nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Very sharp cutoff and the storm drifts back SSE because there is nothing to pull it up the coast! NYC still gets a light snowfall verbatim. The 500mb low was located off the coast of OBX on the 12z GFS; this run has the bowling ball centered inland at the NC/VA border. Definitely an improvement but we could still use the 5H low further north and developing a bit later so the best dynamics play out over NYC, not DC. That would help with temperatures too, though this looks cold enough at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like a solid MECS for DC...NYC gets a few inches. Temperatures look cold enough. North trend kicking in folks. We knew this probably wouldn't remain a southern VA threat. It's gone from a NC threat to a RIC/ORF threat to a DC/BWI/PHL threat in the last few runs. I think NYC is on the edge of a major snowfall. Temperatures look a lot better too on the 18z GFS as the high pressure really holds the cold air in and the dynamics are stronger further north because of the track. Much better look. It will only be a northern trend if the Euro and ensembles show it over the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Total precip http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p60.gif. Yeh it does and that was very painful Looks like 2/6/10 on this image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Total precip http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p60.gif Looks like 2/6/10 on this image About .25" of QPF for NYC, so maybe 1-3". ACY gets a MECS with around 1" of QPF so probably a 6-10" event with poor ratios due to the milder boundary layer later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This looks like a mid atlantic special. There is no evidence to pull this up the coastline. Let DC/BWI/PHL have there storm. We already had ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It will only be a northern trend if the Euro and ensembles show it over the next few runs. Euro and the ensembles did trend north but not enough. There is a northern trend today on all the models except for the Ukie. The confluence on the GFS moved out faster on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This looks like a mid atlantic special. There is no evidence to pull this up the coastline. Let DC/BWI/PHL have there storm. We already had ours.. Another debbie downer! The north trend just started! Players are gonna get sampled! As you can see models slowly picking up on things like ULL moving out quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 About .25" of QPF for NYC, so maybe 1-3". ACY gets a MECS with around 1" of QPF so probably a 6-10" event with poor ratios due to the milder boundary layer later in the season. there was also more confluence on feb 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This looks like a mid atlantic special. There is no evidence to pull this up the coastline. Let DC/BWI/PHL have there storm. We already had ours. When the storm is 100hrs out and we are within 100 miles of getting something good, you don't let anyone have anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 When the storm is 100hrs out and we are within 100 miles of getting something good, you don't let anyone have anything. The runs today did what I thought they would according to climo: adjust somewhat north. The block is slightly weaker on the 18z GFS at 102 hours than the 12z GFS at 102 hours with no closed 552dm contour over Quebec, and that means the ULL tracks about 50-75 miles further north, with precipitation getting all the way up towards Poughkeepsie. The precip shield is also getting a bit larger as these coastal storms tend to. There's a lot of easterly inflow to the north of the storm, on the order of 3 standard deviations at 850mb, so that should allow the precipitation to reach NYC even if the low exits near the VA border or Delmarva area. This reminds me a bit of the 1/27/2010 RIC special as well as 2/6/2010, but the blocking isn't quite as overwhelming and it's later in the season, which favors people further north. That's also going to create a larger snowstorm, as BL issues will be much less near NYC than down near RIC since the 1040mb high is closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The 12z GFS was north of the 6z and the 18z is now WELL north of the 12z. I think the trend towards a less suppressed solution is becoming evident. Dont forget the inferior verification scores of the 06z and 18z gfs relative to the 12z and 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z Navgem is well north of 12zhttps://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013030218∏=prpτ=108&set=All A lot of precip on the Navgem up to NYC. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013030218∏=prpτ=114&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Gfs ensembles should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Total precip http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p60.gif. Yeh it does and that was very painful Looks like 2/6/10 on this image Confluence was much stronger on 2/6/10, The 50/50 low in that storm was one stubborn mofo. It was truly agonizing watching the model runs for that storm.I'm,sorry but the confluence in this situation is not nearly as preventive in blocking this from coming a bit further north. Reminds me a bit of the 12/19/10 storm. If you recall confluence was putting a halt to the northern extent of the precip, but weakened as we got within 72 hours. Weenie mode engaged. Mark my words guys.This is coming north. I bet even Boston cashes in. This isn't a wishcast, but based on the assumption that the confluence will trend weaker, which I think will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This looks like a mid atlantic special. There is no evidence to pull this up the coastline. Let DC/BWI/PHL have there storm. We already had ours. Washington's National Airport with just 8.7 inches of snow over the last 13 March's combined (2000 - 2012). Tells you one of two things...either they are overdue or the climatological probabilities of major snow down there in March are pretty slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Confluence was much stronger on 2/6/10, The 50/50 low in that storm was one stubborn mofo. It was truly agonizing watching the model runs for that storm.I'm,sorry but the confluence in this situation is not nearly as preventive in blocking. Hjhn this from coming a bit further north. Reminds me a bit of the 12/19/10 storm. If you recall confluence was putting a halt to the northern bbbextent of the precip, but weakened as we got bbbwithin 72 hours. Weenie mode engaged. Mark my words guys.This is coming north. I bet even Boston bbbcashes in. This isn't a wishcast, but based on the assumption that the confluence will trend weaker, which I think will happen. . I totally agree! I was saying all alont ! This confluence is much weaker! This is coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It may snow in the end but thats not snow on the 18z for nyc. .25 inches of liquid is never good enough to overcome marginal BL on an EAST wind. The 925 mb are too warm and disrupt the column. You will nd ths center to come N of AC to turn ur winds NE. This is the type of system as progged can crush the suburbs of DC and rain in NYC. Unless that center not the precip shield comes 100 miles N ww prob dont snow. If the ULL and its confluence can be displacex u can achieve that Its 100 hrs out so u hav a lil time. But as progged thats not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z Navgem is well north of 12z https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_. 2013030218∏=prpτ=108&set=All. A lot of precip on the Navgem up to NYC. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?dnsndarea=nvg_namer&dtg=2013030218∏=prpτ=114&set=All Much colder than the old NAVGEM aswelll wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The NAO is rising. I think the north trend is for real.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z navgem is a crush job for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Washington's National Airport with just 8.7 inches of snow over the last 13 March's combined (2000 - 2012). Tells you one of two things...either they are overdue or the climatological probabilities of major snow down there in March are pretty slim. that's because they got all their snow for those 13 March's in Feb. 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Confluence was much stronger on 2/6/10, The 50/50 low in that storm was one stubborn mofo. It was truly agonizing watching the model runs for that storm.I'm,sorry but the confluence in this situation is not nearly as preventive in blocking this from coming a bit further north. Reminds me a bit of the 12/19/10 storm. If you recall confluence was putting a halt to the northern extent of the precip, but weakened as we got within 72 hours. Weenie mode engaged. Mark my words guys.This is coming north. I bet even Boston cashes in. This isn't a wishcast, but based on the assumption that the confluence will trend weaker, which I think will happen. Just in case anyone forgot how painful that was...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It may snow in the end but thats not snow on the 18z for nyc. .25 inches of liquid is never good enough to overcome marginal BL on an EAST wind. The 925 mb are too warm and disrupt the column. You will nd ths center to come N of AC to turn ur winds NE. This is the type of system as progged can crush the suburbs of DC and rain in NYC. Unless that center not the precip shield comes 100 miles N ww prob dont snow. If the ULL and its confluence can be displacex u can achieve that Its 100 hrs out so u hav a lil time. But as progged thats not snow With the surface as depicted by the 18z GFS....that looks like a 45 degree wind for NYC to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z DGEX is painful as well as the GFS as of now! That cutoff is insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Washington's National Airport with just 8.7 inches of snow over the last 13 March's combined (2000 - 2012). Tells you one of two things...either they are overdue or the climatological probabilities of major snow down there in March are pretty slim. Apparently your not familiar with National airport, places 2 miles away can get 2 feet and they will measure 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z DGEX is painful as well as the GFS as of now! That cutoff is insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Apparently your not familiar with National airport, places 2 miles away can get 2 feet and they will measure 2 inches. I'm very familiar...just quoting a statistic. I know Dulles is a good deal snowier off to the west and 440' higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm very familiar...just quoting a statistic. I know Dulles is a good deal snowier off to the west and 440' higher. But seriously in bigger storms places 2 miles from there measure 6 inches more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z DGEX is painful as well as the GFS as of now! That cutoff is insane! . Also a very weird H5 evolution! Based on that map looks like the cutoff is too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think it will trend further north over time. It won't take too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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