MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro is north of 0z which is good . Still have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro is north of 0z which is good . Still have time. How much as in miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 From a pro-forecaster in the Mid-Atlantic forum in reference the Euro ensembles: gets .5" up to near philly in an e/w band -- .25" up to about NYC tho mainly misses long island etc to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Interesting that the euro mean is north of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NAM is north, drives the primary into OH, although still redevelops a secondary in NC/VA, prob would have some precip in the area based off the model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 00z V 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM mean is impressive. Colder than the op and about .50 + for NYC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NAM is north, drives the primary into OH, although still redevelops a secondary in NC/VA, prob would have some precip in the area based off the model run. I'm not one to extrapolate an 18z nam run but it's the last threat of the season so why not...I have a hard time believing the amount of intense vorticity heading towards the coast on this run would be stopped by a puny area of confluence. I'd say this would definitely bring heavy precip into our area...similar to the GGEM. Whether that heavy precip would be snow is a different story, but Mount Zucker would probably do pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm not one to extrapolate an 18z nam run but it's the last threat of the season so why not...I have a hard time believing the amount of intense vorticity heading towards the coast on this run would be stopped by a puny area of confluence. I'd say this would definitely bring heavy precip into our area...similar to the GGEM. Whether that heavy precip would be snow is a different story, but Mount Zucker would probably do pretty good Euro ensembles reload the west coast ridge and nao block by mid-March. I wouldn't say this is the last event of the season. Depending on the mjo also, I can see a big coastal showing up in the March 18-24 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z GFS initialized! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro ensembles reload the west coast ridge and nao block by mid-March. I wouldn't say this is the last event of the season. Depending on the mjo also, I can see a big coastal showing up in the March 18-24 period. I can see the pattern becoming colder with blocking again by by mid-March with the euro ensembles bringing the MJO into the COD as of the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Through HR 57 our shortwave looks slightly more neutral than at HR 51 12z. On the 12z it was slightly more positive the shortwave. !! Now at HR66 our shortwave looks less amped and has pess of a NEG tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks so far too have more interaction with the northern stream And looks to me as the ULL swings out quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 There is less confluence on this GFS run which is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro ensembles reload the west coast ridge and nao block by mid-March. I wouldn't say this is the last event of the season.Depending on the mjo also, I can see a big coastal showing up in the March 18-24 period. I think there will be a warm period March 10-13 followed by a colder stretch in the March 15-25 time frame...that's still early enough for the coast to get a decent snowfall if the western ridge redevelops as some models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Wow less confluence weaker block! The north trend has commenced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The good precipitation amounts on the GFS are very close to the region. Not a bad look at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 There is less confluence on this GFS run which is great. which results in...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 DC gonna get clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The 12z GFS was north of the 6z and the 18z is now WELL north of the 12z. I think the trend towards a less suppressed solution is becoming evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 which results in...... Northern trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 At 102, close to 0.25" has fallen in TTN over the last 6 hours with precipitation still falling. This is pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Wow! What a great sign too see that confluence move out about 12 hrs earlier compared too 12z! This lets heights bounce back a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Gfs further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Then the vort drifts south east!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like a solid MECS for DC...NYC gets a few inches. Temperatures look cold enough. North trend kicking in folks. We knew this probably wouldn't remain a southern VA threat. It's gone from a NC threat to a RIC/ORF threat to a DC/BWI/PHL threat in the last few runs. I think NYC is on the edge of a major snowfall. Temperatures look a lot better too on the 18z GFS as the high pressure really holds the cold air in and the dynamics are stronger further north because of the track. Much better look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Very sharp cutoff and the storm drifts back SSE because there is nothing to pull it up the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is not a bad look right now with the surface and precip reflection on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like a solid MECS for DC...NYC gets a few inches. Temperatures look cold enough. North trend kicking in folks. We knew this probably wouldn't remain a southern VA threat. It's gone from a NC threat to a RIC/ORF threat to a DC/BWI/PHL threat in the last few runs. I think NYC is on the edge of a major snowfall. Temperatures look a lot better too on the 18z GFS as the high pressure really holds the cold air in and the dynamics are stronger further north because of the track. Much better look. . DC gets clobbered i mean wow! I have too look at the snowfall maps! Will be very very telling of wheather this was a trend or not depending on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Total precip http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p60.gif Looks like 2/6/10 on this image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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