorm. If I had a dollar that "someone" hyped up an event such as that and it headed way NW...well I probably could probably retire. I suspect the Euro tonight is going to be real amped.

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I actually think the Canadian is showing the likely outcome. GFS is notorious for being terrible dealing with northern stream phasing situations. If this thing cranks like the Euro has been showing, WAA is going to going crazy and heights are going to get pumped. Honestly, it wouldn't shock me to see a situation that is similar to the Jan. 2000 event where you get a monster band move west, drop 5-10 inches of snow, and then stall over E PA and MD. I think it's ludicrous to even joke about a NC or S VA snowstorm. If I had a dollar that "someone" hyped up an event such as that and it headed way NW...well I probably could probably retire. I suspect the Euro tonight is going to be real amped.

Yes very interested in what the Euro shows. With the trend of the GFS and GGM, if the Euro shows a good event we may be in business.

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I think we have to be careful what we wish for. Just like we can't rely on a 6 day snowstorm, we can't rely on a 6 day miss. That being said, with such an enormous block, this system could take a Sandy track.

So far we seeing the ULL lift out and block connecting more to the SE Ridge, models tonight. A good sign that this will be able come further north. Whether it all comes together perfectly or ideal for a big snowstorm, isn't that important right now.

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Yes. The S/W won't be over Seattle until 84 hrs from this morning's 6z model run ( you do the math, I'm too tired to).

Isn't the energy still over the pacific ocean? Don't models hand storms better once they enter the continental US? 

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