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Potential Winter Storm March 6-7


NEG NAO

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I like the odds for snow much more once you get to about I-287 and then west/north. East winds can still be a big detriment east of there, but dynamics can take over and keep it snow-so hopefully we see more VV's and strong lift approach our area-light-mod stratiform precip might not be enough to do it. And from this point on, it gets harder to accumulate during the day if it's only a light-moderate snow. It would be good to get much of it at night.

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0Z NAM info:

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0135Z SUN MAR 03 2013THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION STARTED ON TIME.00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...72558/OAX - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014276654/MZL - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014291765/PPG - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014278016/BDA - PART B IS MISSING91334/TKK - PART B IS MISSING04339/OBY - DELETED ALL WINDS...ERRATIC

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The block is stronger this run, and the confluence squashes heights along the coast, and thus the end result is southeast of the 18z GFS solution.

 

The backside ridging is also significantly weaker. The vort isn't digging that much.

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QPF seems grossly underdone so far with the models... considering the near perfect setup and upper air support for this thing to go to town..

 

We should see higher forecasted QPF totals the next day or so.

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I really am not seeing any sort of northern trend here. If anything, it has kind of leveled off and begun to trend a bit further south. Anyone between S VA and DE is in the game at this point. Up here still maybe a few inches is possible but not a huge storm by any meana

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I really am not seeing any sort of northern trend here. If anything, it has kind of leveled off and begun to trend a bit further south. Anyone between S VA and DE is in the game at this point. Up here still maybe a few inches is possible but not a huge storm by any meana

 

Well, glad to see that you have this one figured out with such certainty 5 days out. 

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